So when is the move gonna happen at everybodies airline? What have you heard around the training department cooler while you were in recurrent? Lets answer what everybody wants to really know..."How much longer do I have to eat at the kids table?"

With all of the consolidation going on within the airline industry it will be interesting to see when/if big hiring numbers solidify in the near future....

For DAL, hiring pretty much becomes unavoidable in 2012, possibly earlier in small numbers.

I would guess that at UCal you'll have to wait for the dust to settle. There are still pilots on the street from United.

American's demographics probably make it the place for the fastest upgrades. I'd expect them to start hiring in 2012 also, although they do have about an 800 pilot flow up requirement.

Fedex has a BIG 777 order, but their pilot group at this point is fairly young...slower upgrade time, but a solid company.

How bout US Airways? If one were to get hired today, when could they expect to upgrade?

Do they have any more interviews planned for those who haven't gotten called yet?

If everything remains as is.... age 65 retirements will begin 4th qtr of next year... most companies will have to be proactive and begin hiring/recalling 4-6 months ahead of that to keep things the same.

To me the interesting thing will be to see how many of those on furlough at UAL and AA actually come back when its all said and done.

The retirements will have to exceed the legacy airlines' rates of shrinkage, consolidation and outsourcing of their work. Nobody trumpets these figures, but at most majors the seniority lists are 40% off their peak numbers. Graph it out and you'll see retirements are not replaced on a 1 to 1 basis.

With fuel price volatility (and government making it worse by adding carbon tax schemes) I'd hope for, but not count on, a hiring wave.

Exactly. The MD80 could be the next 727. Retired in mass numbers only to be replaced by RJs.

I remember the argument 10 years ago, "the CRJ200 gets the same gas mileage per seat mile as the 727."

All depends on scope. If you guys can get 50 seats at UCAL, hiring will have to go nuts. Also put a limit on how much outsourcing can be done and this will not be as big of a problem. Also with the new duty rules Outsourcing is not going to be as "cheap" as it used to be. 2001-2012 will be known as the RJ era in this industry. I think everyone has seen what happens when you let the genie out of the bottle. The next 10 years are going to be spent reigning it back in.

Bar,

Not responding to your quote in disagreement, only looking for more detailed information. I don't know the percentage, so am asking you, what amount of the "40% off their peak numbers" are due to moving from a three crewmember airplane (i.e. L-1011, 727) to a more fuel efficient two pilot cockpit?

Thanks for the reply.

The 727/MD-80/CRJ200 is an apples to oranges comparison. Everything from three pilot to two pilot cockpits, CASM/RASM, and the flight schedule "convenience" that the RJ's offer the smaller communities (i.e. BIS/MOT) compared to what the airlines could offer with a 727/MD80.

Fly safe,

GJ

Ya know you don't have to pick a major based on chasing a quick upgrade like the regionals. A major actually pays an FO a decent amount of money to live on. They don't just pay in food stamps and ramen noodles.