I see this realignment bid as the "Christmas" bid. You walk out Christmas morning (junior pilot), peeking at presents under the tree all is well and you get your A300 or 757 SDF bid, no longer having to commute two legs a full day prior.... etc. Then your Dad (displacement bid) walks out and sees you peaking at the presents before its time to open them, takes them away from you and sends you all the way back to Anchorage!

Boy, If that ain't the truth! I went from 9 below me in sdf on the MD to 26 but that won't last. I guess it could be worse and I'm lucky to be here!

Happy bidding!

True, true...

It's awfully thin now on the panel however I think company is inbound...

Misery loves company...

Any of the tea leaf / monkey bone masters out there done the Ziping Bazi to see how this will all shake out? Initial damage report looks like 68 relatively senior FO/FE's took Captain or senior FO spots from the original or recurring vacancies.

Original displacements remaining are 52 CA's and 20 FO's for 09-201. Everyone in the bottom 30-40 in any seat, BRACE FOR IMPACT.

Somebody correct my math, but does this compute to the bottom 72 system seniority FO's from this list (mostly ANC 744 and MD11 after the Great Flush) heading to the -8 FE?

Trying to interpret the Kentuckianderthal Cave paintings...

captch11

I'm new (very new) to this, but I see the bottom 43 ANC 744/M1F FOs going to the FE panel, except that I see 3 above them bidding FE, making it the bottom 40.

Now, of course, there will be some that will decide they really don't want to deal with the commute after all, so that will drop a few spots below 40. Either way, my guess is I'll be plumbing. I sit 30 from the bottom right now.

The other possible unknown is if the company can change their minds and say they're really going to bypass more than the 5 guys they claim so far. I don't know if that's contractual or not...

Paging Dr. Roberto...

Update:
Someone called manpower and had them run a snapshot--today's ref seniority list #2836 and below going to FE if no changes.

Good point (and I'm right behind you on the way to plumbers' school). It totally depends on the company's math -- would they rather pay the costs of 3 or 4 training events per displaced position (depending on whether there's a panel for the newly trained CPTs/FOs to bid back to when they turn 65 in 2 yrs or less) plus the costs of moves back and forth, etc or just pay to bypass? Problem is: each of these 'pots of money' are managed by different people and it's doubtful they're talking to each other.

Good catch on the 3 FE bids, 'Dog. One must have changed with the snapshot. That puts it at the bottom 70 @ 2836/2906 instead of my 72 @ 2834 guess. I knew my Kentuckianederthalogy had to be off by a couple somewhere. That'll be 16 off the MD and 34 off the -400?

BRACE, BRACE, BRACE.

Food for thought for carnage mitigation... retirements in '09 =4, '10 =25, '11-'13 = 149. Deliveries '09 = 2, '10 = 6, '11/'12 = 22

One more moveback from the -8's whenever they go to the boneyard and in a mere 6 or 7 years we'll be back to where we were before the Bush Depression / Age 65. Thanks oops-I-crapped-my-pants*. (*Obscure comedic reference for you SNL fans from the 90's)

"One great deal after another" - Archie Bunker, circa Fall 2008

Captch11

The results of the displacement will have a bigger audience than the American Idol final

A bit of hope in a storm of pessimism is that there will be several who simply will not commute to ANC with the hope that things actually will improve in the near/mid term. Among the beauties of our no-differential pay is that guys who rarely even go west of the Mississippi won't chase the paycheck all the way to ANC as there are no Mc Donalds in Almaty...yet.

Haha, it's funny because it's true! (the McDonald's part anyway)

By my count, 67 FE's upgraded on this bid (28 Favre's and 39 younger-uns).

I think that means (since there was no net increase in front seats in the Realignment Vacancy Bid) that the Displacement Bid will send a total of 67 FO's and FO awardees to FE.

From the reference seniority list, I count 46 DC8 CPT, 21 DC8 FO, and 7 ONT CPT remaining to be displaced. There must be a few vacancies that were not filled, because the total to be displaced does not equal the 67 total upgrades from FE to FO, above. The unfilled vacancy assumption seems reasonable as the system-wide junior pilot received an FO award.

On another note, Manpower Planning estimated that all this would fill up the school house through September, and that there would probably be another bid out before then to keep the school house in business.

As for airplanes, was told by someone who should know that the delivery schedule for the 767's looks like this through next summer: One each 767 in July, October, January, March, April, June, July. If that holds, there should be some significant vacancies in 757 domiciles, though I've heard they won't need any more for the first two or three deliveries. Hopefully, there will also be a couple more 747's early next year.

And of course, there is the DC8. I don't think anyone knows how long that will last. There is a lot of time before the next bid for that to be mulled over. I think the main thing to watch for between now and then is transfers to ROW (for storage) and whether or not they resume doing annual checks in SAT. By my count, we have 27 DC8 tails in the "working" inventory, counting four that are at GSO for "repair mapping."