Quote:
Originally Posted by TransWorld
Same as a couple of years ago, here is what my crystal ball says. In the next 3 - 8 years (was 5 - 10 years when I made it):
1. American will consolidate their 3 wholly owned to 1.
Doubt it. Without whipsaw the entire camel will want to come into the tent, thinking it's part of the family. Non-WO competition may not provide enough whipsaw benefit to keep a single WO in line.
They already tried that a while back...
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomHawk
2. American, Delta, and United each will have no more than 3 regionals to do their flying. This includes any wholly owned.
Makes sense, x3 is enough for whipsaw but easier to manage.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomHawk
3. Alaska will revert to just Horizon doing their regional flying.
Doubt it. I think they'd revert to just OO doing their flying first...
QX is one camel which already thinks it should live in the tent, they won't want to encourage that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomHawk
4. Skywest will be a survivor. Hard to tell who else will survive.
Last few years pretty much confirm that. They'll thrive at least until the next major industry or economic catastrophe. Economy of scale counts for a lot, and they have a lot of that. Plus good managers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomHawk
5. A220s (flown by the majors) will take over some of the 76 seat capacity. The 76 seaters will take over some of the 50 seat capacity. A significant portion of the 50 seat planes will be parked.
I think they'll fly them until they wear out simply because they are relatively cheap (outsourced labor plus most are paid for at this point), scope will not allow them to be replaced with anything bigger and scope is NOT getting relaxed
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomHawk
6. The number of regional carriers will reduce to 1/4 of the number when I made the prediction. Several have already going out of business or been bought out. This will continue.
I'd guess 1/2 to 1/3. Still need whipsaw.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomHawk
7. The number of pilots flying for regionals will be 1/2 of what they were. 20,000 pilots will go to 10,000 pilots. A lot of these slots will be added to the number of pilots flying for the majors. Some slots will go away (fewer 76 seat flights replacing 50 seat flights) driven by the pilot shortage.
Fortunately most will get squeezed up, or worst case sideways, as opposed to out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomHawk
8. Because of the pilot shortage, at the peak of retirements the majors will be hiring 4,000 pilots per year from the 20,000 pilot pool at the regionals. This is in addition to the hiring of military and other pilots (135, etc.).
Still not sure what their plan is. Maybe they're just hoping for a recession and are now alarmed that it's waaaay past A14 on that. It may involve further industry consolidation... eliminating some overlap would help with pilot shortage. A little, loads are pretty high these days.
12-20-2022
