Go Back  Airline Pilot Central Forums > Airline Pilot Forums > Major > Spirit
Report from Wall Street >

Report from Wall Street

Search
Notices

Report from Wall Street

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 02-26-2018, 01:10 PM
  #1  
Line Holder
Thread Starter
 
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 39
Default Report from Wall Street

Sloppy journalism or is this author using a different source of numbers than our NC?

"At the start of 2015, the stock traded in the $70s. Since then, the company has built in another $700 million in annual revenue turnover and booked over $1 billion in net profit. With a market cap of $2.74 billion, as long as the earnings continue to come in, the company is worth at least double. As for the pilot union negotiation, Spirit has reached a tentative deal which could mean an increase of $120 million in pay over the next five years. It’s a far better and more reasonable deal than what was on the table last summer, and voting is set to conclude at the end of this month. In the meantime, Spirit is a bargain."

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/64597...pirit-airlines
CMFIC is offline  
Old 02-26-2018, 01:36 PM
  #2  
Gets Weekends Off
 
flyguyniner11's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Nov 2006
Position: A320 CA
Posts: 765
Default

Originally Posted by CMFIC View Post
Sloppy journalism or is this author using a different source of numbers than our NC?

"At the start of 2015, the stock traded in the $70s. Since then, the company has built in another $700 million in annual revenue turnover and booked over $1 billion in net profit. With a market cap of $2.74 billion, as long as the earnings continue to come in, the company is worth at least double. As for the pilot union negotiation, Spirit has reached a tentative deal which could mean an increase of $120 million in pay over the next five years. It’s a far better and more reasonable deal than what was on the table last summer, and voting is set to conclude at the end of this month. In the meantime, Spirit is a bargain."

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/64597...pirit-airlines
Well this TA equals 400,000$ more money for me alone over 5yrs, unless we only have 300 pilots I’d sat the 120m is way off.....
flyguyniner11 is offline  
Old 02-26-2018, 01:39 PM
  #3  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: 319/320/321...whatever it takes.
Posts: 492
Default

Originally Posted by CMFIC View Post
Sloppy journalism or is this author using a different source of numbers than our NC?

"At the start of 2015, the stock traded in the $70s. Since then, the company has built in another $700 million in annual revenue turnover and booked over $1 billion in net profit. With a market cap of $2.74 billion, as long as the earnings continue to come in, the company is worth at least double. As for the pilot union negotiation, Spirit has reached a tentative deal which could mean an increase of $120 million in pay over the next five years. It’s a far better and more reasonable deal than what was on the table last summer, and voting is set to conclude at the end of this month. In the meantime, Spirit is a bargain."

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/64597...pirit-airlines
I think he’s off just a little bit. Assuming a $50,000 a year raise (average, but I think it’s more) times 1800 pilots, that equals $90 million per year. So around $500M Just in pay over 5 years. Plus harder to quantify QOL stuff like trip rigs etc. he was probably told those numbers by our management who is trying to downplay it to make themselves look better.
Left Handed is offline  
Old 02-26-2018, 08:13 PM
  #4  
Line Holder
Thread Starter
 
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 39
Default

Originally Posted by Left Handed View Post
I think he’s off just a little bit. Assuming a $50,000 a year raise (average, but I think it’s more) times 1800 pilots, that equals $90 million per year. So around $500M Just in pay over 5 years. Plus harder to quantify QOL stuff like trip rigs etc. he was probably told those numbers by our management who is trying to downplay it to make themselves look better.
A $50k-80k pay raise per pilot, average?

Now let's estimate if each of our pilots, rather than flying an average of 550 hours per year, does 850 hours per year under the T/A. If that ratio is anywhere close to correct, we'd need 1300 pilots to accomplish the same amount of work as 2,000 pilots today... or 2600 pilots to fly the same schedule it would currently require 4,000 pilots. This would be a much more standard ratio of pilots per plane than we currently have- i.e., that's where were headed with this T/A.

Multiply the number of pilots (that we won't need under the T/A) by the average cost per pilot (salary, benefits, payroll tax, etc). That's where the savings are going to roll in for the airline. Even before the savings from substandard hourly rates, which are much more meaningless to the airline than we're giving them credit for.

Now the 120M increase sounds more realistic- and the quoted 12M/year savings for the airline is clearly bull*******
CMFIC is offline  
Old 02-27-2018, 03:44 AM
  #5  
Gets Weekends Off
 
flyguyniner11's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Nov 2006
Position: A320 CA
Posts: 765
Default

Originally Posted by CMFIC View Post
A $50k-80k pay raise per pilot, average?

Now let's estimate if each of our pilots, rather than flying an average of 550 hours per year, does 850 hours per year under the T/A. If that ratio is anywhere close to correct, we'd need 1300 pilots to accomplish the same amount of work as 2,000 pilots today... or 2600 pilots to fly the same schedule it would currently require 4,000 pilots. This would be a much more standard ratio of pilots per plane than we currently have- i.e., that's where were headed with this T/A.

Multiply the number of pilots (that we won't need under the T/A) by the average cost per pilot (salary, benefits, payroll tax, etc). That's where the savings are going to roll in for the airline. Even before the savings from substandard hourly rates, which are much more meaningless to the airline than we're giving them credit for.

Now the 120M increase sounds more realistic- and the quoted 12M/year savings for the airline is clearly bull*******
So you u are assuming every pilot works and gets paid less than guarantee every month? 72x12=864....
Math is haaarrddddd
flyguyniner11 is offline  
Old 02-27-2018, 04:51 AM
  #6  
Line Holder
Thread Starter
 
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 39
Default

Originally Posted by flyguyniner11 View Post
So you u are assuming every pilot works and gets paid less than guarantee every month? 72x12=864....
Math is haaarrddddd
If you think the average Spirit pilots flies anywhere close to 864 block hours per year under our CBA, I've got a T/A to sell to you.
CMFIC is offline  
Old 02-27-2018, 06:41 AM
  #7  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Oct 2013
Posts: 456
Default

Originally Posted by CMFIC View Post
If you think the average Spirit pilots flies anywhere close to 864 block hours per year under our CBA, I've got a T/A to sell to you.
It’s not block hours that matter, it’s all about the credit.
Dukeuno is offline  
Old 02-27-2018, 07:52 AM
  #8  
Banned
 
Joined APC: Jul 2015
Posts: 775
Default

Originally Posted by flyguyniner11 View Post
Well this TA equals 400,000$ more money for me alone over 5yrs, unless we only have 300 pilots I’d sat the 120m is way off.....
You're not valuing the give backs from the pilots correctly. We've been paid NOT to fly with our current deal. With the new TA you've got to fly to get paid. Just like SWA. How have so many missed this fact? Clearly no one at ALPA can do math accurately. The guys on Wall Street do this for a living and bet real money. Over the next couple of years it will become clear the Pilots screwed up by voting for this POS! Buy the stock!
Super EZ E is offline  
Old 02-27-2018, 09:07 AM
  #9  
Line Holder
 
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 49
Default

Originally Posted by Super EZ E View Post
You're not valuing the give backs from the pilots correctly. We've been paid NOT to fly with our current deal. With the new TA you've got to fly to get paid. Just like SWA. How have so many missed this fact? Clearly no one at ALPA can do math accurately. The guys on Wall Street do this for a living and bet real money. Over the next couple of years it will become clear the Pilots screwed up by voting for this POS! Buy the stock!
Hmmm, that sounds like the mantra of the 'ole 26% club for the current agreement. Now many of those same loudmouths are repeating the same, tired, illogical reasoning. So now you want to keep the bad 2010 deal? Interesting.
ForTheWin is offline  
Old 02-27-2018, 11:35 AM
  #10  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,423
Default

Originally Posted by Super EZ E View Post
You're not valuing the give backs from the pilots correctly. We've been paid NOT to fly with our current deal. With the new TA you've got to fly to get paid. Just like SWA. How have so many missed this fact? Clearly no one at ALPA can do math accurately. The guys on Wall Street do this for a living and bet real money. Over the next couple of years it will become clear the Pilots screwed up by voting for this POS! Buy the stock!

We'll fly no where near what SWA pilots fly. Those who will fly an extra 200 a year will most likely be the 10% living the transition. It does suck, but the other 90% think living with no LTD, scope or retirement sucks more than a few having to fly. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
putzin is offline  
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
EWRflyr
Major
10
11-24-2010 10:46 AM
unemployedagain
Hangar Talk
26
02-07-2009 04:37 PM
RedGuy
Regional
49
04-29-2008 02:03 PM
АЕРОФЛОТ 214
Regional
11
05-18-2007 05:18 AM
Freighter Captain
Cargo
0
06-28-2005 05:59 AM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



Your Privacy Choices