No guarantee unfortunately. You roll the dice coming out of OCS or the Academy. You may find yourself steering a ship in the Bering sea. You can always keep applying though.
By wrong, I think he is incorrect. He stated his opinion on what he thought the heirarchy was on the chances of getting a FW slot, and I disagree. From my observation as a former flight student, I saw lots of Navy and Marine studs end up at S. Whiting who had no desire to fly helos. I saw 0 Coasties in that situation. If you wanted FW, you were sunny S. Texas bound! The fact USCG didn't even make his list is another thread all together
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If the CG needs to force students to go FW to put enough butts in FW seats, to me, that seems a good indicator that you got a pretty darn good chance of getting a FW slot if your dead set on going FW, and not getting stuck in a helo. It has everything to do with it.
You could make the same argument to 2loud then based on his list. Should someone join the AF just to get a FW slot? Why someone chooses to join a particular branch is their business, but from an empirical standpoint, and expanding on 2louds list, I think the CG offers an almost sure fire way to FW.
Without getting to bromantic here, I appreciate the nod to CG aviation. At times, I'd wished I had gone another branch, so I'm not saying it's the end all be all. I saw plusses and minuses to every branch. I even ended up flying with the Army post CG as a contractor, so I have literally worked with every one. Any option will be rewarding, and my hat is off to someone no matter what branch they fly for.