CQ Before Furlough?

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06-10-2020, 07:03 PM

#21

TheOtherGuy25

Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Feb 2020

Posts: 140

Quote:

Originally Posted by domino

yes, individual airlines are varying but UA for example says it’s about 1.5% per week. That would get them to 60% by October at which point the furloughs begin. Other airlines have different numbers but as pointed out, it will plateau. IATA has projected full recovery by 2024.

Statistics when it comes to how the recovery will happen are absolutely guesses at the very best. IATA, UA, DL, the government even...no one has a clue how this will play out in the end, seriously. They have no idea how fast things will get back to normal, everyone is taking a bet. We are all on the same roller coaster ride here and waiting to see when we get off.

For example, everyone expected unemployment to hit 20% a few days back, and what did it do? Entirely the opposite from what was anticipated.

06-11-2020, 06:23 AM

#22

rickair7777

Prime Minister/Moderator

Joined APC: Jan 2006

Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim

Posts: 39,275

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOtherGuy25

Safe to say there will be a full recovery, question is really just how long. All the people who traveled in 2019 are still out there, and a lot of them have cabin fever. They won't all have jobs, but they do have skills, and will need to get back to work when the government cheese runs out.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOtherGuy25

For example, everyone expected unemployment to hit 20% a few days back, and what did it do? Entirely the opposite from what was anticipated.

I'll take good news but I'm skeptical of that data, either way. Some people (like some of us) may be technically still employed due to stimulus money, but how long will that last? Others are employed in industries which may have a backlog or boost due to COVID but will suffer as the downturn ripples through the economy. I'll be pleasantly surprised if the whole bounces back within 12-18 months, but we know some sectors will still be feeling it... the legacies may still be running furlough bids 12 months from now.

06-11-2020, 05:37 PM

#23

domino

Gets Weekends Off

Joined APC: Nov 2016

Posts: 880

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777

... the legacies may still be running furlough bids 12 months from now.

I agree. This time next year it won’t be out of the realm of possibility to have 20,000 pilots out of work and some airlines completely collapsed. It’s already happening in Europe and the toll is getting worse day by day. Once the government money runs out....all bets are off. It’s full on survival mode.