Sunvox and other Yes voters,
Please consider the other argument. I lifted it from the other forum. It is not my writing.
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That fear is totally misplaced, and the product of a disinformation campaign that has been launched by the UAL MEC officers and their proxies in order to justify this sub-standard JCBA TA. I have previously posted this on the UAL side of this forum:
The pilots hold all of the leverage. It is immaterial as to whether one believes that under the NMB we can secure release. If this contract is not ratified, it will cost the company millions of dollars. The company has already stated that they must begin recalls to the United side in the early half of 2013. This is driven not only by retirements, but by the staffing demands dictated by the adoption of FAR Part 117 that the company must be able to comply with by the end of 2013. Each recall could create as many as 3 training cycles, which at $50,000 a cycle could with a mere 200 recalls cost the company over $30 million dollars--without even accounting for the lost productivity for 2-3 months of the individual pilot who will not be flying on the CAL side, paid moves, PS tickets, etc. In addition, the company's plan is to retire 2 B757s a month throughout 2013 on the LUAL side. Beginning in August of 2013 it will start taking deliveries of 2 B737-900s a month on the LUAL side. If this contract is not ratified, TK is going to have to go through the process of establishing an entire B737NG training program from scratch. Including hiring PIs, SCs, building the syllabus and coursework, etc. This will cost the company millions of dollars in yet another duplicate training program.
Recently various MEC and LEC members have been floating a highly disingenuous fear campaign focussed on a straw man argument that this merger is going to become "US Air", or worse, "Eastern Airlines." The problems with this theory are manifold. They ignore the basic fact on the ground that the company's fleet plan going forward has already been presented, and the company has no intention of a massive drawdown in LUAL flying. While three of the provisions of the TPA are able to be terminated, it ignores the fact that the TPA can and likely will be extended, just as it has a previous time. Especially since CAL still has no profit sharing going forward, and no grievance to trade for $40 million dollars in 2013. (Speaking of which, that grievance filed by the UAL MEC regarding negotiations outside of the tripartite TPA are still ongoing, and a source of another $40 million dollars in leverage for this pilot group.) Humorously, the "rationalizations" being advanced for why an "Eastern Airlines" is taking place are the exact rationalizations that fully illustrate why this company cannot perform as a US Air or an Eastern Airlines. The mixing of flying that has already taken place between the LUAL and LCAL side has already fully committed the company to integration, they have become inextricable. That is the one of the primary causes of the disastrous summer which just took place. Unlike US Air, where East and West are confined to their own hubs and on occasion touch through on various spokes, the company has already moved massive amounts of flying allocations, and has created a quagmire where only by going to a single system can they regain control of the scheduling during any form of irregular operations or busy (summer/holiday) period. Hence the negative PRASM displayed by UCH in comparison to even a bankrupt AMR. This is a further source of hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue for the company that the company requires a JCBA from their pilots in order to recover. So, the fact that one sees all the CAL 737s in LAX, SFO, and DEN is the same proof that is evidenced by the enormous amount of *****ing in the CAL 767 categories of IAH and EWR that UAL 767s are "stealing all the flying."
But, let us ignore all of this tangible evidence. Let us instead postulate that Smisek has hidden in his desk drawer "Operation Hari Kari" that he will unleash on the United pilot group which will institute a draw down of flying to 2003 CBA block hours. This will require a concurrent drawdown in UAX block hours, all of which will precipitate millions of dollars in lost revenue. Let us even get to a Domesday Device scenario where LUAL pilots are furloughed in the process, which, as evidenced by the staffing needs demanded by retirements and FAR 117 are preposterous because it would cost the company millions of dollars to institute a furlough which could not last the minimum two years that is the breakeven point for even thinking of such a thing. In such case, the unexpired provision of the TPA that was somehow not extended would mandate that the UAL furloughees immediately be given jobs on the CAL side that would have to swell tremendously, in seniority order so that they are already holding lines and flying at the same rate as when they left UAL, while also being given a lump sum furlough pay of $30,000, continuing to hold LUAL recall rights to trigger millions in retraining pay down the road, and still getting a vote on the JCBA. This is the Doomsday scenario, and it still costs the company millions upon millions of dollars to do this, while unable to cover the summer flying in 2013.
You know what? This pilot group is like a big bear, with claws, with fangs--big fukcing teeth, man. With big fukcing teeth on you. And the company is just like this little bunny, just kind of cowering in the corner. And you got these claws, and you're staring at these claws, man, and you're thinking "How am I supposed to kill this bunny?" You're looking at your claws and you're looking at your fangs and you're thinking to yourself: "I don't know what to do. I don't know how to kill the bunny. With this, I don't know how to kill the bunnies."