Repost -
n/b FO (x=retirement percentage @ 9,100) (plug = bottom guy) -
as a 1/1/2019 and 47 yr old you'd retire around 9,100 seniority after starting at 15,000.
LGA x - 1% PHL x - 11%
at retirement (X), 9,100 would be #3 on the AB in NYC. That's 1% of the total NYC AB FO manning. In PHL 9,100 would be 11% on the AB
50% - 14,000 50% - 12,100
To reach the 50th percentile in a bid status, in this case NYC AB FO, your seniority has to be 14,000. In PHL it's 12,100. Using the DOH and yearly seniority advancement shows you'd start 2027 at 14,100 so you'd be at 50% NYC AB FO in Feb-Mar 2027, or approx. 13-14 months. In PHL you'd need to get to 12,100 to reach the 50th percentile. You'd start 2034 at 12,200, with only 400 retirements that year, so you could expect to reach the 50% in April 2034. That's 5 yrs and 3 months after your hypothetical hire date. That's a HUGE difference, 13-14 months vs 63 months, to reach the mid pack n/b FO percentage.
Keep in mind that's the percentage of overall manning, to include roughly 25% reserve, in a bid status. You'll also hear guys say "I'm about half way up the line holders". That's roughly 50% of the 75% of the manning that can hold a monthly schedule.
A general observation is that you can hold a line once you achieve 85% of a bid status (frequently lower than that), IMO decent trips start once you're approx. 65% of a bid status, and once you're at 40-50% of a bid status you can hold, IMO, reasonable flying. All rough estimates that vary due to the individual bidding habits of guys senior to you and the type of flying your fleet does. For example right now PHL 767 has no bad Europe trips. None. It's just best, better, and even better.
75% - 14,700 75% - 13,100
Plug - 15,000 Plug - 14,000
with a pilot corps size of 15,000, and the plug being at 15,000 in NYC, you can get it immediately. With PHL's current plug being 14,000 as a 2026 new hire you'd get to PHL in roughly 13-14 months. As a 2029 new hire, using the DOH and projected seniority advancement by year, it would take until August of 2030, and 20 months, to get to PHL.
This is why guys talk about relative seniority. It's where your seniority number fits into the overall seniority list, the seniority of guys in your base, or the seniority of guys in the seat (jobs) you're looking at. The data I'm providing shows the seniority number you need to get to 75% or 50% and your final percentage if you retire from the specific jobs listed (NYC and PHL n/b FO, w/b FO, n/b CA).
W/b FO - (777 JFK, 330 PHL) (PHL seniority should go more junior as 787's replace 767's) -
JFK x - 63% PHL x - 47%
75% - 10,200 75% - 10,200
Plug - 11,800 Plug - 11,400
n/b CA (320 comparison in both bases) -
LGA x - 62% PHL - x - 93%
75% - 10,600 75% - unable
Plug - 11,400 Plug - 10,100
Let me know if it still doesn't make sense. Every question you ask is a question others have so the discussion is helpful to many.