Compass Updates 2: Revenge of the Sit

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"Cpz sold to Republic fall of 2019, stamp it!"

Sadly, that opportunity may have come and gone. How many regional CEOs have tried to play hardball with Delta and lost?
time stamp me and place your bets here. Calling it on page 137 Jan 6 2019.

Within the next 8-14 months, compass begins handing delta jets at ~3 per month to YX/OO/EDV, who will have no issues staffing/taking them. Hiring and upgrades freeze and furlough begins in reverse seniority order. The memo will come out announcing this painfully late, just weeks before the handoff begins.

This is a painful future but it’s honestly much more likely than any other outcome.

If I’m wrong and we don’t end up on the street, then that is great news and I owe y’all some drinks.
Quote: Option 1: CP folds into RP.
or
Option 2: CP-DL goes to 9E (operated initially separate) & CP-AA goes to MQ (without the crews). Majority of crews offered continued employment with 9E, rest are furloughed and MQ offers preferential hire to CP crews.
Please Daddy D, buy your stepson back from the bad man.
Alright I think we beat this to death and we won't have any information until it's too late. Let's help each other get out so we don't have to be here, write letters of Rec, recommend a friend to that news letter, share some volunteer opportunities. But for now can we change the record? Y'all are bumming me out. Who do are we rooting for the Super Bowl?
Quote: Who would then basically have to reestablish our bases and pilot force.

This appears to be a high level game of chicken the exact terms of which we are not privy to. As it gets down to the nitty gritty, the decision will ultimately be Deltas because they own the birds, and if 35 birds go away the primary assets that Hulas has - the pilots, maintenance, training and and support facilities threaten to become an expensive liability rather than an asset. But the cost of letting all the airframes sit idle while those assets are reconstituted by someone else - and the expense of reconstituting them - is not trivial either, not even to someone with the capital of Delta.

Ultimately I think someone is going to win the game of chicken, and the other party will blink first. But until each side gets edgy enough about losing money to start dealing seriously, the game of chicken will continue.

But given the long lead time necessary to prep for anything but a simple contract extension, both TSH and Delta management are - I'm sure - already talking.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. They don’t need to replicate bases. OO already has all the west bases they need to take your flying. YX has the staff to take your airplanes. The CP airplanes shift to YX, allowing them to take over the NYC/east coast 175 flying OO is doing, allowing OO to move their airframes west to take the current CP flying.
Quote: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. They don’t need to replicate bases. OO already has all the west bases they need to take your flying. YX has the staff to take your airplanes. The CP airplanes shift to YX, allowing them to take over the NYC/east coast 175 flying OO is doing, allowing OO to move their airframes west to take the current CP flying.
That’s what people are missing. The infrastructure for this transition started to be laid last year. Once the airframes start moving it’s simply a transition of specific block hours between Skywest and Republic to absorb the flying Compass is doing. The ones that take false security in things things like: no other airline can take the airplanes all at once, or no regional has the pilots to staff 36 airplanes, sim time isn’t available, how can another regional create the infrastructure needed for west coast operations, etc. All this is keeping Endeavor from creating a 175 program. Delta says it would be too expensive and would take too long. Otherwise, I believe Endeavor would be getting them. Compass getting a contract with American complicated a sale of Compass to Delta. But now it looks like Delta has found another way for a nearly seamless transition. Time will tell
Rip asa
Today is the last day for ASA flying. Ask them if they were too big to be replaced. They flew for both American and Delta. The flying got divided up between two carriers and lots of guys started at the bottom of the seniority list. Oh hey, that actually sounds like a win for management and the shareholders. I’m not saying that it will happen, but don’t discount it.
Compass Updates 2: Revenge of the Sit
Quote: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. They don’t need to replicate bases. OO already has all the west bases they need to take your flying. YX has the staff to take your airplanes. The CP airplanes shift to YX, allowing them to take over the NYC/east coast 175 flying OO is doing, allowing OO to move their airframes west to take the current CP flying.


Delta doesn’t want only one regional with a monopoly (Comair) on any flying. I don’t think Skywest will be Delta’s only west coast regional. Either Republic or Endeavor will move west. Republic has the staffing and given what I just said I think the flying moves to YX and stays out west.


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Quote: Today is the last day for ASA flying. Ask them if they were too big to be replaced. They flew for both American and Delta. The flying got divided up between two carriers and lots of guys started at the bottom of the seniority list. Oh hey, that actually sounds like a win for management and the shareholders. I’m not saying that it will happen, but don’t discount it.
Supposedly UAL has been waiting for the American flying to end and the deal to close for the purchase of Expressjet before announcing more moves. Lots of activity behind the scenes at multiple places seems to indicate more is coming. Hopefully they get it all out over the next few weeks to end the speculation. Time will tell.
Quote: Delta doesn’t want only one regional with a monopoly (Comair) on any flying. I don’t think Skywest will be Delta’s only west coast regional. Either Republic or Endeavor will move west. Republic has the staffing and given what I just said I think the flying moves to YX and stays out west.


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Endeavor probably won't be moving west, the wholly owned is specifically for cancellation fodder in NYC, and to some extent, ATL.
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