If we want the economy back... oh wait it's too late.

But honestly we have destroyed everything to save a bunch of people that the flu probably would have killed anyway. High fives all around.

Are you really that stupid? Serious question..

He won’t be able to answer as he is on spring break in FL - totally wasted.

I prefer the term pragmatic... The death rate for anyone that is in good health and not of significant old age is something like 0.9% if they even contract the disease, and the epidemiologists are estimating only 40-70% of the population will contract the disease. The majority of elderly people and those who are not in good health have similar odds of dying from the flu.

You can check the stats on the virus here... overall there isn't much to be worrying about especially when you understand that the US is going to be hit nowhere near as hard as Italy due to a significantly lower median population age and significantly fewer smokers.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/

But whatever... you live your lives in fear and I'll keep shorting the market. We'll compare notes in a few years and see how everyone's doing.

I'm actually in my cabin in Montana doing some back country skiing this week since all of my flying for the month cancelled.

There are a number of people with very advanced degrees asking the same question, although not quite so indelicately. Just read an opinion piece from a Stanford epidemiologist whose essential argument was that, in this case, our 'cure' for this virus (shut the economy down) may be worse than the disease itself.

Put another way: if these containment methods cause a full-blown Great Depression (which, if you read Goldman Sachs' Friday projection of Q2 US GDP falling by 25 percent, an absolutely unheard of number, is absolutely plausible) -- well, think of all the deaths caused by utter despair. Suicides, murders, domestic violence, and an increase in deaths unrelated to the virus, among those who can't afford care...all of these things, in a for-real Depression, may well result in far, far more deaths than even the most dire predictions for this coronavirus.

Of course, the psychological cost of seeing potentially 3.6 million Americans die (1 pct of our population, assuming a 50 pct infection rate and a 2 pct death rate among that 50 -- a rate which tracks to South Korea's actual results) -- well, that would be horrible. And no policymaker, ever, could come out and basically say 'We're gonna have to let Grandma fight this on her own."

So yeah. We're kinda screwed either way.

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Duuu—-uuude! Par-TAY!!


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i think it certainly has begun. The great unknown is how far the fall and how long the recovery. My guess is nearly every large carrier will enter bankruptcy within months or weeks and take many regionals down with them in the swirl. The pilot shortage has definitely come to an end. It will be years before things are normalized again.

You hit the nail on the head.

Have you done the math on your own numbers? That's well over 1 million dead using the 0.9% good health and not old category. Just here in the U.S.

I don't believe the CFR isn't that high for those under 50-60 though.

ONLY 40-70%?? So by your own numbers a minimum of 132 million people will get the disease, and you don’t consider that dire because ONLY 11 million of those will die? And that’s if 40% get it, not the 70% on the high end of your estimation.

stick to the back country, and let the reasonable people sort this one out.