That is the reality now. I doubt it will be the reality in 6 months. Even with little growth, LAX is going to start trending a lot more junior. Crew planning stated they are going to grow the western bases minus Denver, so I would suspect there will even be a little growth in there to help out. While past performance is not an indication of future results, during previous periods of sustained pilot hiring, any base but the outliers (ATL, now DEN) were able to be held in short order, under 6 months. When the music stops, it stops, but right now it is just getting going and AUS will be done building out for the most part in July.
Not throwing shade at any other LA operation, as I am sure they are great, but our LA base is probably the best in the system for great trips, great crews, and a sensible front office. It is worth waiting a bit for.

 

I wouldn’t plan my life around anything crew planning says until it’s on paper and locked in with a vacancy. MS can say one thing and do another, and has regularly done so over the last two years.

 

Flew with someone that said "Let's see what the Eye of Sutcliffe has in store for us" when the last vacancy report came out. Got a good laugh out of that one.

 

Talked to a few SWAPA sked analytics guys and they said, "we were literally in a meeting with MS talking about vacancies and their plans and they told us about the ATL displacements. They never said a word about DEN and other bases. We found out same time as you guys and said, "WTF""

Hard for the union to do their job when they can't even get accurate info (even under a NDA). Not like they did the meeting with the union and then changed their minds over the next 12 hours.

 

Whatever the case Is right now, it will be different soon. I used to say that the further west that you lived, the better SWA serves as a career choice. The East coast guys have gotten a lot of relief recently and the west coast guys are feeling some pain. I don’t know what will happen next but it will definitely be different than what’s happening today!

 

Wow. A page or so ago there was some really bad gouge given. A couple of people said “at least 2 years minimum to hold LAX’ and “the most junior is over 2 years in” and then they left it at that. While technically true on the most junior being over 2 years, it is disingenuous at best.

The reason the most junior there is 2+ years in is because we didn’t hire for almost two years. The proper way to look at it is the overall seniority percentage holding each base and where that stands. For example, the most junior person at LAX was hired 2 years and 2 months ago, but up until a few months ago, their overall seniority in the company was 98 percent. In other words, it is a junior base.

Anything could happen if we stop hiring. But if we continue to hire over the rest of the year at the rate we are forecasting, then holding LAX is likely 4-6 months after IOE. Definitely not multiple years.

 

Thats assuming LAX has vacancies. There have been nothing but displacements out west since last year. They shrunk OAK last month…where do you think those guys went? And they kicked out people that went to other bases out west. Until some poor pilot ended up with a commute to the east coast.

That takes awhile to unwind…so 4-6 mos may be true and it may be completely wrong. What would help is actual vacancies out west….

 

Ok, how’s this:
Nobody knows.

In all likelihood, LAX will get some vacancies as the whole system has to absorb all the new hires. Will you be able to hold it? Likely, but not definitely. Will you be able to hold Denver? Unlikely.

Based on what has happened in the past, just about any base has eventually been attainable due to system growth and movement. Bases that have shrunk significantly (DEN/ATL) notwithstanding. Give it a few months.

People are understandably a bit jaded right now due to the past couple of years and are projecting their frustrations on the question. There are some really junior pilots in LAX. As the system goes, it’s one of the more junior bases. Fair enough?

 

I stand by what I said. There are a ton of displaced west coast FO’s who are all going to be able to return to their base of choice before a NH has a chance to. Yes it may be a dim view, but I’m not going to sugarcoat it.

And yes, this could change at a moments notice. All depends on what the Eye of Sutcliffe has in store.

 

FWIW the bottom 2 FOs in LAX were just hired back in Feb (this year), and in the June vacancy a few 187k numbers got in. So 2 years is not accurate.

As always your mileage may vary, no warranty expressed or implied. No refunds or exchanges.