https://recruiting2.ultipro.com/FRO1...tUai0o8Isi-8DA

My own research, and the excellent recent posts by BoilerWings, StayonTarget, Aero1900, Dracir1 and others, make me conclude that:

RDU and CVG is my guess.

I believe they will be "grown into a base" as history tells us "20 destinations served" seems to be the happy spot for Barry to open a base. Now, admittedly, that was the "pre-Allegiant model" or the "2021 Frontier", so maybe less destinations served is now acceptable. History also tells us that Barry likes to open bases with a pre-existing stream of Big-3 customers.

Base #3? Anyone's guess.

The Spirit/JetBlue merger, if it fails, will result in Barry making another run at Spirit (in my opinion), so Base #3 maybe be pending that.

To pull this off "by next summer" (9 months away) means he has to open one base every 90 days. Questions remain on how he will staff them. People are leaving at ??? 30 a month. Classes are what? Even at 90 a month (they aren't), you are losing 1/3 of your body count. (Again, they are not 90 a month). Staffing needs INCREASE as additional metal arrives. See body count comment.

You can only slice up a 12 inch pizza into so many skinny slices.

At some point, there is no pizza to hand out anymore. What base is the next base to see displacements? etc

I have noticed there are out and back redeyes to cities not previously served on a red eye turn. Is that how we will be keeping aircraft utilization up at 'day trip only' bases?

Leave at 9PM come back at 4AM for 5 hours of pay?

Attrition is obviously not on their mind. They've got some other master plan that does right by their bank accounts and continues turn over as it is. They seem petty happy with morale as it is.

I mostly agree with the two above posts.

CVG and RDU do seem like logical next bases. LGA will be entirely dependent on the merger so that's an unknown for now.

I can see the company wanting to follow the Allegiant model to an extent, the question is how much? I wonder how many domiciles Allegiant has and how many destinations they serve? Also, I wonder how thin their reserve coverage is in small bases? If you rely on the premium folder maybe you can get away with very little reserve coverage?

In my mind, the only reason not to have 15 domiciles is having to carry 15 sets of reserves. But if almost all the trips are day turns, getting them covered is much easier. Calling out for a day turn vs a 3 or 4 day trip that criss-crosses the whole country is much easier for the company to cover. Or you just offer up a premium trip to cover the sick call one day and you don't need to use any reserves vs the 3 or 4 day sick call that frequently uses 2 reserves to cover.

It's pretty easy to see how recovering from a disruption is much easier. I just didn't think they ever cared about that lol.

All of this discussion makes me wonder why the big airlines don't do more domiciles? We have domiciles that are dwarfed by the number of legacies overnighting and yet its not a base for them.

I remember in a ground school or recurrent, Brad saying "costs at the airport" such as gate access, jet bridges, etc are a factor for bases. So I don't see LGA. I think Islip is our LGA anyway (how many Islip pax are living inside Islip city limits?).


Also, bases tend to carry with them (again, "Frontier 2021") both pilots and FAs. FA's due to the demographic of the work force, tend to see increased medical leave, etc stuff, due to pregnancies etc. This is why some Big-3 are closing California FA bases. Barry is likely looking at the various "best states to do business in" lists also:

https://chiefexecutive.net/best-worst-states-business/

https://www.beckersasc.com/leadershi...-business.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/amer...-rankings.html

definatly a NO vote if this stays!

I sure hope min CALENDAR DAY. is in the next one. or it will be a no vote from me.

Everyone wants their own stuff in contracts... but it would be pretty nice to see SOMETHING for commuters, especially after this all happens with bases and resizing.

Even if it is just giving 5 hotels a month. I think ideally, it would be if someone identifies as a commuter, then the company provides them hotels for up to 8-10 nights a month in their domicile between trips or reimburse for up to $X of hotels, say 1,200 a month.

As someone who doesn't commute myself, I hate to see resources used on commuting stuff, but I feel like it is needed if this is the route they want to go.

C’mon BWI!

Sore spot too. I talked to plenty of people and read up before coming here, but my due diligence wasn’t thorough enough. Everyone colloquially throws around 5/hr day minimum and I was like sweet, that’s a lot more than my regional offered. But every calendar day was truly a minimum daily guarantee. None of this average duty period stuff. Paid a full daily for layover days too, none of these 10 hour 3 days.

I doubt that will ever change, or any of our work rules. I fully expect protracted negotiations and finally settling on zero changes plus a pay raise, with overwhelming yes votes. This plus always feeling on edge about growth and if any of our bases will be here in a couple years was enough to make new apps and apply everywhere. I was a little nervous about moving on but all this sudden upheaval tells me it’s the right choice.

SJU

Filler