Curious what everyone thinks will happen in the future for upgrade times? I know it’s dipped a little but I was told the “bubble” hasn’t burst where we didn’t hire for 5 years and after that it would go down to say 5-7 years.

IF it did, that would be for those hired right after the bubble. Then you have the 2000 pilots that have been hired in the last three years.
Someone hired today surely isn’t likely to see 5 years.

That is correct. For the last 7-ish years the upgrade time has been running right at 10 years +/- a few months.
That time will come down to about 7-8 years over the next 1-3 years but to think that a new hire today or anytime in 2019 will see a 5 year upgrade is highly unlikely and not being honest to the new hire.
But like with everything in the airlines, nothing is certain so ALWAYS live well beneath your means and save for a rainy day. Best of luck.

At a recent new FO event, "Mgt" seemed to be reluctant to speculate that upgrades would go earlier than 9 years. Very hesitant to speculate beyond something to the effect that it'll come down a bit.

Upgrade will continue to run between 9-10 years for the foreseeable future. The other X Factor to upgrade predicitions are the economy and future M&A events. The former seems fairly stable for the foreseeable future, the latter seems much more likely in the next 2-3 years. Once that happens, you’re at the mercy of how the SLI is determined between the two merging carriers. IOW, upgrade predictions are just that, predictions, and a constantly moving target.

Pretty much spot on except that I am slightly more optimistic that the 2013/early 2014 hires will sneak in right at 6 years. I’m basing that off of the upgrade numbers I’ve heard for next year, LAX opening and the high bypass rate. I think mid 2015 hires and later will be looking at a solid 8 years in the right seat.

As of today, there are more upgrades planned next year, 588, than newhires, 520. For whatever that's worth. Expect the newhire # to trend upwards 2nd half of the year as it's done the past few years.

I hadn’t heard that number (588) but that’s great news. That would have the early 2014 hires starting year six in 2020 only about 500 numbers junior to the most junior Captain.

Previously I had heard around 400 upgrades in 2019. Either way, a rising tide lifts all ships.


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I have 1800 people in front of me to upgrade wit 1000 bypassing. Figure 400 upgrades a yr and that's 2.5 yrs from now putting me at 5 yrs. Now if everyone dosent continue to bypass that drags it out another 2.5 yrs but considering 750 out of that 1000 bypassing are airtrain East coast FOs they may not take the upgrade to commute to the west coast and be seat locked for 6 bid periods. So 5-7 yr upgrades at my senority I predict

That upgrade number is great if it comes to pass. It will put the 2014 hires in a great spot, seniority wise. With the amount of hiring and lag in upgrades, it would make sense, honestly, to have more upgrades than new hires. Right now the lump in the snake is huge and it is really effecting FO open time market viability and the general trading of flying that generally happens. October is a slow month, but I have never seen a big base like HOU or MDW with TTGA being empty two weeks out. That means to me that everyone has gone from giveaway to hold mode because they are afraid that they will not be able to pick up flying by other means. Great for FO reserves that live in domicile and those that just fly their line, not great for everyone else.
The upgrade time is bound to come down. How far, I don’t know. I would guesstimate 7 years based on the 2011-2014 hiring slowdown and the juniority and lock associated with the etops bid group. AirTran guys are another question mark. As we work through the bottom of their former seniority list, how many will choose to upgrade and how many will bypass to stay put in Atlanta?
2018 was a great year for hiring. The training center is up and running and should be firing on all cylinders now. I am optimistic that 2019 is going to be a very interesting year for upgrades, movement, and the fallout of opening and quickly growing a new base. Hopefully by this time next year, we will have returned to a more typical manning picture and the rising tide that Zap mentioned will make everyone’s life a little bit better.