Anyone have an idea of how many qualified applicants the big three have on file. I’ve heard one to five thousand. Any recruiters are those in the know care to take a SWAG? By qualified I assume 1000 TPIC and a 4 year degree.

Probably about 7000.

But its the same 7000.

Last year there were 4,604 pilots hired by the majors/freight dogs/LCCs combined. So that is a bit of reference, about a year and a half supply. YMMV

It is going to increase over the next few years, and be sustained.

As history, in 2013, before hiring ramped up, hiring was 1,084. Hence, the sucking sound you hear.

There are about 20,000 regional pilots. About 1,000 get hired each year from the military. You can do the math.

How many are the regionals hiring each year? The civilian pipeline is humming along pretty well right now.

Add in returning pilots who left in the Great Recession, the influx of second career noobies who suddenly found flying passion and there’s still a crap shoot aspect to the career. There’s never been a better time, it can be a great life, but don’t bank on being a wide body captain at a legacy.

GF

There will never be a shortage at DL, UAL, AMR, SWA, FedEx, UPS since they all have almost zero turnover and only retirements ~ around 2200 per year. And hiring give or take around 3500 per year combined. So do the math.
7 years at a regional and the jump is as real as it gets with networking because that is what it takes

I would say around 11000 same applicants trying to break the code with the numbers you posted however Remember, every year the list is constant at 11000 since more qualified pilots enter this list from everywhere


That’s from a legacy recruiter very close friend of mine

So, 1 in 5 positions to applicants each year. 1 in 3 applicants gets hired. Is growth that high or is there some expected washout? I can't imagine flying for a regional and washing out of training at the majors. You're already rocking turbine time.

Those numbers don't sound intimidating. I don't see any reason why the moment you hit the minimums you wouldn't put your application into all the majors and keep working them every year until you made it.

first, what if you’re not one of those hired? I’ve known plenty in that boat. What if a recession slows hiring? Can delay hiring for years. What if High Speed Rail really does take-off? Unlikely at this time, but could really put a crimp on lots of short haul flying. The Shutyle went from A300/B727 to ERJ/CRJ with Amtrak’s Acela. What if you lose your medical before covered by LTD? A friend recently died of cancer at 57, no LTD in corporate flight department. Ouch!

The Sixties was the last time we had hiring like today, the Seventies were a lost decade, no growth despite the WW II retirements. The Eighties had a big boom due to growth, continued thru the Nineties even with a recession. Then another lost 13 years.

No predictions, but aviation careers aren’t guaranteed and far riskier than, say, accounting.

GF

What if a simplified tax code gets passed? You know how many accountants do work OTHER than tax prep and tax advice and tax structuring and tax sheltering?

Thinking other industries are free from the ebb and pull of larger economic forces and aviation is impacted to a different degree is a sheltered point of view. Even in the airlines, you could be pumping gas or working the check-in desk or working for TSA giving handjobs and be in the same boat as pilots in an economic downturn.

In the end would you rather be running the rat race in a cubicle making 60-80k at best (without owning your own business or being an exception to the rule) or would you rather get paid 200k+ to do something that you love and travel more than most Americans could even imagine?

Let the bad times come. Regardless of where you sit you'll need to be flexible. A few lucky ones will fly over the dark clouds and not be impacted at all. These are all things you can't control. Manage the controllables.

I am at a legacy and I can tell you the failure of new hires are almost none.. one here and there you hear failed training.
Just posting what a recruiter friend told me about the numbers month ago