Quote:
Originally Posted by Excargodog
The larger "regional" jets are coming, from Embraer, Bombardier, Mitsubishi. These aircraft carry as many people as the DC-9 and early model 737s, albeit with somewhat reduced range. Boeing and Airbus have now tossed their considerable weight behind these programs. SOMEONE will be flying these aircraft in those markets where they make sense, because they are about a 20% fuel savings over other aircraft in the niche they were designed for. Currently what is holding them up is scope agreements. I picture one of several things happening.
1. They become entry level mainline flying.
2. Mainline pilots trade away scope to allow these aircraft to be flown by their codeshare regionals.
3. Someone builds a super regional, perhaps cobbled together from a couple of the non-mainline owned regionals, that isn't limited by scope contract language, maybe an Amazon Prime Air, that will dominate this niche of the market.
4. Some mainline with no scope limitations, such as Alaska, has their regional start flying these aircraft.
Nature hates a vacuum and so does business. With Boeing and Airbus now both backing bigger Embraers and Bombardiers, it WILL happen.
Great forecast... if it were 1997.
Embraer and Bombardier have been building large RJ's for decades. They have been flying at regionals for decades. The mainline flying was shifted to the regionals, and the FFD industry grew and grew until it became over 1/2 the departures each day. They already call the E175 a Guppy Killer, and for good reason. It's taken more mainline 737 and 319 flying down to the regional level than pilot groups anticipated. With companies like AA reducing Lav size to less than an old style phone booth to squeeze in more seats, these E175's are rapidly becoming the much more comfortable plane to fly on for passengers.
You won't see scope relief again. That regional growth should have been more mainline jobs had it not been for the scope giveaway. That contributed to the killing of mainline upgrades and growth for almost 10 years. You won't see additional scope relief.... further, with the pilot shortage over the next ten years there won't be anybody to fly them at the regionals anyway. There will be lots of regional industry contraction and acquisitions... (notice I did not say mergers) the wholly owned regionals will wait for the bankruptcies and buy the other regionals for the staffing, getting all the equipment for pennies on the dollar. Because they buy it in liquidation there won't be merger rights protections for the pilots; they'll simply be furloughed from the dying carrier and offered employment at the new one... recycling themselves at year one pay.
The wholly owned regionals will be given an even larger percentage of flow through mainline hiring as a means to force pilots to fly their regional feed for the opportunity of a mainline job. When 90% of all mainline new hires come directly from their owned regionals, you either fly for the WO career path you want, or fight with everybody else for that small 10% off the street window which will be friends, family and military direct hires. Good luck. This makes the WO regionals the entry level position to get to Delta, United & American.
That is where this is headed. That is how they will keep their WO staffed.
The only mergers could/would be among the several WO to form a single WO, much like AA did previously with all their "eagles."