01-15-2024Quote:
It's definitely a hot pilot market. And so you -- I guess, hot employee market as well. You have to work extra to hire people and to keep people. And so, it's a record year from our pilot hiring.
It's also a record year for pilot attrition, but it's a modest number that is not sufficient to actually change our plan. So, we -- our amount of flying we have this year and the next is not at all affected by this, kind of, a little bit uptick in attrition this year. We do see pilots as a kind of a job hop around the industry, trying to maximize their personal game, what airline appeals them the best. And I don't begrudge that to them because it's -- once you start with the main line, it becomes there for a little while it's kind of lifelong commitment because seniority system.
And so, we do see some people who come and leave right away, but it's -- I think it kind of spiked here in the second quarter and now it's kind of even starting to tail off a little bit.
Sure, he could be posturing. But, in this case, I think he's telling the truth as he sees it. Why do I think that? Because it makes sense. Losing 180 pilots this year cost them $13 million in training costs, according to the 21 July NC email. That's virtually nothing for them in seven months when Q2 earnings were $683 million and operating revenue was $7 billion. BJ also said today on CNBC that by the end of Q3 they'd no longer be constrained by pilot supply.It's definitely a hot pilot market. And so you -- I guess, hot employee market as well. You have to work extra to hire people and to keep people. And so, it's a record year from our pilot hiring.
It's also a record year for pilot attrition, but it's a modest number that is not sufficient to actually change our plan. So, we -- our amount of flying we have this year and the next is not at all affected by this, kind of, a little bit uptick in attrition this year. We do see pilots as a kind of a job hop around the industry, trying to maximize their personal game, what airline appeals them the best. And I don't begrudge that to them because it's -- once you start with the main line, it becomes there for a little while it's kind of lifelong commitment because seniority system.
And so, we do see some people who come and leave right away, but it's -- I think it kind of spiked here in the second quarter and now it's kind of even starting to tail off a little bit.
Given the above, I don't think the level of attrition we're seeing right now is anywhere near enough to faze them. IMO, attrition would have to increase from 183 in the first seven months of this year to something more like 183 per day for them to be moved by it.
The point? We need to stop deluding ourselves into thinking that the attrition issue is leverage. They don't care. In fact, they might prefer higher attrition because it keeps longevity costs down and it keeps our ranks proportionately more full of 20-somethings who don't mind as much 12+ hour duty days and short overnights and are happier than most guys who've been around a while to simply be flying "big" jet airliners.
We need to live in reality, not pilot fantasy land. We want pilot attrition to matter to them. But they simply don't care.
Talking about pilot attrition as if it matters to them only distracts us from our goal of exerting maximum pressure on the company in order to achieve a truly industry-leading contract by causing us to direct attention and time toward something that doesn't move the needle. Only the credible threat of a legal strike is capable of moving the needle enough to obtain an industry-leading contract.
That is our leverage. It is extremely strong leverage. That is what we need to be focused on.
The loss of ~$78 million per day in operating revenue on top of the brand injury and operational impact that will naturally result from a legal work stoppage poses an existential threat to them. That matters to them. They do care about that.
When they finally look up from their stovepipes and spreadsheets into the metaphorical barrel of a pistol cocked and loaded with a legal strike about to fire off in a few hours, then stuff will get real for them. For the time being, though, they're doing exactly what FordHarrison is telling them to do: stall, delay, confuse, obfuscate, bob, weave, chaff, and flares.
And for us, it's our resolve to not fold before management has come to Jesus at the hands of the RLA in the midst of the most favorable negotiating environment for airline pilots in history that will deliver to us an industry-leading contract. We need to play the RLA long game. We may never again get a swing at a ball this primed to be batted out of the park.
