Is anyone noticing the “lets see if it sticks” model of expansion and nonstops that F9 is doing?! Quite amazing for their size and how many new routes of P to P they are adding. Alot more than us it seems. Barry and Frankie have motivation to see what works. IF and I say IF a Merger were to ever happen, we would have little overlap. F9 seems to be toying with lots of tech hubs and expansion points that truly no-body else is doing. NK and F9 pilots any thoughts? (And as a side note, every F9 pilot that I’ve ever encountered has been very nice, cool, professional, and slightly ****ed off or more (like Spirit). I truly believe we would be a very common and integral fit. Just IMHO. Cheers!

 

When a merger looks good, you're in trouble! IPO cash out was always the end game. The boys have to pump it up and make it look like a cash cow for wall street to take notice. CASH OUT! If I were at F9 I'd be very concerned about the future. It looks like a shell game to me. "Look we have new airplanes coming!" Really??? "Look double the size in a year!" That only doubles your problems! F9 has a solid product just crap for an owner. Junior guys should bail out! If you look at size integration NK/F9. I'd say 3 to 1 ratio. NK is right at 2200 pilots and F9 1100? Don't see it. NK has the same product not the same marketing plan. NK is more like SWA, F9 is more Allegiant model. IMHO

 

Super EZ nailed it. If we add 50 new routes with much gusto and fanfare we likely subtracted 48 old routes that underperformed. On the bright side it’s good business sense to stop doing things that lose you money (or don’t make expected profits) but short term. In the long term, which most of us view doesn’t exist in Indigo’s plan, it shows your customer that they can’t count on you to be there the next time they need you.

As for the “doubling in size” I truly think that’s the plan because each airplane and pilot they add to move said airplane puts more money in their pocket. But I see it taking longer than they think and finding the number of pilots to fly them will be a difficult task even WITH a new contract.

And lastly, yeah, the NK and F9 pilot groups are both groups that have been beat up by management and that brings some commonality and solidarity. We’d all get along just fine after the obvious pain a SLI would bring.

 

I think our management said at some point last year that we would be adding more frequency and fewer new routes than in the past because lots of single flights per day or per week kills your reliability

 

I think you are right. Spirit and Frontier are both trying to carve out their niche. We (f9) do very few of the same routes which is smart. Frontier does a shocking number of routes only 3 or 4 flights per week, a highly unusual business plan. It is a bit more Allegiant in a way, and we tend to serve more mid sized cities than Spirit.

We have done a massive amount of the "see if it sticks" thing. Trenton, NJ has really stuck. While others like Washington Dulles totally flopped.

Anyhow, I do not see a merger any time soon. Both companies have organic growth planned. Frontier has a massive aircraft order and spirit is shopping for a new order. Our marketing model is pretty different and I think both management believe there is a huge market for cheap flights in the US. There is room for both of us. For now at least.

 

Keep in mind that while F9 is growing slowly, all of these new routes announced a few times a year usually come at the cost of previous routes. From what I’ve seen, the overall net growth/route expansion is not what it would seem if you only read the headlines of where ‘F9 is beginning service next week.’

 

Still think its an ideal merger, but not ideal right now.
We will start bumping t elbows in a few years.
Then not long after that we will start bumping uglies and
give birth to ugly little airbii.

 

Only in the sense we both fly A320. Trust me Frankie is pumping and dumping F9.