Since Sliceback did me a great favor and posted the AA End of 2018 base/equipment seniority he asked me to post some of the data I have gathered recently.

All numbers are based off those available on public websites as I don't work for any of the Legacy airlines. If someone has more accurate numbers of retirements, particularly for post 2040, please pass them along. As far as I can tell I'm missing retirement dates for 640 pilots for AA and 577 for DL. As such, they are currently all showing to retire post 2050 which we know not to be true.

Assumptions:
-Hired 1/1/2019
-Retire 12/31/2050
-No growth, percentage based off current number of pilots
-Every pilot stays until age 65 (no early retirements)
-Seniority number would be as of end of year

AA
2020 - 13780 - 91%
2025 - 9300 - 61.3%
2030 - 5720 - 37.8%
2035 - 3350 - 22.2%
2040 - 2200 - 14.5%
2045 - 1400 - 9.3%
2050 - 750 - 4.9%

As far as the numbers I have only 105 pilots will retire post 2050, thus missing dates for 640 pilots.

UAL
2020 - 11860 - 94%
2025 - 9400 - 74.7%
2030 - 6070 - 48.2%
2035 - 3530 - 28.1%
2040 - 1850 - 14.7%
2045 - 780 - 6.2%
2050 - 170 - 1.4%

DL
2020 - 13000 - 92.8%
2025 - 9100 - 65%
2030 - 6400 - 45.6%
2035 - 4400 - 31.3%
2040 - 3160 - 22.6%
2045 - 1800 - 12.9%
2050 - 790 - 5.6%

Again, I only show 187 pilots retiring post 2050 so dates for 577 pilots are missing.


Obviously, not everyone will stay to 65 so theses numbers can/will be accelerated.

This is fantastic. Lots of valuable data to consider.
Any additional data available for Southwest, FedEx/UPS, JetBlue, etc.?

I am a SWA summer 2017 hire, so the numbers are a little skewed. For me with only age 65 retirements it’s roughly:

2020: 87%
2025: 77%
2030: 57%
2035: 37%
2040: 17%
2045: 5%

I took a screen shot of my expected seniority in February, I am already 102 numbers more senior than the ALPA prediction just 10 months ago. Lots of factors will greatly accelerate the #s shown above.

I think you pretty darn close.

I started 1 year earlier than the date you gave.

AA
2020 - 13780 - 91% my AA seniority calculator shows 83%
2025 - 9300 - 61.3% my AA calculator shows 54%
2030 - 5720 - 37.8% my AA calculator shows 30%
2035 - 3350 - 22.2% my AA calculator shows 16%
2040 - 2200 - 14.5% I am on the beach
2045 - 1400 - 9.3% I am in the nursing home
2050 - 750 - 4.9% I am probably in the ground

What airline?

dal
................

Sorry, with a name like Han Solo, I couldn’t resist:

Your FO was swinging gear for almost 40 years. Then you died and replaced yourself with a street hire (Rey).

Progression questions?

But how did I do? Pilot mentality in a galaxy far far away.

Commander in the left. Pilot in the right. Couldn’t imagine chewy on the radios. Ggggrrraaaaa... um say again.
Over and over.