You might very well be right eagle, I guess we will see.

AA buys B6 then U buys AA

Agree 100% with the Jetblue deal.

Delta wants JB badly but the DOT would not approve due to the NYC monopoly DL would have. AA is currently a weak #3 in NY today - we would become a strong #3 in NYC with a JB deal, exactly where we want to be (we would still be behind DL and UA.)

However, I do believe that the USAir deal will happen, along with the JB deal - I have always maintained AA will do some kind of a 3-way deal at the same time.

deleted.............

What makes you think that DAL wants JB? Not necessarily saying we don't, but you seem fairly certain of that as being pressing. There are other holes in our network that are way more important than that those JB would fill.

DL wants to OWN New York, and eliminate the low-fare competition, while plugging the hole in the Caribbean that's missing from the DL route map. Getting JB would make DL the undisputed king of NY, leaping WAY past UAL.

This of course is just my opinion, and I would not be surprised to see DL put up a big fight in blocking AA from getting JB.

CAL/UAL by far dominate the NYC region. They control just over 70% of the passenger traffic through EWR. When you take the total traffic numbers for the entire NYC region (EWR/LGA/JFK/SWF) the totals look like this:

(2011 data)
CAL/UAL 25.8%
DL 19.2%
AA 13.5%
JB 12.9%
US 5.7%

Next year DL will gain a few points from the LGA slot swap, putting them around 22% of total NYC traffic. You can add the numbers and see what would happen if DL/JB or AA/JB went through.

http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traffic/ATR2011.pdf (page 47)

Also some numbers for JFK/LGA passenger traffic

JFK
JB 23.9%
DL 23.9%
AA 17.2%

LGA
DL 29.6%
AA 20.8%
US 17.6%
JB 3.5%

Viewing NYC as a whole then DL+B6 would be 32% of total traffic, effectively eliminating AA+US to less than half the presence that the other major alliances have in the most important market in the USA. It would even put UAL drastically behind. I'm not saying AA+US wont be effective for capturing traffic in the NYC area, but they are putting all their eggs into the PHL basket. NYC will be destroyed for AA+US if/when DL+B6 happens.

My personal opinion is that there need to be three major competitiors (AA, UA, DL) in NYC with roughly equal shares of the market. AA cant afford to let DL take B6 away (nor do I think the DOT would allow that).

Let's not forget U has a large presence at LGA. The handshake deal between Horton and Parker post bankruptcy is likely to draw little response from others, but an overt pass at Jet Blue by AA will draw several others into a bidding war that will drive the price way up. JB may still be very much a desirable merger partner, but that may have to wait.

Can AA handle two mergers (a three-way) at once ?

Has anyone done a three-way merger at the same time ?

As to AA handling two others at once, I don't think so and they'll have to make a choice of one before the other. Should that be U (the likely first merger move) and then another goes after JB as a blocking move, if it's Delta, they'll have to relinquish some of that New York stuff to AA/U for compettive reasons. More likely, I think AA and U will announce a merger approximately 27 minutes after exiting Chapter 11 and concurrently a strong code-share deal with JB, Alaska and Hawaiian as they indicate in their TA.

Who knows........UAL could go after Jet Blue (their buses would be an easy fit) and after relinquishing a necessary percentage of NYC to AA/U, that could make the "big 3" fairly close trio in NYC. UAL/JB gives up the JB E-190's to AA/U (U already flies these) along with a specific number of NYC slots and you could have a very similar-sized and competitive NYC structure that would appease regulators.

Just my .02

My opinion and point above exactly, i.e., whatever occurs, the big 3 are fairly close in NYC market share and if one of the other two take B6, they'll have to divvy up some to AA/U. Agreed about PHL and U's International stake there.

Now if say, SWA makles a play for JB...........well, then it gets interesting. SWA at JFK would be an odd thing, of course, but they may have no choice about not running away from ANY airport or market.

A recent presentation that I attended showed UAL with closer to 27% of the NY market, and DAL with 26%..

Numbers and statistics are only as good as their recency and accuracy though, so who knows what the current numbers are.

Regardless, I am not sure that DAL is really interested in JB. I don't KNOW that.. it is just a hunch. I would think we could grow the Caribbean organically if necessary, which is why I am not sure JB is in the sights. There are more slot controlled markets that DAL needs. JMHO.