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Originally Posted by damnyourabbit
So what about upgrading AND flying a 737? Because in my position it's going to be another year as an FO anyway, I could start now on the seniority at SCA. This is the ONLY time I would even consider this given how little I have invested.
I think a lot has to do with how often reserve captains actually fly at SCA? Does anybody know? That seems important.
And Sliceback, thanks very much for you input.
APC has SC’s fleet and pilot corps size. What’s the updated fleet and pilot corps size? What are their short term hiring plans? What’s their attrition rate for guys leaving to other jobs? They’re currently at 14 pilots per aircraft. That’s probably a hiring bubble, and perhaps retention related, slightly high number. What’s the manning requirement if it drops to 12 pilots per aircraft?
Based on 450 pilots by EO 2018, 10% annual attrition, 6-7 aircraft increase per year, upgrading at 60% of the overall seniority list, I’d estimate your looking at a late 2021 upgrade. If manning drops to 12 per aircraft I’d estimate an upgrade in 2022.
Based on a 1-1.5 estimate to upgrade at SKW there’s a good possibility you’d be at approx 1000 hrs 121 PIC in 2021 when you’d upgrade at SC. Based on those assumptions switching to SC vs staying at SKW might be a 1.5-2 yr delay to 1000 hrs 121 PIC.
You’d have to estimate the confidence level of your SKW upgrade estimates. How stable is their 3-4 yr regional contract outlook with their major partners? If the upgrade estimate is 1.5-2 yrs I think I’d stay at SKW. If the upgrade estimates are based on attrition I’d give that a higher confidence level vs having to rely on SC’s planned expansion. If SC only gets half the aircraft they’re expecting your time to upgrade, with 10% attrition, your AC might be 2022 or later. By then you’d be in the 1500-2000 121 PIC range at SKW (assuming advancement stays as you estimated).
Since you’ve been at SKW a year I’m estimating your at a minimum of 2,000-2,500 TT. In three years does your projected SKW resume have you at 4,500-5,000 TT and 1,000 121 TPIC? 29 yrs old? At 30 you’d be 5,000-6,000 TT and 1,500 121 PIC? Plus any other PIC time bumping you to 2,000-2,500 PIC? That’s when the hiring bubble is at its peak which will last several years. (search TallFlyer’s posts).
Compare your future resumes, which includes future fleet and pilot corps size at both airlines, when choosing either job achieves specific TT/PIC/121 PIC gates (3K, 4K, 5K/1,000, 2,000/500, 1,000) and make steady decisions. As a young guy live smaller and ignore the money differences. Getting hired six months sooner will more than pay for any short term pay differences you’ll experience over the next 3-5 yrs. Choose the best resume path that focuses on advancing your major airline goal fastest.