No, that went away quite awhile ago. For some reason, though, AA CA must really be the holy grail as even the crappiest CA slot in the junior base gets snapped up by the mid 5000s... Blows my mind.

(WARNING: math in public)

Assumptions:

1) UAL will grow to 15,000 pilots in 5 years
2) The current junior pilot is ~12,500
3) UAL will experience ~500 retirements per year

Yes, and very theoretically, a new hire could be 10,000 out of 15,000 in five years placing him/her @ 67% and within the range of the most junior captain seat.

BUT ---if history is any indication--- no five year forecast in the airline business is ever accurate. SOMETHING always happens that changes the dynamic.

UAL could buy E190s and we could have three year captains based strictly on low pay and poor schedules.

Age 67 (or 70 or 75) could happen.

The regional pilot pay shortage could get fixed.

FO flight time minimums could get lowered thus helping the regional pilot shortage.

War could occur (again).

Oil prices could collapse....or double...or triple.

UAL could experience another merger.

The US economy could slide into another major recession.

There could be another successful terrorist attack against civilian aviation.

UAL could grow to a 17,000 pilot airline in five years.

The list is endless. The only constant is change. Ask a LUAL '97 hire that was a captain in 2000 or a LCAL '05 hire that was a captain in 2009 how fast things can change.

All one can do is get a seniority number and enjoy the ride....because it WILL be a ride with alternating periods of growth, stagnation, and backward movement over a 30 year career.

aa73,

As you well know, there's reality for the few and then there's reality for the rest of us. At United today, there are several thousand pilots who have spent the last 15 years essentially marching in place. And here's the rich part, if you listen long enough, you'll find out that its our fault because WE made a poor decision to come to UA in the late 90's. Just like it was a poor decision by all the GIANTS who went to work at PanAm, TWA, and Eastern in the 50's and 60's. Idiots all, I suppose.

I've been chasing the brass ring for almost 30 years. Pretty sure that I saw it once or twice, but it was only those pilots far in front of me who were in a position to reach for it.

I'd bet that for every (relatively senior, young) wide body Captain living the high life, there are probably 50 guys who'll never get there. Perspective, both historic and relative is an important asset in this line of work, and its the first thing tossed in the can by many new hires and many of those contemplating the career.

This thread is entertaining.

Been there done that. Fully expect to do it again.

You make a leetle joke, yes?

As a new hire, I'm hanging this timeline on my toolbox in the garage. It is probably the nearest to reality I've heard yet. I'll revisit when I'm 55.

Sounds like "you'll be in F-35's as a Captain"........

Hahaha, all this giddy talk is entertaining. Sounds like it's time for a furlough.

'96 - 727 SO
'97 - 727 FO
'99 - guppy Captain
'00 - 727 Captain
'02 - 767 FO
'04 - Bus FO

It feels like the late 90s again after seeing the last few vacancy bids. We had a few where there were 750+ awards, and it seemed we had vacancy bids every month. United was hiring 25 per month for as long as I can remember.

Right up until the big furlough.

Uhh....

Yeah....NO!

Worth a shot asking considering if the displacement was not of you own doing...