Why? Do you assume AA, UA, or DL will merge too?

 

It's not just him, but analysts and CEO's alike think there will be more industry consolidation to come. Whether it's us and F9, unknown. I'd assume he's just making a WAG.

 

One thing that would help is my parents life halfway between me and DFW so I could sit reserve at their place.

 

I wasn't trying to attack him. I was genuinely curious why people think we would. My opinion is that we wouldn't. F9 and NK run two different airlines. F9 is more of an Allegiant 3 day a week service to everywhere and we're more of a leisure destination with higher frequency. The other hangup is that Indigio would want to sell at a premium and Spirit would want to buy at a discount. It would be like trying to trade in a car for retail and buying the new one at wholesale.

 

Not sure on dfw honestly. I will say if I was you I’d pick Frontier hands down. They have a new aircraft order and planned growth. I feel like our contracts are “similar” (I’m sure someone will point out the area’s I’m wrong in). But without a new aircraft order (which we don’t have) you won’t ever upgrade here. Good luck!


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F9 guy here...
Both Airlines have bottom of the barrel contracts. The good thing is that both are much closer to industry standard then few years back. So hopefully next round of negotiations both will be industry standard.
F9 still has a ways to go when it comes to improving its operation. If we do go public that will improve drastically because board of directors will not put up with the current practices. We are scheduled to have 215 airplanes by 2024 (I think we are around high 80s now). Indigo is not a high risk investors, so i don't see them moving airplanes around. Only thing that worries me is selling those frames to a higher bidder. Upgrades are running around 55-57%. That was the case for me when i upgraded and still is today. There is a strong rumor of a TX base possible this year (aus or Sat).
NK has great crews, they have been nothing but accommodating whenever i ride on them. I actually prefer to ride on them over most airlines.

 

LOL. So much Koolaid...

 

The “NK doesn’t have an aircraft order” angst is some of the silliest ****** I’ve seen. As though the music just stops in 2021 and Spirit will never grow again.

The business model is reliant on growing 15% a year. We’re picking up airframes wherever we can find them. That’s not indicative of a company that’s done with growth. Either Spirit will place an order and continue to grow organically, will be merged with someone with a bunch of slots in hand, might be bought by a legacy or the economy falls off a cliff and it’s all moot anyway.

Granted, I think they waited a bit too long and are scrambling to reach acceptable terms with production slots available on a timeline that NK would like. But I’m not worried about things just stopping cold in 20 months. That might mean aggressive vulturism as we see today or a separate fleet order. It doesn’t mean standing pat where we’re at.

 

I don’t think you can go wrong with either. I’d pick the one that has a base closest to where you want to live long term. As others have said the contracts are basically equally good/bad. Same airplanes. New order is coming at Spirit so I wouldn’t put too much weight into the big order at Frontier when choosing as Spirit isn’t just going to bow out and stop growing. More international flying and overnights at Spirit if that’s your thing. Single occupancy hotel during training at Spirit. Indigo has a reputation for being even more unfriendly to labor than Spirit. Other than that I dunno man. Personal preference. If I were you I’d take the first class date offered as they’re each basically the same thing.


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I didn't feel like you were attacking him, just making a comment. I agree with your assessment of F9.

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