Quote:
Originally Posted by TiredSoul
What's the 'Summer of 2015' ?
During the Summer of 2015 open time spiked because the hiring boom started to ramp up and Atlas was caught flat footed. They started to push the training center to max capacity for new hires and upgrades but it was too late and open time was easily available for the rest of the year. 2016 came and Atlas out paced attrition by something like 200 pilots and got ahead of the problem so that there weren't as many holes in the schedule during Summer and Fall.
In 2017 we've telegraphed that we'll have an extra 747 or two and 10 767s that must be staffed in addition to what we already have and we're probably going to be losing 40-50 pilots a month for the next 4 or 5 months. We have a TON of upgrades coming on the 767 and the 747 also has them next month and in May. That level of attrition exceeds max capacity for our training center. That means that we won't be able to staff what we've promised and open time will be the first indication. Our list has shrunk for 3 straight months now and will almost certainly shrink again.
Despite March being a traditionally slow month we've had a good amount of open time. Nothing crazy but way more than there traditionally is and we're not to vacation season yet. That starts in June and I'm betting that if our list continues to shrink, airplanes keep showing up on property, and the capacity of the training center is what management claims it is that we'll see a crazy amount of open time in the 2nd half of 2017. Keep in mind that all of this is BEFORE we've started adding jets. We add 1 a month for the rest of the year on the 767 which will require training on the 747 side as well to replace the army of captains they need which come from the 747. Around 1/3rd of the current 767 Captains on our list are in the training pipeline. A TON of the others have class dates at other airlines.
The difference between 2015 and 2017 is that now instead of an irritated pilot group they have a furious pilot group who's leaving the company for any job instead of just *****ing in the cockpit. The 4rth quarter at Atlas will be epic this year.