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Halon1211 02-24-2020 09:29 AM

Spirit Stock
 
Look at our stock, more than a a tenth of Spirit’s valuation has been wiped away today...Dang Coronavirous and Bernie. But I guess it’s all of the market.

I wish I knew how to short sell stock before today...

Excargodog 02-24-2020 02:34 PM


Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 2982859)
Look at our stock, more than a a tenth of Spirit’s valuation has been wiped away today...Dang Coronavirous and Bernie. But I guess it’s all of the market.

I wish I knew how to short sell stock before today...

Do not put any serious amount of your investments in company stock. That’s as near an ironclad rule as you can find in investing. And I LIKE Spirit both as a company and an investment, and it is doing well, but not diversifying and instead putting all your retirement eggs in one basket is as stupid as only wiring one AOA sensor to your MCAS when you could have just as easily wired in both. You create a single point failure problem and are a single bird strike away from having to wrestle with a potential catastrophe.

RemoveB4flght 02-24-2020 03:25 PM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 2983125)
Do not put any serious amount of your investments in company stock. That’s as near an ironclad rule as you can find in investing. And I LIKE Spirit both as a company and an investment, and it is doing well, but not diversifying and instead putting all your retirement eggs in one basket is as stupid as only wiring one AOA sensor to your MCAS when you could have just as easily wired in both. You create a single point failure problem and are a single bird strike away from having to wrestle with a potential catastrophe.

The irony of your statement is that Spirit Aerosystems, which has nothing to do with us, is tied to the 737 Max fiasco. It’s been shown that bad news from Boeing on several occasions has prompted sell offs of our stock by funds who conflated us with the other aviation company named Spirit.

Super EZ E 02-24-2020 04:07 PM

Get ready to buy! Folks panic sell then its time to make money! I'm talking about the market as a whole.

Excargodog 02-24-2020 04:13 PM


Originally Posted by Super EZ E (Post 2983211)
Get ready to buy! Folks panic sell then its time to make money! I'm talking about the market as a whole.

^^^THIS^^^

FlyGuy2002 02-24-2020 05:19 PM

People, who say you can’t buy stock in your own company make me scratch my head . A good stock is a good stock. Period. The misnomer is that it’s ‘putting all your eggs in one basket’...... its widely accepted that if a huge percentage of your savings in your own company is risky. It is. And not prudent . Ask folks at Enron. There are several articles on the subject. However , buying a great stock , like I think spirit is, is prudent investing. Picking up, 200/300/400 shares against a $500,000 portfolio is like 5% of your portfolio. Hardly a life crushing amount if it tanks. Even 1000 shares is less than 10%. Plenty of folks at Amazon, google, Nike, etc , have made a fortune buying the company they know. Risk tolerance , savings amount , nest egg size, are all factors , but I personally feel owning your own company is completely acceptable, as long as it’s a minor portion of a diversified portfolio. Like most things, just keep it Within reason. I also feel at such a cheap price.....the growth, trajectory, balance sheet, momentum this company has... it’s a screaming buy . I only own 300 shares... wish I had the ability to pick up another 1000..

DrSteveBrule 02-24-2020 05:36 PM

I bought april 32.50 puts at 40. Wait til WHO declares COVID a global pandemic. DOW below 25k? Good chance.

Excargodog 02-24-2020 05:36 PM


Originally Posted by FlyGuy2002 (Post 2983282)
People, who say you can’t buy stock in your own company make me scratch my head . A good stock is a good stock. Period. The misnomer is that it’s ‘putting all your eggs in one basket’...... its widely accepted that if a huge percentage of your savings in your own company is risky. It is. And not prudent . Ask folks at Enron. There are several articles on the subject. However , buying a great stock , like I think spirit is, is prudent investing. Picking up, 200/300/400 shares against a $500,000 portfolio is like 5% of your portfolio. Hardly a life crushing amount if it tanks. Even 1000 shares is less than 10%. Plenty of folks at Amazon, google, Nike, etc , have made a fortune buying the company they know. Risk tolerance , savings amount , nest egg size, are all factors , but I personally feel owning your own company is completely acceptable, as long as it’s a minor portion of a diversified portfolio. Like most things, just keep it Within reason. I also feel at such a cheap price.....the growth, trajectory, balance sheet, momentum this company has... it’s a screaming buy . I only own 300 shares... wish I had the ability to pick up another 1000..

I’d largely agree - at 5-10%. What I said was

Do not put any serious amount of your investments in company stock

FlyGuy2002 02-24-2020 05:41 PM

Serious amount depends on the person. We all agree 80% of your portfolio in your own company stock is risky . Dumb. The perfect amount is subjective. I’m just saying I hear guys say they heard Cramer or some uncle say “don’t own company stock” . That’s a misnomer , and if it’s a good stock in your opinion, buy it . In my opinion spirit is a fantastic long term play. Let’s make a little money

Tranquility 02-24-2020 06:45 PM

Which airline stock took a huge dump toady; SAVE, LUV or DAL?? Which stock has a strong balance sheet with gobs of cash? Which stock pays a dividend and is decreasing their debt? I know which airline stock I’d put my money into, and it’s not the company I work for. And, I’m avoiding the whole sector, so moot point....

DrSteveBrule 02-24-2020 07:11 PM

puts for tendies

Aero1900 02-24-2020 07:35 PM

Zig when the market Zags.

Be fearful when everyone is greedy. Be greedy when everyone is fearful. Buy the dip

Halon1211 02-24-2020 07:38 PM


Originally Posted by Super EZ E (Post 2983211)
Get ready to buy! Folks panic sell then its time to make money! I'm talking about the market as a whole.

thats what I plan on doing. Now just to figure out when it will bottom out...

Tranquility 02-24-2020 08:20 PM


Originally Posted by Aero1900 (Post 2983377)
Zig when the market Zags.

Be fearful when everyone is greedy. Be greedy when everyone is fearful. Buy the dip

Great Buffet quote. Still not cheap enough for me to commit serious capital to an airline... I’m VERY greedy, like Mr. Wonderful...

trescommas 02-25-2020 06:23 PM


Originally Posted by DrSteveBrule (Post 2983363)
puts for tendies

This guy r/wallstreetbets!

Qotsaautopilot 02-26-2020 03:33 PM

So where’s the bottom? Five year low it looks like today. Obviously the market as a whole is in free fall and airlines especially so but with corona not really hitting the US or Latin America in a meaningful way right now I don’t see any reason for Spirit tanking. I want to throw some more money at it but just when I think it’s right it moves lower.

I don’t dare look at my 401k the last two days luckily my horizon is pretty far out, but my investment account has been a blood bath. I took a closer look at the handful of stocks I own and I liked them before the fall so I should like them more now but hesitate using more cash to buy more not knowing if we are due for more falling.

DrSteveBrule 02-26-2020 04:19 PM

anybody's guess. Feels more like a long overdue correction than a recession, but we're one isolated outbreak from another 5 percent down day. It's pricing in the global economy now, i still dont think a wide spread US outbreak is priced in. Until one happens, i suppose it doesnt need to be priced in. When i look at industrials, i see anything staying above DOW 25k as a bull market correction. If she slips below 25k? Now we're flirting with 20% retraction. I hit strike and sold my AAL puts today. Holding my Save 32.50 puts but nearly sold them. My brain is telling me there is no good reason for people to reinvest in transports right now. Put window is gone. Volatility is nuts and i cant stand it. My goal is all cash before 4pm Friday, then wait.

ASAPsafetyGUY 02-26-2020 04:53 PM


Originally Posted by DrSteveBrule (Post 2984818)
anybody's guess. Feels more like a long overdue correction than a recession, but we're one isolated outbreak from another 5 percent down day. It's pricing in the global economy now, i still dont think a wide spread US outbreak is priced in. Until one happens, i suppose it doesnt need to be priced in. When i look at industrials, i see anything staying above DOW 25k as a bull market correction. If she slips below 25k? Now we're flirting with 20% retraction. I hit strike and sold my AAL puts today. Holding my Save 32.50 puts but nearly sold them. My brain is telling me there is no good reason for people to reinvest in transports right now. Put window is gone. Volatility is nuts and i cant stand it. My goal is all cash before 4pm Friday, then wait.

I am all cash for now. I think the worst is yet to come. Trade will shutter once reports of US infections start to rise.

Flyby1206 02-26-2020 04:55 PM


Originally Posted by DrSteveBrule (Post 2983363)
puts for tendies

🌈 🐻

this is the way

Qotsaautopilot 02-26-2020 06:37 PM

How about spirit specifically? We are falling with the other airlines and we have zero Asia exposure.

AllOva736 02-26-2020 06:43 PM


Originally Posted by Qotsaautopilot (Post 2984899)
How about spirit specifically? We are falling with the other airlines and we have zero Asia exposure.

Southwest also went from $56 to $48 in a few days with no Asia exposure. Just the way things go sometimes

DrSteveBrule 02-26-2020 06:58 PM

because we go to the same airports and the fear of people getting sick in airports is real. People just dont wanna be in a tube with sick people. peoplen dont wanna open boxes with corona from china in them. people dont wanna have corona laced cruiseship buffet. SAVE may be headed for 28.


Im printing tendies.

Qotsaautopilot 02-26-2020 08:29 PM


Originally Posted by DrSteveBrule (Post 2984911)
because we go to the same airports and the fear of people getting sick in airports is real. People just dont wanna be in a tube with sick people. peoplen dont wanna open boxes with corona from china in them. people dont wanna have corona laced cruiseship buffet. SAVE may be headed for 28.


Im printing tendies.

have we seen a decrease in bookings I’m not aware of. Has the company released guidance to the public of corona related issues. I ask because the other airlines have. They fly to China and have stopped which has a real affect on income. So far seems like business as usual at spirit so the plummeting stock seems excessive.

gringo 02-26-2020 11:10 PM


Originally Posted by Qotsaautopilot (Post 2984945)
So far seems like business as usual at spirit so the plummeting stock seems excessive.

Meh. Par for the course.

Remember that earnings call where we missed by something like 0.00007% and the stock dropped some $13?

Good times.

Haters always gonna find a reason to hate, but soon all their base will belong to us so it won’t matter.

HODL.

Balker 02-27-2020 07:08 AM


Originally Posted by Qotsaautopilot (Post 2984945)
have we seen a decrease in bookings I’m not aware of. Has the company released guidance to the public of corona related issues. I ask because the other airlines have. They fly to China and have stopped which has a real affect on income. So far seems like business as usual at spirit so the plummeting stock seems excessive.

It will hit us. Panic it’s like a small fire inside a fireworks’s warehouse. There’s a good change corona virus fears will extended into late spring, which would take a severe hit on the summer leisure travel season, our bread and butter.
I want to stay optimistic, but I don’t think this will be a good year for us.

DrDHD 02-27-2020 08:10 AM

Spirit Has Virus Protection -- Market Talk
11:20 AM ET 2/6/20 | Dow Jones Related Quotes 12:08 PM ET 2/27/20 Symbol Last % Chg SAVE 31.82 -3.34% Real time quote.

11:20 ET - Spirit Airlines CEO Ted Christie says coronavirus isn't hurting demand, but the airline has contingency plans should there be any domestic outbreak. Spirit has 27 "unencumbered" jets, which are easier to park without seeking backing from lenders, and it's leisure-focused network can be rejigged faster than network carriers more reliant on business passengers. The biggest current headwind is potential Airbus jet delivery delays in 2021. ([email protected]; [MENTION=27313]Doug[/MENTION]cameron)

from the conference call 2/6

badtransam97 02-27-2020 08:57 AM

So I’m curious how this will affect hiring plans(65/mo) and growth? I would assume one could plan on RSV times getting much longer for a new hire as well?

Qotsaautopilot 02-27-2020 09:02 AM

Jetblue waiving change fees over corona is going to spread panic. No Asia flights and they pull this ****

Excargodog 02-27-2020 09:04 AM


Originally Posted by Qotsaautopilot (Post 2984899)
How about spirit specifically? We are falling with the other airlines and we have zero Asia exposure.

Caribbean and Central America exposure. Short term it may get worse but 18 months out it will all be over. Nobody does well at guessing the bottom. If you are a buy and hold person it’s probably time to start dollar cost average buying.

Qotsaautopilot 02-27-2020 09:14 AM


Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 2985186)
Caribbean and Central America exposure. Short term it may get worse but 18 months out it will all be over. Nobody does well at guessing the bottom. If you are a buy and hold person it’s probably time to start dollar cost average buying.

is it in Latin America now? I haven’t been keeping up. I know it’s a number of countries but I’ve mostly been hearing Asia and Italy

I’ve been cost averaging until we started our slow climb back into the 40s. Problem is now I’m more overweighted to spirit so I’m having trouble rationalizing putting more money in now. I’m long on the company but this isn’t my 401k so my horizon isn’t far out. Probably won’t need the money near term but you never know

anyone remember the market history on SARS. How far was the fall on the market and how long was the recover to get even?

Excargodog 02-27-2020 02:05 PM

Here are the numbers, according to CNBC and Goldman Sachs analysis:
  • There have been 26 market corrections (not including Thursday) since World War II with an average decline of 13.7% over an average of four months.
  • Recoveries have taken four months on average.
  • The most recent corrections occurred from September 2018 to December 2018. The S&P 500 bounced into and out of correction throughout the autumn of 2018 before plunging into a bear market (a 20% decline from its all-time high) on Christmas Eve.
  • There have been 12 bear markets since World War II with an average decline of 32.5% as measured on a close-to-close basis.
  • The most recent was October 2007 to March 2009, when the market dropped 57% and then took more than four years to recover. The S&P 500 closed in a bear market in December 2018 using intraday data.
  • Bear markets have lasted 14.5 months on average and have taken two years to recover on average.
— CNBC’s Nate Rattner contributed reporting.

DrSteveBrule 02-27-2020 02:32 PM

My 30p are printin. tomorrow's my get out day and gonna go blow it all on casino stuff. Im super pumped for the buying opportunities ahead but cash for now. MSFT not gonna be 157.00 forever. Im betting one year 190c. That said, some analysts believe transports could have another 15 to 20% to the downside.

Balker 02-27-2020 08:33 PM


Originally Posted by badtransam97 (Post 2985183)
So I’m curious how this will affect hiring plans(65/mo) and growth? I would assume one could plan on RSV times getting much longer for a new hire as well?

Impossible to predict. We might be walking on the edge here. This could flatten out our growth plans for this year, or God forbid, reverse them.

SSlow 02-27-2020 08:47 PM


Originally Posted by Balker (Post 2985671)
Impossible to predict. We might be walking on the edge here. This could flatten out our growth plans for this year, or God forbid, reverse them.

Spirit is fairly safe. Most people will fly on the cheap before they stop flying at all...

telejet 02-28-2020 04:38 AM


Originally Posted by SSlow (Post 2985673)
Spirit is fairly safe. Most people will fly on the cheap before they stop flying at all...

Until the fear of the coronavirus gets worse, leading to people not wanting to be stuck in a tube for hours. Or if they can’t contain it and shut down airports nationwide.

Balker 02-28-2020 05:19 AM


Originally Posted by SSlow (Post 2985673)
Spirit is fairly safe. Most people will fly on the cheap before they stop flying at all...

Nothing to do with fare prices

DrDHD 02-28-2020 06:22 AM


Originally Posted by Balker (Post 2985766)
Nothing to do with fare prices

true....if people refuse to fly prices don’t matter

godsgift2aviatn 02-28-2020 06:29 AM

Spirit is getting hurt because mainline carriers are redeploying Widebody lift from China to high capacity leisure destinations, many of which Spirit serves, creating a capacity glut that may hurt it's margins.

gringo 02-28-2020 06:57 AM


Originally Posted by Qotsaautopilot (Post 2985190)
is it in Latin America now? I haven’t been keeping up.

It’s been confirmed in São Paulo.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews...cases-69267680

Judge Smails 02-28-2020 08:04 AM


Originally Posted by godsgift2aviatn (Post 2985812)
Spirit is getting hurt because mainline carriers are redeploying Widebody lift from China to high capacity leisure destinations, many of which Spirit serves, creating a capacity glut that may hurt it's margins.


I doubt Delta is running 777's from FLL to PIT.


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