I am 36, married: kids age 3 and 7. I am at r-atp mins with a class date starting in November with a regional. I am trying to make sure I am making the right decision

I am preparing to leave a firefighter career where I am pretty much topped out making 110k annually with about 30-40k in overtime depending on how much I want to work. I have about 6 months of vacation and another 6 months of sick time saved up so I get two paychecks for a while. If I stick around for 30 years I get a pension equal to 75% of my 3 highest base salary years (no OT). I have 10 years credit now so I would get 25% of my 3 highest years salary for a pension starting at age 60.

I know I am going to take a pretty big hit initially, but the lifetime earnings as an airline pilot are much higher.

Am I close on these estimates for the next possible 10 years? Or maybe my head is in the sky, or I am guessing low. They are just estimates/guesses. I know it could be better or worse. My longterm goal is a legacy, but I would probably be just fine if I could make it to the left seat at a LCC

2022- 40k
2023- 45k
2024- 50k
2025- 100k (upgrade)
2026- 115k
2027- 125k. (hired at lcc or legacy hopefully)
2028- 145k.
2029- 150k
2030- 150k
2031- 200k (upgrade)
2032- 225k

Your estimates are low for regional FO, high for regional CA, very high for first year LCC and realistic after that.

Ok- Thanks for the help. I will adjust my spreadsheet numbers a bit and go from there.

The first year FO at pay at all the LCCs is really low and then almost doubles in year two. I forgot to account for that

And you will be on training pay for a few months, which is often peanuts.

You should pretty easily make 60k as a regional FO and you should plan to work as much as possible to compress your timeline by some years. You do not want to wait 4 years to upgrade and 5-6 years to move on. After 2 years you should be planning to move on to LCCs or even legacies.
Breaking 100k as a junior regional CA is not easy.

Got it. I will definitely try to move things along as fast as I can. The longer scenario of getting of not upgrading and applying for the next step in the career path for several years is worst case

Yeah, first year major call it 90k to be safe (may get paid less in new-hire training than online guarantee).

I'd probably move major upgrade out a bit further, the retirement wave will be winding down then, and you may not actully *want* to take the first upgrade and commute to NYC to sit early am reserve on Christmas morning.

Also agree that you shouldn't *have* to wait four years to upgrade at a regional. Unless you pick the wrong regional.

got it- so maybe more like this

2022- 50k
2023- 60k
2024- 90k (upgrade)
2025- 100k
2026- 70k (LCC- would be more at legacy)
2026- 120k
2027- 130k
2028- 150k
2029- 200k (upgrade)
2030- 210k
2031- 225k
2032- 230k

Unless we start negotiating automatic cost of living increases into our contracts, all that figuring coukd be meaningless.

inflation is already eating into our pay scales which with multi year contracts mean we can get seriously behind. The US has never experienced Weimar Republic levels of inflation, but even Carter ea levels coukd devastate a five year contract. And with Yellen pushing for a removal of the debt ceiling it could happen. It’s happening in Venezuela right now:

US inflation will not reach extreme levels unless we...

1) Are disconnected from the global economy
2) Have no checks and balances in spending

The current regime is already showing cracks in their spending ambitions, as moderates worry about midterms. It will also help once they stop paying people to sit at home because they're "scared" of covid.

I am screwed either way then. The fire department I work for already negotiated COLAs tied to the current inflation rate (with a max of 3.5% per year- idiot move) for the next 3 years