I’ve said this already in the past, but we are now beginning to witness the consolidation of regional partners among our codeshares. Like every other big change in this industry, DL will lead the charge and AA/UA will eventually follow suit. The outcome will be dedicated “wholly-owned” carriers to one specific codeshare, along with YX and OO as wildcards to tie up any loose ends. If you’re just beginning to enter this industry choose your stepping-stone wisely!

 

Same as a couple of years ago, here is what my crystal ball says. In the next 3 - 8 years (was 5 - 10 years when I made it):

1. American will consolidate their 3 wholly owned to 1.

2. American, Delta, and United each will have no more than 3 regionals to do their flying. This includes any wholly owned.

3. Alaska will revert to just Horizon doing their regional flying.

4. Skywest will be a survivor. Hard to tell who else will survive.

5. A220s (flown by the majors) will take over some of the 76 seat capacity. The 76 seaters will take over some of the 50 seat capacity. A significant portion of the 50 seat planes will be parked.

6. The number of regional carriers will reduce to 1/4 of the number when I made the prediction. Several have already going out of business or been bought out. This will continue.

7. The number of pilots flying for regionals will be 1/2 of what they were. 20,000 pilots will go to 10,000 pilots. A lot of these slots will be added to the number of pilots flying for the majors. Some slots will go away (fewer 76 seat flights replacing 50 seat flights) driven by the pilot shortage.

8. Because of the pilot shortage, at the peak of retirements the majors will be hiring 4,000 pilots per year from the 20,000 pilot pool at the regionals. This is in addition to the hiring of military and other pilots (135, etc.).

At that point my crystal ball went dark.

 

Because Horizon has such a great track record.

 

In reality TSH is one of the last holdouts in the regional consolidation that has been happening since the mergers. I’ll probably miss a few, but Mesa went bankrupt and streamlined. Comair shut down in 2012. Lynx is gone. Pinnacle/mesaba/colgan bankrupt to became 9e and eventually would have furloughed if people hadn’t abandoned ship like they did. Republic went bankrupt shed 50seaters and consolidated shuttle America and chautauqua. ASA and expressjet finally merged. Great Lakes is gone.
American eagle is probably the last hold out except the sale of expressjet makes the merger of expressjet and commutair a possibility now.
Tip of the hat to airwisc through all of that.

 

Exactly. AS will have OO for Atleast another 12 years... and beyond based on there performance for them...

 

The Appleton Illuminati work in mysterious ways.

 

What would you recommend is a wise choice to make if starting the regionals ?

 

Anything that is not run by Jonathan Ornstein or Hulas Kanodia.

 

That depends entirely on your risk tolerance and goals. You want safe and slow? Skywest/Republic/AA wholly owneds/Endeavor are likely either too big or too secure to fail. Some upgrade quicker than others.

You want quick upgrades to get out of the regionals or to make a lot of money and build time quickly? Expressjet, Whiskey, Mesa, Commutair.

There's no one right or wrong answer, it all depends on your personal situations.

 

Based on stability alone? Any of the ones I just listed. YX, OO or any of the WO’s including ExpressJet since I would consider them off the chopping block for some time.