gloopy

The current plan of keeping T2, expanding T4, tearing down T3 and building the longest bridge in the universe will be adequate to meet DL's needs, but not ideal. Getting from T2 to T4 when its all said and done will result in, I think literally, the longest walk in the world at any airport within a given airline's terminal system from furthest gate to furthest gate.

T5 is a much better match with T4. Plus the roof on top already has the perfect space for the widget of imperial domination.

Also I don't buy the talking point about how the vacant T3 space will be useful as some parallel universe platform 9 and 3/4 to stash irop aircraft or do donuts in 777's or whatever it is they were trying to sell when they came up with that nonsense. I see something being built there, just not now and maybe not even by DL.

There's a lot of speculation about T6, and as CR mentioned above, some think it will become a combined JB terminal. That is certainlly a very viable possibility, but I really don't buy any claims that JB (or any airline for that matter) "owns" any terminal, especially one they aren't using. I suspect they probably have some first right of refusal to some extent, but even that would have to be the sexiest offer to the bureaucrats. I very much doubt they have a blank check on it especially if someone else (SWA?) makes a move on it. To really do anything grand with it will require epic capex, although you could throw a hundred mil or so of lipstick on it (nothing gets done cheap in NYC) and it would be OK. But I'd love to see the fire marshall sign off on T6 filled with foreign widebody pax. Remember, the same talking heads that say JB "owns" T6 and "will" make an international powerhouse terminal out of it or whatever are the same ones that have been saying for many years that T5 couldn't handel the weight of widebodies. LOLZ!

Also JB has been getting pretty much a free pass with their little code share frenzy. I suspect those salad days are coming to an end. Once DL gets a massive LGA domestic hub in place and is running a better JFK ops with at least a partial terminal solution and UA gets their merger sewed up, and especially when AA/US tie the knot, the competition will really kick into gear. I'd expect a lot of the relatively modest amount of marketshare all the legacys havebeen losing to JB's little foreign code share with any flag carrier on earth to suddenly become significantly less lucrative. The biggest one, LH, will be able to tap into a much bigger NYC market with UCAL at EWR than what JB can offer, and with first class and higher frequency to most markets anyway. Most of the others will be crushed by VASTLY superior connecitvity on either or both ends.

So no, DL doesn't "need" T5 (although it would be nice to have and building a bridge between 5 and 4 wouldn't be that big of a deal), and IMHO will probably not end up in it. I'd give it a 33% chance of happening, however JB's future with AA/US and/or SWA plays out.

ClipperJet

Interesting topic, but what exactly does this thread have to do with the Southwest AirTran merger? Shouldn't it be moved?

gloopy

Maybe it drifted too far, but WRT that I think SW will be a major player with JB and the terminal situation (all of them, not just T5) at JFK is a significant part of that and how it could all play out.

So technically nothing to do with the SW/AT merger from 2010, but possibly a lot to do with the new SW going forward as the ONLY way they are going to ever become a major player in NYC is to buy or fragment JB (or AA or DL or UA of course, but which is more likely or even possible?)

Clear Right

Obviously nobody "owns" the JFK terminals, the Port Authority clearly leases the property. But, it is a matter of Public record that B6 has the lease for T6, which is being remodeled, with plans to include a customs facility. I believe it will be called T5I (JetBlues International Terminal). Again, people often forget B6's traffic is approximately 25-30% international operations to Caribbean, Latin America, with plans to grow Latin America.

Flyby1206

I wonder how significant NYC is to SWA. Yes, it is no doubt the biggest market in the country, but there is an incredible amount of competition and JFK is not really a domestic airport. The value of JB JFK ops would be higher to someone like AA who has a lot of international traffic, as opposed to SWA who is a domestic carrier.

I really dont think SWA is capable of turning into an international powerhouse. Their IT is so far behind the times, and even if they buy JB they will have a serious amount of work to do before they can take full advantage of a JFK hub.

Justdoinmyjob

Delta actually owns the physical structure being built on T4, PA owns the land. Kinda like how the British had a 99 year lease on Hong Kong from the Chinese.

gloopy

I agree with pretty much all of that. But SWA needs into a big NYC airport big time and there just isn't enough of a presence anywhere, barring a very unlikely large asset sale at AA, other than JB at JFK. I'm sure they would rather have a massive LGA presence but if AA doesn't basically liquidate, and they're not going to, then all or large parts of JB at JFK are the consolation prize they are going to have to settle for.

JFK may not be as good a domestic airport at LGA, but its proven it can suffice in that role. I don't think SWA will attempt becoming an international powerhouse for a while. If they ever do they will be absolutely crushed unless they time it perfectly again to when multipile legacies are on the ropes and they have another lucky multibillion dollar hedge bet, etc. For now though, gaining a sizeable foothold in the world's most important domestic market is the next step in their manifest destiny they simply can't afford to pass up. Growing the "near international" aka pseudo international presence JB brings to nicely suppliment what AT brought is just icing on the cake.

You make a good point about AA. SWA's need to want ratio for a large NYC presence right now is probably around 50:50, while AA's is 90:10, with or without a US merger. AA needs it more and sooner, but I can't see SW letting it go without a fight and its hard to imagine either walking away without making some level of the gains they each need. However they both do it.

salukipilot

How ironic.

at6d

Wow! Necropost of the day! What did I miss?

FWIW the system chief told me there was no way we were opening a BNA base. Surprise!

Nothing out of WN yet. Stay calm.

waterskisabersw

Holy Thread Resurrection Batman indeed. It is an interesting read though. Basically the same format as the current debates.

Pilots in the know talking about industry problems dejour being fixed by a merger. Shows how these things tend to involve concerns over a much longer time scale than pilots are looking. And how many "pressing concern" items really aren't on the radar of management.