10/5 New Hire class
10-05-2018 | 08:32 PM
#62
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Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,839
Likes: 3
Actually, it’s just a poorly worded post. He’s implying that we are using Boeing’s offer to get new Airbii at a discount rather than needing to shop the certified pre-owner market for the next order.
It does kinda read like the “new order” implies Boeing. But that’s not what he meant.
It does kinda read like the “new order” implies Boeing. But that’s not what he meant.
10-05-2018 | 09:46 PM
#63
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Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 1,370
Likes: 147
Seriously, if you can find them, go back a year or two and see what the company is specifically bragging about with respect to CASM drivers (tailwinds) and what they see as both served and potential markets. If you go back 2 years you'd see that the company was bragging about pilot "juniority" (their exact word) as a CASM tailwind, meaning that the fact that they had a high churn rate with new FOs quitting after a year or two, and underpaying the entire pilot group, was reducing their costs. When the contract negotiations got bitter, they removed that entry and then the whole slide kind of went away. Around that time, they were bragging that they were growing fast and had somewhere around 500 routes and markets they could make a profit on, and only growth constraints kept them from making a ton of money in those areas. A quarter or two later they were forced to discuss barriers to growth, specifically why they were not serving all those previously identified profitable routes, and then they finally admitted that they couldn't grow at all without a new pilot contract. The TA was approved just a couple of months later (middle of the quarter actually, just under 2 months later if I recall correctly) and people can draw whatever conclusions they like from how that timing worked out.
So you have to go back almost 2 years to really get a feel for how they've had to change their story and to understand how even minor changes can signal fairly major decisions the company is having to make.
10-06-2018 | 07:26 AM
#64
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,451
Likes: 24
From: Airplanes
Honestly I don't know, I started reading the SWA ones instead, back in March when I jumped ship
Seriously, if you can find them, go back a year or two and see what the company is specifically bragging about with respect to CASM drivers (tailwinds) and what they see as both served and potential markets. If you go back 2 years you'd see that the company was bragging about pilot "juniority" (their exact word) as a CASM tailwind, meaning that the fact that they had a high churn rate with new FOs quitting after a year or two, and underpaying the entire pilot group, was reducing their costs. When the contract negotiations got bitter, they removed that entry and then the whole slide kind of went away. Around that time, they were bragging that they were growing fast and had somewhere around 500 routes and markets they could make a profit on, and only growth constraints kept them from making a ton of money in those areas. A quarter or two later they were forced to discuss barriers to growth, specifically why they were not serving all those previously identified profitable routes, and then they finally admitted that they couldn't grow at all without a new pilot contract. The TA was approved just a couple of months later (middle of the quarter actually, just under 2 months later if I recall correctly) and people can draw whatever conclusions they like from how that timing worked out.
So you have to go back almost 2 years to really get a feel for how they've had to change their story and to understand how even minor changes can signal fairly major decisions the company is having to make.
Seriously, if you can find them, go back a year or two and see what the company is specifically bragging about with respect to CASM drivers (tailwinds) and what they see as both served and potential markets. If you go back 2 years you'd see that the company was bragging about pilot "juniority" (their exact word) as a CASM tailwind, meaning that the fact that they had a high churn rate with new FOs quitting after a year or two, and underpaying the entire pilot group, was reducing their costs. When the contract negotiations got bitter, they removed that entry and then the whole slide kind of went away. Around that time, they were bragging that they were growing fast and had somewhere around 500 routes and markets they could make a profit on, and only growth constraints kept them from making a ton of money in those areas. A quarter or two later they were forced to discuss barriers to growth, specifically why they were not serving all those previously identified profitable routes, and then they finally admitted that they couldn't grow at all without a new pilot contract. The TA was approved just a couple of months later (middle of the quarter actually, just under 2 months later if I recall correctly) and people can draw whatever conclusions they like from how that timing worked out.
So you have to go back almost 2 years to really get a feel for how they've had to change their story and to understand how even minor changes can signal fairly major decisions the company is having to make.
10-06-2018 | 08:40 PM
#66
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Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 1,370
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100% honestly, short term it's been more work for about the same pay (post-contract at spirit). Medium term, I've had some personal "issues" that the company helped me with, and I appreciate that. Long term, it's a company with a proven track record that is expected to continue, and that feels more secure than my time at Spirit did. Plus profit sharing, plus my boss didn't sue me for an imagined work slowdown.
I think the trust factor is the biggest difference. I'm not naive enough to imagine our upcoming contract negotiations will be peaches and cream, but I do have confidence that my boss won't put the company at risk just to stretch the old contract out one or two extra months. Riots at the gate? I just don't think I'll have to live through that again and that's worth the extra effort for me personally.
I still can't say enough good things about the pilots I flew with at Spirit. They taught me the job and with very few exceptions I enjoyed flying with almost everyone I shared the cockpit with. Spirit is known as being commuter friendly, and that is a direct result of the quality of their pilot group. That's something a contract can't get you, it has to come from the inside the pilot group itself. My choice to jump ship was nearly 100% based on management and company leadership culture, and I "won the lottery" to end up with a company with another awesome pilot group and a management team that doesn't treat me like crap.
I've said it before... A Spirit pilot with 4 or more years on the seniority list may be best off remaining at Spirit, at least financially. The career pay is very level (at the narrowbody tier) now compared to all the other majors and the possibility of a 5 year upgrade makes up for a lot, in terms of QOL and pay. Plus Spirit's business model is printing money and there's no sign that things will change anytime soon.
That's why I read the investor slides... I finished my USAF career with a deep distrust of the senior leadership in my organization. I've been there, done that, and I don't want to be in that position again. I gave up a ton of of short-term pay to get to my last ever job in the airline industry, with my decisions strongly biased by my last few year's experience in the USAF not trusting anyone higher than my wing commander for the last 8 or so years of my career. That sucked and I don't want to do that again.
'
I think the trust factor is the biggest difference. I'm not naive enough to imagine our upcoming contract negotiations will be peaches and cream, but I do have confidence that my boss won't put the company at risk just to stretch the old contract out one or two extra months. Riots at the gate? I just don't think I'll have to live through that again and that's worth the extra effort for me personally.
I still can't say enough good things about the pilots I flew with at Spirit. They taught me the job and with very few exceptions I enjoyed flying with almost everyone I shared the cockpit with. Spirit is known as being commuter friendly, and that is a direct result of the quality of their pilot group. That's something a contract can't get you, it has to come from the inside the pilot group itself. My choice to jump ship was nearly 100% based on management and company leadership culture, and I "won the lottery" to end up with a company with another awesome pilot group and a management team that doesn't treat me like crap.
I've said it before... A Spirit pilot with 4 or more years on the seniority list may be best off remaining at Spirit, at least financially. The career pay is very level (at the narrowbody tier) now compared to all the other majors and the possibility of a 5 year upgrade makes up for a lot, in terms of QOL and pay. Plus Spirit's business model is printing money and there's no sign that things will change anytime soon.
That's why I read the investor slides... I finished my USAF career with a deep distrust of the senior leadership in my organization. I've been there, done that, and I don't want to be in that position again. I gave up a ton of of short-term pay to get to my last ever job in the airline industry, with my decisions strongly biased by my last few year's experience in the USAF not trusting anyone higher than my wing commander for the last 8 or so years of my career. That sucked and I don't want to do that again.
'
10-06-2018 | 09:14 PM
#67
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Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 1,370
Likes: 147
Ok, now you got me thinking about it again.
Last investor slides: http://ir.spirit.com/static-files/c9...f-4b9fd3eff1d5
Slide 3. Look at the listed opportunities. International. Bullet 2, cost gap relative to competitors. Improving guest relations.
Does a new aircraft meet those objectives? If you ask the airframe builders, yea. A new dramatically more efficient airframe certainly could help lead the trend for lower operating expenses and a better customer experience. However...
In slide 4, they point out that many of Spirit's routes are low frequency point to point. That does NOT argue for a smaller aircraft. There are multiple references to international destinations, which also don't seem to argue for smaller aircraft. We're looking at 320/321 aircraft with rafts, and they bring up those growth areas repeatedly. What planes do you want to take international?
Slide 5 just highlights why Spirit is different. Important, but not for the question of if you're gonna buy another airframe. Interestingly, it does seem to justify things like wifi though.
Slide 7 - PBS. You guys are gonna work just a bit more than you did in the past. Hopefully the contract keeps you from getting abused and you get paid well for the more efficient lines you're gonna be flying.
Slide 8 - more benefits of PBS plus a return to the use of the term "juniority", meaning they're relying on Spirit not being a true top tier airline from a career perspective, as a CASM driver. It's gonna be on you guys and ALPA to decide if that's a battleground or your happy place. Honestly I'm surprised to see this, but it's the brutal truth. Your new contract is miles ahead of the old one but it's still low cost compared to your competitors. Note that the more the company grows, the more important "juniority" is to the CASM bottom line (and the longer you'll be blessed with a 5 year upgrade). If the economy stagnates you'll find yourself in the same situation as SWA, with a very level seniority list who are are happy to stay where they are because the company is able to avoid bankruptcy when everyone else is drowning.
Slide 9 takeaway is the second to last bullet, about operational reliability. Is the company willing to risk one of their greatest advantages (fleet uniformity and reliability) to bring in a new and unproven aircraft type? My bet would be no, but your new CEO is a finance guy so he might be more comfortable counting beans than counting on-time dispatch rates.
Slide 7 - talking about existing and new routes having 150+ pax each way. That does NOT argue well for anything smaller than a 319 unless the reliability is PROVEN and the improved efficiency and bottom line dollar benefits are compelling.
Slide 10 also talks about how much lower you guys can go before an economic downturn will cause you to pull out of markets, with a stated ability to cut ticket prices by 25% and still survive. True for a 5 year outlook considering current and new markets.
Slide 12. Should have a sub-title in BOLD letters "Why we do not need another aircraft type". This slide is new to me, seems pretty straightforward unless it's intentionally deceptive (don't automatically discount that possibility).
Slide 13 - lots of new hires and upgrades for all my friends! Should be comforting and at the same time provide ammo for ALPA in their next negotiation window. 5 yrs.. ugh. Sorry guys.
Last bullet is scary. "Fleet options" past 2021. First mention of a new aircraft type, but it seems almost like it's trying to keep pressure on airbus to refresh the 320 family like boeing has kept the 737 alive with "real" upgrades and improvements. What's the real story there? First big question mark of the entire presentation!
Slide 14 - you guys are awesome but we're not giving you more money.
Slide 15 - we are awesome but we're not giving you more money.
Slide 16 - look how awesome we are because we're not paying you legacy compensation.
slide 17 - We're investing in our money-printing machinery because it's been working so well for us.
Slide 18 - Suckers! Boo-yah! #profit
Yea, my MBA was mail order. Suck it. Or educate yourself on what your company is doing and where they're going, BEFORE they spring PBS version 2 on you in a few years.
Edit - Slide 22, they add a line "Adjusted operating income adjusted for pilot work action and Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria (5)". They're sticking to their story about how the pilot group tried to sabotage the company last May with the totally fabricated "work slowdown". See my above post about trust, and that's why I don't work for Spirit anymore in spite of all the things the company is doing right. That line right there is all you need to know about how the next contract negotiations are going to go.
Last investor slides: http://ir.spirit.com/static-files/c9...f-4b9fd3eff1d5
Slide 3. Look at the listed opportunities. International. Bullet 2, cost gap relative to competitors. Improving guest relations.
Does a new aircraft meet those objectives? If you ask the airframe builders, yea. A new dramatically more efficient airframe certainly could help lead the trend for lower operating expenses and a better customer experience. However...
In slide 4, they point out that many of Spirit's routes are low frequency point to point. That does NOT argue for a smaller aircraft. There are multiple references to international destinations, which also don't seem to argue for smaller aircraft. We're looking at 320/321 aircraft with rafts, and they bring up those growth areas repeatedly. What planes do you want to take international?
Slide 5 just highlights why Spirit is different. Important, but not for the question of if you're gonna buy another airframe. Interestingly, it does seem to justify things like wifi though.
Slide 7 - PBS. You guys are gonna work just a bit more than you did in the past. Hopefully the contract keeps you from getting abused and you get paid well for the more efficient lines you're gonna be flying.
Slide 8 - more benefits of PBS plus a return to the use of the term "juniority", meaning they're relying on Spirit not being a true top tier airline from a career perspective, as a CASM driver. It's gonna be on you guys and ALPA to decide if that's a battleground or your happy place. Honestly I'm surprised to see this, but it's the brutal truth. Your new contract is miles ahead of the old one but it's still low cost compared to your competitors. Note that the more the company grows, the more important "juniority" is to the CASM bottom line (and the longer you'll be blessed with a 5 year upgrade). If the economy stagnates you'll find yourself in the same situation as SWA, with a very level seniority list who are are happy to stay where they are because the company is able to avoid bankruptcy when everyone else is drowning.
Slide 9 takeaway is the second to last bullet, about operational reliability. Is the company willing to risk one of their greatest advantages (fleet uniformity and reliability) to bring in a new and unproven aircraft type? My bet would be no, but your new CEO is a finance guy so he might be more comfortable counting beans than counting on-time dispatch rates.
Slide 7 - talking about existing and new routes having 150+ pax each way. That does NOT argue well for anything smaller than a 319 unless the reliability is PROVEN and the improved efficiency and bottom line dollar benefits are compelling.
Slide 10 also talks about how much lower you guys can go before an economic downturn will cause you to pull out of markets, with a stated ability to cut ticket prices by 25% and still survive. True for a 5 year outlook considering current and new markets.
Slide 12. Should have a sub-title in BOLD letters "Why we do not need another aircraft type". This slide is new to me, seems pretty straightforward unless it's intentionally deceptive (don't automatically discount that possibility).
Slide 13 - lots of new hires and upgrades for all my friends! Should be comforting and at the same time provide ammo for ALPA in their next negotiation window. 5 yrs.. ugh. Sorry guys.
Last bullet is scary. "Fleet options" past 2021. First mention of a new aircraft type, but it seems almost like it's trying to keep pressure on airbus to refresh the 320 family like boeing has kept the 737 alive with "real" upgrades and improvements. What's the real story there? First big question mark of the entire presentation!
Slide 14 - you guys are awesome but we're not giving you more money.
Slide 15 - we are awesome but we're not giving you more money.
Slide 16 - look how awesome we are because we're not paying you legacy compensation.
slide 17 - We're investing in our money-printing machinery because it's been working so well for us.
Slide 18 - Suckers! Boo-yah! #profit
Yea, my MBA was mail order. Suck it. Or educate yourself on what your company is doing and where they're going, BEFORE they spring PBS version 2 on you in a few years.
Edit - Slide 22, they add a line "Adjusted operating income adjusted for pilot work action and Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria (5)". They're sticking to their story about how the pilot group tried to sabotage the company last May with the totally fabricated "work slowdown". See my above post about trust, and that's why I don't work for Spirit anymore in spite of all the things the company is doing right. That line right there is all you need to know about how the next contract negotiations are going to go.
Last edited by flensr; 10-06-2018 at 09:27 PM.
10-07-2018 | 09:22 AM
#70
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,603
Likes: 0
I think he actually took the time to educate himself. He formed opinions based on information straight from Ted to investors. His opinions may be right and they may be wrong but all pilots groups would be better off being more educated on the companies they work for imo.
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