Forget the premium. It’s about the TFP!
 

Okay, don’t forget about chasing the premium and certainly let’s take advantage of it while we can but given the latest earnings call and the Kompany literally verbalizing that they want to staff enough pilots to where they don’t have to pay premium, it is ABSOLUTELY IMPERATIVE that we make a drastic gain in our TFP rates on this contract!

If you haven’t already done so, start fleshing out how much our purchasing power has eroded due to their blatant dragging out of negotiations. Two years to even respond to our proposal? Insulting!

How about the large inflation with no end in sight? If this keeps up (which it will for a while) we’re looking at at least a 40-50% hit to our purchasing power from when we passed the current contract.

I respectfully implore you to up your expectations in the pay rates part of our contract because we’re getting our collective asses handed to us by the Kompany’s stall tactics and past, present, and future inflation.

Given their recent statements to stomp out premium pay and overstaff the airline (like 2017) shouldn’t we be basing our pay expectations on 90-100 TFP/month? If so we need a very sizable bump in rates.

Yup, I picked up on those comments as well. What’ll be interesting to watch as these next few new hire classes start is whether the company can even hire as many as they want without raising our rates. If the trend from the last 2 classes continues, I don’t think we’ll need to worry about them over-hiring anytime soon.

100 isn’t too far off from 108. How about just the monthly min. 89 TFP

Exactly what I was thinking. They are delusional if they think they’ll be able to hire and retain enough pilots to not have to pay premium anytime soon. It’s not 2005 anymore. Everyone is hiring and they are all hiring from the same pool of pilots. There’s no magical beans that grow some mythical pilot pool out of thin air. The reality of the pilot labor market has clearly not him them yet up at the GO.

Quite possible and actually more than likely that the poor turn out of new-hires continues. However, them not being able to over-hire doesn’t negate the fact that we need a drastic increase in TFP rates.

Here’s another reason why. What if during the next contract cycle we are in an abysmal economic environment and they flat out refuse to agree to any significant increase in rates? What do we want our starting position to be? What we vote in now (whenever the hell “now” ends up being) is what we might have to live with for a long time to come. The country is being ran into the ground. We better make some large gains while we still have the leverage.

Absolutely agreed. You’re right.

Completely agree. Please everyone read and reread this.

Career earnings expectations need to be based on line guarantee, which is the obvious vision of management. Don't fool yourself with 787 hangars, Explosive Growth, and other chugs of Kool-Aide.

To your point, it's a widely held belief that JetBlue's attempt to acquire Spirit is largely about adding more pilots to property. Sure, there's probably some synergies with network and the NEO order book is worth something, but make no mistake, pilot retention is a huge issue at the low cost carriers. With the news today that the F9/NK deal is likely to prevail per Spirit's BOD, this paints JetBlue into a precarious situation. On the current trajectory, Southwest could find themselves in dire straits if they don't get a handle on the operation and pilot recruitment. Because SWA doesn't have quick upgrades, total benefits package, airframe diversity / 737s that millennials don't want to fly, widebody international flying, rapid seniority gain, retirements, etc., Southwest is going to need a sexy contract to attract people to being FOs on the guppy for 10-15 years. Southwest isn't bad, but just about everywhere else looks more attractive on paper.

He’s not wrong. FUPM

Looks like negotiations are going good ,the company is willing to give us about 38 million for sick time and LTD while taking almost 130 million from us. At this rate we’re looking at taking a 30 -40 percent pay cut by the time the company makes an offer .

Yes we do need drastically improved pay rates, along with drastically improved many other items, like disability insurance, loss of license, retirement plans, work rules, and hotel language. And on and on.


I've said this before: to get us up to year 2000 UA 737 captain inflation-adjusted pay rates requires more than a 50% pay rate increase from where we're at right now. Isn't it interesting that SWAPA limited the maximum pay raise increase that you could tell them you are hoping for in the April poll to 40%? What does that tell you? It tells me that SWAPA is anchoring the pilot group to a maximum 40% pay raise as a starting position to work lower from.


Moreover, to be able to attain even the 40% pay rate raise that SWAPA has set as its maximum ask from the company AND to also achieve the many other improvements that many of us would like to see requires leverage. Everyone is fixated on the pilot shortage issue as our major source of leverage. Is there actually a genuine pilot shortage issue at Southwest Airlines? That is not a settled question. And, for argument's sake, even if there is a true pilot shortage issue at Southwest, it could go away tomorrow if the economy takes a major dump or some other black swan event materializes. Then what is our leverage if and when that occurs?


SWAPA has not even entered into mediation yet two-plus years after the amendable date. I cannot stress enough how important starting the mediation timer is in the process of developing leverage under the RLA. In the eyes of the NMB and in the eyes of the courts, all of this time since the amendable date spent in direct negotiations with the company counts for virtually nothing. To ever have any leverage accrue for us under the RLA, we HAVE TO enter into mediation. Then, we have to spend a significant amount of time in mediation before the NMB would ever consider releasing us from mediation. The actual, real potential for a release from mediation into a cooling-off period and possible self-help is what creates fear in the company's heart of a "book-away" phenomenon developing among our passengers as news reports begin to circulate that Southwest pilots might actually, for real go on strike at some point in the not-too-distant future. Going through mediation is a necessary condition for obtaining that leverage.


Leverage under the RLA is always available to us. It does not depend on the economy or a pilot shortage. But, leverage under the RLA is only available to us if we effectively play the RLA game. Right now, we have ZERO leverage under the RLA. We will continue to until we've spent a significant amount of time in mediation. We could have filed for mediation 12 months, 18 months, 24 months ago. We could have been allowing the clock to run this whole time - and allowing our leverage under the RLA to build. The clock would have started ticking had we filed for mediation. But we haven't yet filed. And the clock hasn't started ticking.

Absolutely agree. The best way to make us more attractive is to give us real industry leading pay rates. 12 year Capt rate equal to wide body Capt rates. FO rates equal to narrow body Capt rates at other carriers. This solves our fleet diversity, upgrade time and career earnings issues we face.

It is imperative that we keep our eyes on what other airlines are doing in terms of contract renewal. Personally, I could care less what the the current 737 or 787 contract rates are at other carriers. I am a lot more concerned with what their next contract rate will be.

I think which ever airline of the big 4 signs first is not only going to set the bar for pay rates, work rules, LTD, inflation protection and healthcare, but be at a huge disadvantage. The benefactors are going to be the pilots of the other carriers. I have no problem delaying to let another carrier go first.

I think we should be aggressive in pursuing all avenues to move toward a contract, but I really do not want Southwest to be the first to sign. However, we need to be in position to leverage everything we have immediately following that signature.

I’m liking what I’m reading here but then I fly with many who are just plain out to lunch.

What makes you think our bean counters have any vision beyond what's on their spreadsheet? Until they can quantify this on their spreadsheets and had multiple studies done to prove it to them, it'll be way too late. Reminds me of a book From Worst to First by Gordon Bethune and the pizza example he used:

Excellent analogy RJS. Perfect.

But.

The Canoe.

It's right where he wants it to be.

it’s in the ballpark.

Laser focused, and within one standard deviation.

Great point. I agree completely. I hope the bean counters get it before there are no more beans to count.

And in the Ballpark

We could keep this going for a while I'm thinking
​​​​😜

90 to 100 TFP I get that now. Maybe our unions and our Airlines need to get out of bed with one particular political party and we might all be better off. You know the one that caused.

1. Inflation 8.5% and Climbing
2. Gasoline and Heating Costs Up 48%
3. Natural Gas Up 21.6%
4. Electricity Up 11.1%
5. Rents Up 15.2%

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...71857e2df.jpeg
If you want us to be unified, then don't artificially divide us.

Nailed it.

Well, he’s not wrong. It was the Dumocrats that caused this. Sorry, but that’s the truth.

Forget the premium. It’s about the TFP!
 

I like you, so I don't want to get into the mud. Bottom line is that in a month and a half we have to put aside all of our differences, and stand side by side holding signs in numbers too great to ignore. We need unity on par with 2016 or better.

That means it doesn't matter what our politics are, what our religion is, our favorite football team, military or civilian, hired or acquired, pay for training or earned the type, college or not, or how we think we got here.

We have to stand unified and resolute. And we simply can't do that if we are sniping with one another over tribal BS that isn't relevant to the matter at hand. We've got to leave that stuff at the door and embrace that which makes us brothers and sisters instead. Let's find things we can agree on instead, like making fun of the guys who choose THAT day to pick up premium. [emoji849]

Agree with Zap. Political mud slinging at this point (and really at any point) is ridiculous and counter productive.

There will be pilots walking past us on June 21st to report for that phat premium trip that they got in open time that morning. Meanwhile, I am driving 8 hours round trip on my vacation week (and foregoing what could be a very profitable week) to be there.

Let's turn our collective scorn towards the company and those in our own ranks who can't bother to get engaged when we need them.

Totally agree, Zap. Just keeping the record straight as to who is responsible for this insane inflation. See you on the 21st of next month as long as I can get the day off.

Bottom 10 in MCO... chances of NOT having to do a reserve day on the 21st?? I cant book anything until the 11th :(

Bottom 10….guessing weekend Rsv. Bid lines that start on Fri and hope there’s a 3 day block.

Consider trying your to trade your MCO reserve block for a trip or reserve block in Dallas the weekend leading into the 21st. You finish up on the 20th and you’re already in town.

In all likelihood there’s someone who lives in Florida and is commuting to DAL. Might be win win.

Just an idea. I did that in 16’ for the Chicago picket. Cost me an extra hotel room, but it worked.

Look at you mr. thinker. Ill def see what I can work. Its hard to get rid of or trade a 4 day whatever (wknd) reserve.
Gonna give it the ol college try.

Also remember if you book with Rapid Rewards points, they're fully refundable, even the cheapest tickets. I went ahead and booked with points hoping I'll be able to get the 20th/21st off. If I don't, I'll get them back.

Also don’t forget DFW. Not sure if there will be a shuttle running but the DART is easy and cheap.

Forget the premium. It’s about the TFP!
 

As long as we are talking options about getting into or out of the metroplex for the picket, don't forget Alliance. FedEx operates a hub there, and once you list for their jumpseat, it's space positive.

Atlas (Prime Air) also has a sizable operation there.

If you were driving it's about :45 minutes from there to Love Field.
Heading back, take the Dart rail to Grapevine or DFW and Uber the rest of the way. I'd give myself 2 hours of doing it that way, just to be safe. Not ideal I admit, but it's space positive, and you don't have to worry about getting stuck in a middle seat!

LOL!! So the inflation we are experiencing now isn't relevant? Really? Interesting all this was for- told. This is why I don't support the union's thinking, its always some else fault. SWAPA is not going to change anything they are not relevant. In a few years many of the officers of this SWAPA will be sitting right over at the Ivory tower, just wait and see.

I heard a passenger in SAN tell another passenger that he books the cheapest ticket and then uses the free change feature to book the actual flight he wants for free. Is this a thing now?

I thought it was you could change it for free, but you still have to pay the fare difference if there is one.

If there is a change to your itinerary (which it seems like there always is these days) then yes, any changes are free. Otherwise, you can book a non-wanna get away fare and do the standby thing, but that's dicey. My guess is that he was either doing the former or talking out of his arse.

We can talk about the value of a TFP, NEC, Sick etc. The bottom line is we get what we negotiate. If we want an industry leading contract, we have to have industry leading negotiations. In 50 years, industry lagging is our claim to fame. Someone will say yeah, "but we never laid anyone off". We got close last year and the kompany has shown its colors repeatedly trying to force experimental medical procedures on employees. Only 16% of us voted NO for the current contract. That means 84% are happy with a lagging product. We have had opportunity to leverage, but chose not to. Short sightedness brings about a lagging contract. Somewhere, the sights have to be lifted.