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Consolidation has begun

Old 08-06-2019, 03:56 PM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon View Post
That depends entirely on your risk tolerance and goals. You want safe and slow? Skywest/Republic/AA wholly owneds/Endeavor are likely either too big or too secure to fail. Some upgrade quicker than others.

You want quick upgrades to get out of the regionals or to make a lot of money and build time quickly? Expressjet, Whiskey, Mesa, Commutair.

There's no one right or wrong answer, it all depends on your personal situations.
Nobody is making "a lot of money" at any of those companies you listed. "Oh but the 300% at Mesa!" Yeah, the 300% that is not sustainable and can be taken away at any second.
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Old 08-06-2019, 04:12 PM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by hawk21 View Post
Because Horizon has such a great track record.
Track record has nothing to do with it. Alaska will always need 1 additional regional to compete with Horizon for flying otherwise we would gain too much leverage in future contract negotiations. That is Skywest's primary function and role in serving Alaska.

When our management isnt burning us to the ground with their ineptitude and arrogance, our performance is probably best in the industry (whatever that's worth).
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Old 08-06-2019, 04:26 PM
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Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon View Post
That depends entirely on your risk tolerance and goals. You want safe and slow? Skywest/Republic/AA wholly owneds/Endeavor are likely either too big or too secure to fail. Some upgrade quicker than others.

You want quick upgrades to get out of the regionals or to make a lot of money and build time quickly? Expressjet, Whiskey, Mesa, Commutair.

There's no one right or wrong answer, it all depends on your personal situations.
Pretty sure SkyWest just had Captain spots go unfilled... about 10 in MSP and 2 in SLC according to the DVR report for what there Target was... with 18 CRJ’s coming and now this West Coast flying. Upgrades will drop this fall.
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Old 08-06-2019, 05:06 PM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by TransWorld View Post
Same as a couple of years ago, here is what my crystal ball says. In the next 3 - 8 years (was 5 - 10 years when I made it):

1. American will consolidate their 3 wholly owned to 1.
Doubt it. Without whipsaw the entire camel will want to come into the tent, thinking it's part of the family. Non-WO competition may not provide enough whipsaw benefit to keep a single WO in line.

They already tried that a while back...

Originally Posted by PhantomHawk View Post
2. American, Delta, and United each will have no more than 3 regionals to do their flying. This includes any wholly owned.
Makes sense, x3 is enough for whipsaw but easier to manage.

Originally Posted by PhantomHawk View Post
3. Alaska will revert to just Horizon doing their regional flying.
Doubt it. I think they'd revert to just OO doing their flying first...

QX is one camel which already thinks it should live in the tent, they won't want to encourage that.

Originally Posted by PhantomHawk View Post
4. Skywest will be a survivor. Hard to tell who else will survive.
Last few years pretty much confirm that. They'll thrive at least until the next major industry or economic catastrophe. Economy of scale counts for a lot, and they have a lot of that. Plus good managers.


Originally Posted by PhantomHawk View Post
5. A220s (flown by the majors) will take over some of the 76 seat capacity. The 76 seaters will take over some of the 50 seat capacity. A significant portion of the 50 seat planes will be parked.
I think they'll fly them until they wear out simply because they are relatively cheap (outsourced labor plus most are paid for at this point), scope will not allow them to be replaced with anything bigger and scope is NOT getting relaxed

Originally Posted by PhantomHawk View Post
6. The number of regional carriers will reduce to 1/4 of the number when I made the prediction. Several have already going out of business or been bought out. This will continue.
I'd guess 1/2 to 1/3. Still need whipsaw.

Originally Posted by PhantomHawk View Post
7. The number of pilots flying for regionals will be 1/2 of what they were. 20,000 pilots will go to 10,000 pilots. A lot of these slots will be added to the number of pilots flying for the majors. Some slots will go away (fewer 76 seat flights replacing 50 seat flights) driven by the pilot shortage.
Fortunately most will get squeezed up, or worst case sideways, as opposed to out.

Originally Posted by PhantomHawk View Post
8. Because of the pilot shortage, at the peak of retirements the majors will be hiring 4,000 pilots per year from the 20,000 pilot pool at the regionals. This is in addition to the hiring of military and other pilots (135, etc.).
Still not sure what their plan is. Maybe they're just hoping for a recession and are now alarmed that it's waaaay past A14 on that. It may involve further industry consolidation... eliminating some overlap would help with pilot shortage. A little, loads are pretty high these days.
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Old 08-06-2019, 05:57 PM
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Originally Posted by stabapch View Post
I’ve said this already in the past, but we are now beginning to witness the consolidation of regional partners among our codeshares. Like every other big change in this industry, DL will lead the charge and AA/UA will eventually follow suit. The outcome will be dedicated “wholly-owned” carriers to one specific codeshare, along with YX and OO as wildcards to tie up any loose ends. If you’re just beginning to enter this industry choose your stepping-stone wisely!
Your 6 months on the line has made you into some type of oracle!

Consolidation has been in process for some time now of which seems to be a trend of consolidating away from TSH companies.
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Old 08-06-2019, 05:58 PM
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Originally Posted by stabapch View Post
I’ve said this already in the past, but we are now beginning to witness the consolidation of regional partners among our codeshares. Like every other big change in this industry, DL will lead the charge and AA/UA will eventually follow suit. The outcome will be dedicated “wholly-owned” carriers to one specific codeshare, along with YX and OO as wildcards to tie up any loose ends. If you’re just beginning to enter this industry choose your stepping-stone wisely!
I called this over two years ago. All regionals are not the same.
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Old 08-06-2019, 06:20 PM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by Meow1215 View Post
Your 6 months on the line has made you into some type of oracle!

Consolidation has been in process for some time now of which seems to be a trend of consolidating away from TSH companies.
Thanks, a new CA as well.

Consolidation within regionals has been going on forever yes, not consolidating carriers under codeshares.
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Old 08-06-2019, 06:59 PM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by hawk21 View Post
Nobody is making "a lot of money" at any of those companies you listed. "Oh but the 300% at Mesa!" Yeah, the 300% that is not sustainable and can be taken away at any second.
I made roughly 92k my first full year at somewhere other than Mesa.
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Old 08-06-2019, 07:01 PM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
...

I think they'll fly them until they wear out simply because they are relatively cheap (outsourced labor plus most are paid for at this point), scope will not allow them to be replaced with anything bigger and scope is NOT getting relaxed

...
Hold up. Most of your post was pretty solid, but are you mad that there shouldn’t be scope concessions? Tell me I’m misreading the raging emoji.
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Old 08-06-2019, 07:02 PM
  #20  
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Originally Posted by stabapch View Post
Thanks, a new CA as well.
Check out the four stripes on you!
Probably goes great with the hat.
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