I agree there is no GA in China, but isn't that why they send their cadets to the US for flight training. Every FO I have met there did their flight training in the US. There is no way that they will ever be able to run their industry without Expats unless they stop their growth. With the stupid medicals that now the experienced national Captains are failing, because they are getting older, prevents any real experience from staying in the airline. Everyone of the instructors I met medical-ed out.
The best part is they are starting to see that there needs to be change to support their industry. It might take 5-10 years for the change to happen or it could be very little time, but when it does maybe some of the operational headaches might be smoothed over.
Now to control that pollution....

I am afraid you are right. I know some commercial pilots and they are looking for a job from a long time. They are seriously looking towards China as last option before to drop.

I have met several FOs here who did their training all within China. Perhaps it may just be because the airline I am with is located not far from China's largest flight school. But still many guys also did their training in the United States. I would say it is a 60/40 mix right now, with China being 60. What I am surprised at is how much time they make these guys sit in the right seat before upgrade. Not that it is a bad thing, but I figured 4-5 years as an FO before upgrade. But I am finding in many cases it is closer to 6-8 years before they can begin the upgrade process. The upgrade process can itself take in excess of a year as well. The FO I am flying with right now has been here since 2007. He has completed the upgrade sim training and checking, passed all the academic testing, passed the upgrade interview process, and he hopes to be able to start line training by early next year.

nothing happens quick in China

I think it depends upon the airline and the individual company needs for FOs. At my airline 100% of the Cadet pilots go the US for their initial flying. It takes about 1 year and they get all licenses up through Multi engine, CPL. The Chinese schools take 4 years as it is a University flying school so it just depends upon the needs of the individual airline for first Officers and how quickly they need FOs. Right now there are several contracts in China hiring 737 FOs. This is the first time it has happened so maybe there is also a shortage beginning in the FO requirements. There has always been a shortage of Captains but now we are seeing huge numbers of upgrades so in my opinion ExPats will be required less and less in the future but again this is airline specific depending upon each companies current needs. At my airline Cadets come from off the street, pass their CAAC medical and then go the the USA for 1 year. They come back and do intensive 737 sim and ground school training and then start flying 900 hours per year. It will take them about 3.5 years to get their 737 hours necessary for upgrade which is currently 2800 TT. Hence they will make 737 Captain in about 4-5 years currently from their off the street join date. This is quite common among other airlines in China but it is company specific. The sheer numbers they are producing right now is mind boggling.

Off the street to left seat in under 5 yrs. Who's mentoring them, the guy that did the same thing a couple of years ahead of them?

And you read about some of the companies automation requirements/SOP's for flying the a/c and you wonder how much real stick time they really have?

I made it fairly quickly in the U.S. - 13 yrs from start of training with 12 years work experience by the time I upgraded.

Yes it is very fast for upgrading. One new Chinese Captain spent 1.5 years as a 737 Captain and now is moving to the left seat of a 787 so in 6.5 years from off the street to 787 Captain with 5000 hours TT. Some guys have all the luck. The growth here is huge but for ExPats they only want experience with time on type for the most part. The young Captains upgrading here in China is unprecedented and almost mind boggling how many are upgrading. They do however have a very slow process which takes almost 6 months and numerous checks.

Just as a quick update regarding room for potential growth in China-

Last night I had a layover in Changchun, which is in northeastern China. The airport was opened in 2005 and serves the cities of Changchun and Jilin. The population of Changchun is seven million, including all of its administrative areas, while Jilin has four million in its administrative area. So the airport serves a population of roughly 11 million people. The population served is in between the populations of the Los Angeles area and the Chicago area. Those 11 million people are served by a new airport with 9 gates (jetways) and 13 additional remote parking stands. Can you imagine the entirety of the Los Angeles population being served by 9 jetways, or a total of 22 parking spots for airlines? I cannot imagine what it will look like in 20 years.

My guess would be a ghost town.

0 to 5000 in 6.5 years? What company is this that I need to stay away from when paxing around China??
fbh