What if...
08-14-2019 | 05:49 PM
#1
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Joined: Dec 2018
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What if...
Purely a hypothetical question for you intelligent folk...
The economy tanks in the near future, what is the effect on SkyWest ops? Majors? Hiring? Current contracts with partners? Other regionals? etc...
I realise last time it happened SkyWest got through minus furloughs, however I also realise it was a much smaller company at that time and the industry was a very different place too, so perhaps not how things would play out next time. Anyone have any insight or thoughts?
Again, just a hypothetical question. The news this evening got me thinking.
The economy tanks in the near future, what is the effect on SkyWest ops? Majors? Hiring? Current contracts with partners? Other regionals? etc...
I realise last time it happened SkyWest got through minus furloughs, however I also realise it was a much smaller company at that time and the industry was a very different place too, so perhaps not how things would play out next time. Anyone have any insight or thoughts?
Again, just a hypothetical question. The news this evening got me thinking.
08-14-2019 | 05:56 PM
#2
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Joined: Aug 2019
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Not being owned by a major or having a union... Skywest would be an easy target.
Purely a hypothetical question for you intelligent folk...
The economy tanks in the near future, what is the effect on SkyWest ops? Majors? Hiring? Current contracts with partners? Other regionals? etc...
I realise last time it happened SkyWest got through minus furloughs, however I also realise it was a much smaller company at that time and the industry was a very different place too, so perhaps not how things would play out next time. Anyone have any insight or thoughts?
Again, just a hypothetical question. The news this evening got me thinking.
The economy tanks in the near future, what is the effect on SkyWest ops? Majors? Hiring? Current contracts with partners? Other regionals? etc...
I realise last time it happened SkyWest got through minus furloughs, however I also realise it was a much smaller company at that time and the industry was a very different place too, so perhaps not how things would play out next time. Anyone have any insight or thoughts?
Again, just a hypothetical question. The news this evening got me thinking.
08-14-2019 | 06:24 PM
#3
New Hire
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 8
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The majors seem to file bankruptcy every 10-20 years and the regionals they own are negatively effected when that happens.
08-14-2019 | 06:32 PM
#4
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 4,302
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Ya. Don’t do “what if”. Plae and simple, It will happen at some point again. But i sure hope not that bad.. if you go off history, SkyWest will be fine. And being wholly owned historical hasn’t been good during the downturns... they do say history repeats itself.. Basically people going from complaining about flying to much. To like it was back in 2007 Complaining about not flying enough.... there seems to be a very small “happy window”....
08-14-2019 | 06:57 PM
#5
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Ya. Don’t do “what if”. Plae and simple, It will happen at some point again. But i sure hope not that bad.. if you go off history, SkyWest will be fine. And being wholly owned historical hasn’t been good during the downturns... they do say history repeats itself.. Basically people going from complaining about flying to much. To like it was back in 2007 Complaining about not flying enough.... there seems to be a very small “happy window”....
I'm just more curious on how next time may differ than previously, we are in unprecedented times for aviation with the number of retirements coming up, demand for pilots not only here but also globally, the amount of expansion going on and the public demand for air travel (which could maybe see a big rise for the LCC)
I am interested if with all these factors would we may see a blip or a big hit. As far as I can see everyone is still ordering new airplanes, expanding and even starting up new off shoot airlines (Moxy)
Of course that is not to say they can't all fall apart in a perfect financial storm.
08-14-2019 | 07:12 PM
#6
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2008
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Do some research on how much “cash on hand” OO has vs Mesa or even AA.. not saying thats a recession saver... but surely helps. With the amount of retirements will be fine. May slow things down a little. Thats why i tell people plan on regional time being double what you think... And hope its what you predicted..
08-14-2019 | 08:56 PM
#7
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
OO has contracts, and they raely do short-term contracts. A major can't just cancel their flying, they would have to make a deal to buy them out, and OO could and would insist on planes getting paid off, plus a chunk of change for profit's sake (they could and would ditch the labor in that scenario).
But if a major has WO feed, they'll just wind that down instead. They can sell the assets, ditch the labor, and not incur any penalties.
Also if you pay attention some desperate or bottom-feeder regionals do very short contracts... that allows the major to simply not renew.
OO is probably more secure in a downturn since it would be costly to get rid of them, other than any contracts which happen to expire in a downturn.
08-14-2019 | 09:03 PM
#9
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Also BK laws are now more severe than in the past, not in the favor of the debtor-in-possession (ie the airline managers who want to keep their jobs). No coincidence at all that both DAL and NWA filed BK immediately before the new laws took effect.
BK of a big airline will be a risky move in the future and likely involve a bailout anyway since the 4-5 biggest pax airlines are frankly too big to fail. Once you shutdown and yank their AOC, that lift is gone until someone else can acquire the planes, process them onto their cert, and hire/train the crews.
I think it would have to get pretty ugly to see big airlines in BK court.Of course ugly can happen for unforeseen reasons too...
08-15-2019 | 04:09 AM
#10
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Purely a hypothetical question for you intelligent folk...
The economy tanks in the near future, what is the effect on SkyWest ops? Majors? Hiring? Current contracts with partners? Other regionals? etc...
I realise last time it happened SkyWest got through minus furloughs, however I also realise it was a much smaller company at that time and the industry was a very different place too, so perhaps not how things would play out next time. Anyone have any insight or thoughts?
Again, just a hypothetical question. The news this evening got me thinking.
The economy tanks in the near future, what is the effect on SkyWest ops? Majors? Hiring? Current contracts with partners? Other regionals? etc...
I realise last time it happened SkyWest got through minus furloughs, however I also realise it was a much smaller company at that time and the industry was a very different place too, so perhaps not how things would play out next time. Anyone have any insight or thoughts?
Again, just a hypothetical question. The news this evening got me thinking.
Plus all the retirements will outpace the reduced flying if we do go in a recession.
Chillax homie and don’t fly to close to the sun or you might get some epic sun burn and tan like the President.
