I bet 2014 hires can hold CA by the end of 2020.

IF you predict the base and equipment, then I'll be impressed.

It’s possible.
However, since more and more long term by-passing FOs are bidding left seat I’m betting on 2014 hires being able to hold first available left seat some 8 years later or 2022..
..and add about two years to that (10 years - 2024) if we open a 747 sdf domicile.

I'd be willing to bet an sdf 747 base would shorten upgrade times on various fleets. That would cause a lot of movement.

Sure BUT we’ve got hundreds of senior FOs bypassing right now. Not sure what the actual number is but I believe it has to be at least 500+?
If there’s a 747 base in sdf I bet you some 75-90% of those senior FOs will bid captain.

Why? Well, we’ve got 63 1/2 year olds bidding 74 in ANC right now just so they get to retire on the whale. A 74 Louisville base would increase their numbers exponentially..

Which is why I think an sdf base would stagnate upgrades somewhat. I’m guessing an extra ~2 years versus no SDF 74 base?
I’m frequently wrong of course so ymmv..

If we're still here the way mgmnt running this joint. 😞

540 bypassing

Thanks.. betting on only 150-200 bypassing once there’s a 74 sdf domicile..

History of bypassing suggests it will remain about same percentage. These folks don't need a new domicile bid to move to the left. They intentionally pass every bid. Quality of life issue is usually primary reason to bypass. Many permanent FO's until 63 + till 64 to leave with Captain A Plan.
An eventual SDF 74 domicile won't change quality of life issues anymore than UPS will change scheduling patterns to be more "like the old days"
If anything, opine that scheduling quality provides and continues to be the incentive to bypass if quality of life is primary.
No doubt many seats will change hands if have a new domicile bid.

As always you provide a very good perspective. One day, when BT decides to retire (and I hope he’ll stick around for many years to come) I hope you’ll run for prez. You’d certainly have my vote.

Time will tell. I think whale is a different animal and that bringing it to sdf would change people’s bidding preferences, especially those who’ve been bypassing for many years.
We’ll see. It’s a good “problem” to worry about..