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-   -   Save stock down way more than competitors? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/spirit/128171-save-stock-down-way-more-than-competitors.html)

FNGFO 03-19-2020 11:13 AM

[QUOTE=flyingpuma1;3003813]

Originally Posted by FNGFO (Post 3003650)


They did after 9/11, and they will again. Sure, I hope I’m wrong because I’d still like to have a job, but I’ve been around long enough that I’m not optimistic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Different situation. Several airlines then were already on life support and sucking wind before 9/11. Virtually all except perhaps AA were on very sound financial footing when this broke out.

I’d save that angst for mergers and consolidation post Corona if the demand takes a couple of years to come back up to sustainable levels.

5and20 03-19-2020 11:17 AM

[QUOTE=flyingpuma1;3003813]

Originally Posted by FNGFO (Post 3003650)


They did after 9/11, and they will again. Sure, I hope I’m wrong because I’d still like to have a job, but I’ve been around long enough that I’m not optimistic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Spirit will get money. The money will be divided by each airlines market share. Now whether you keep your job will probably depend on where you sit on the seniority list

Poppachubby 03-19-2020 11:24 AM

[QUOTE=As Briefed;3003649]

Originally Posted by WHACKMASTER (Post 3003633)

why?
how many of your routes are unique?

What is your point?

WHACKMASTER 03-19-2020 12:13 PM

[QUOTE=flyingpuma1;3003813]

Originally Posted by FNGFO (Post 3003650)


They did after 9/11, and they will again. Sure, I hope I’m wrong because I’d still like to have a job, but I’ve been around long enough that I’m not optimistic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You guys keeping the wrong people.

MtnPeakCruiser 03-19-2020 01:42 PM

If Frontier and Spirit survive this, I believe our arranged marriage may be coming sooner than any of us would have predicted a month ago. That’s given our strong individual organic growth, and impeccable choice of single type fleet.

CAirBear 03-19-2020 04:15 PM

The Current $1 Trillion proposal has around $200 Billon designated for Airlines.

Trowserchilli 03-19-2020 05:08 PM


Originally Posted by MtnPeakCruiser (Post 3004299)
If Frontier and Spirit survive this, I believe our arranged marriage may be coming sooner than any of us would have predicted a month ago. That’s given our strong individual organic growth, and impeccable choice of single type fleet.

They’re two of the best positioned to survive this. Both creations of the same brain child, Franke.

onedolla 03-19-2020 05:11 PM


Originally Posted by Trowserchilli (Post 3004534)
They’re two of the best positioned to survive this. Both creations of the same brain child, Franke.

I don’t think that’s how you use “brainchild” is it?

Skydreams14 03-19-2020 05:43 PM


Originally Posted by Trowserchilli (Post 3004534)
They’re two of the best positioned to survive this. Both creations of the same brain child, Franke.

I jumpseated on F9 and didnt sound like indigo will have the cash after this to buy anyone and F9 might have to do some cuts if it drags out. Im betting anyone with a government bail out wont be able to do any airline buying. Intrested to see if southwest takes one

FLYBOYMATTHEW 03-19-2020 07:38 PM


Originally Posted by Skydreams14 (Post 3004567)
I jumpseated on F9 and didnt sound like indigo will have the cash after this to buy anyone and F9 might have to do some cuts if it drags out. Im betting anyone with a government bail out wont be able to do any airline buying. Intrested to see if southwest takes one

And you learned this from jumpseating?

Halon1211 03-20-2020 03:45 AM


Originally Posted by FLYBOYMATTHEW (Post 3004693)
And you learned this from jumpseating?

I got my MBA whilst jumpseating.

WhiteMorpheus 03-20-2020 05:35 AM


Originally Posted by FLYBOYMATTHEW (Post 3004693)
And you learned this from jumpseating?

You don't put on a headset and talk to the rampers when you jumpseat?

RemoveB4flght 03-20-2020 06:47 AM

Had a three hour sit in BWI the other day and learned that while a bit under capitalized, SWA is very keen on mergers and acquisitions.

WHACKMASTER 03-20-2020 07:35 AM


Originally Posted by RemoveB4flght (Post 3004941)
Had a three hour sit in BWI the other day and learned that while a bit under capitalized, SWA is very keen on mergers and acquisitions.

Uh, according to who? A credible source or someone like you an I?

Stryker172 03-20-2020 08:52 AM

From what I've learned this far in my career it's that whatever a pilot says is likely to happen is exactly what will not happen.

SAABoroowski 03-20-2020 05:26 PM


Originally Posted by Skydreams14 (Post 3004567)
I jumpseated on F9 and didnt sound like indigo will have the cash after this to buy anyone and F9 might have to do some cuts if it drags out. Im betting anyone with a government bail out wont be able to do any airline buying. Intrested to see if southwest takes one

Are you kidding, ? INDIGO has plenty of cash, they would scare the F9 Pilots into concessions...

Qotsaautopilot 03-20-2020 05:29 PM

Yep. Private company with no public financials. Franke is the master puppeteer

singlepilot 03-20-2020 06:07 PM

Indigo Partners just sold their interest in Wizz back in February for roughly $650 million.
Plus roughly $780 million F9 has in cash,
and who knows how much Indigo has stashed under their mattress.
I’m not saying they will keep running F9 in the red indefinitely, who knows what they are thinking.
They are ruthless and greedy. They will do what makes them the most money. Mergers, buyouts, cut their losses and sell out, or shut down, who knows. All of those plus other options are all on the table I’m sure.
All they care about is the almighty dollar and acquiring more of it.

SAABoroowski 03-21-2020 04:06 AM


Originally Posted by singlepilot (Post 3005762)
Indigo Partners just sold their interest in Wizz back in February for roughly $650 million.
Plus roughly $780 million F9 has in cash,
and who knows how much Indigo has stashed under their mattress.
I’m not saying they will keep running F9 in the red indefinitely, who knows what they are thinking.
They are ruthless and greedy. They will do what makes them the most money. Mergers, buyouts, cut their losses and sell out, or shut down, who knows. All of those plus other options are all on the table I’m sure.
All they care about is the almighty dollar and acquiring more of it.


Which is exactly why I don't see them taking any Govt Money if it includes such things Executive compensation limits and clauses that state you can't sell or merge for five years etc..... (though I'm sure there is a lawyer somewhere that can get around that)

Spectre186 03-24-2020 06:28 AM

Who else is riding this SAVE rocket ship to the moon with me right now? Up nearly 40% this morning!

FlyGuy2002 03-24-2020 06:54 AM


Originally Posted by Spectre186 (Post 3009486)
Who else is riding this SAVE rocket ship to the moon with me right now? Up nearly 40% this morning!

I bought around $8.50. Not enough to really make huge amounts ... I didn’t have lots cash but I wanted to buy 1000/2000 shares , but I’ll take what I got

Halon1211 03-24-2020 07:25 AM


Originally Posted by Spectre186 (Post 3009486)
Who else is riding this SAVE rocket ship to the moon with me right now? Up nearly 40% this morning!

I knew I should of waited till it got lower. But it’s alright... If our stock will eventually go back up to around $40 then I’ll double my money.

NKSpilot 03-24-2020 07:38 AM

I guess you guys know some secret information that Bank of America doesn’t

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp...ies-2020-03-23

RemoveB4flght 03-24-2020 07:51 AM

If you bought at $9 and have made 40% today and don’t sell, well don’t cry when it drops again.

we have a lot of months of bad numbers ahead, so if you think this is the start of a march right back up to $40 then you have a roller coaster ahead.

40% is​​​​​ mammoth gain for any investment. ​Take the win, sell, and catch it on the rise again on the other side of this mess

FlyGuy2002 03-24-2020 07:53 AM

In this volatility nobody knows the future , myself and Bank of America included. It’s a calculated risk. I believe more pain is coming and this will take years to build back up . But I feel spirit is a well run company, with good financials and provides a service that will be around in the future. Warren buffet said , don’t buy a stock for 10 minutes that you aren’t prepared to hold for10 years. I’m willing to hold onto this for decade or longer, and if I were a betting man, this stock (and many many others) will be much higher in 10 years from now. Even if we get bought in the future I feel the purchase price will be higher . Investing is risky and personal to everyone , but when good companies are in the 1/2 price aisle, I’ll go shopping. One mans opinion
https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...ative-to-peers

Qotsaautopilot 03-24-2020 08:12 AM

Get out now if you bought at the low. We will see new lows. This is just getting started.

Spectre186 03-24-2020 08:18 AM

I’m planning on selling after the stimulus plan gets approved, then buying back in when it inevitably drops again. I believe Spirit will be successful long term as long as they can survive this.

bottoms up 03-24-2020 08:31 AM


Originally Posted by FlyGuy2002 (Post 3009511)
I bought around $8.50. Not enough to really make huge amounts ... I didn’t have lots cash but I wanted to buy 1000/2000 shares , but I’ll take what I got

bought a pretty substantial amount at $7.50. Did the same with UAL at $18. I’m taking the long play approach so will revisit in a year or so. Really dumb luck as I had sold some electric car stock before this mess and the gains were burning a hole in my pocket. You know a fool and his money are soon parted...I saw this play out after 9-11 and am expecting something similar. I give terrible advice so don’t listen to me. I normally play the market the pilot way. Buy high and sell low. Don’t tell my wife

Balker 03-24-2020 08:50 AM


Originally Posted by RemoveB4flght (Post 3009574)
If you bought at $9 and have made 40% today and don’t sell, well don’t cry when it drops again.

we have a lot of months of bad numbers ahead, so if you think this is the start of a march right back up to $40 then you have a roller coaster ahead.

40% is​​​​​ mammoth gain for any investment. ​Take the win, sell, and catch it on the rise again on the other side of this mess

Exactly. Could be fun but one needs a rubber. Trailing stops are your best friends.

Silver02ex 03-24-2020 11:12 AM


Originally Posted by Spectre186 (Post 3009621)
I’m planning on selling after the stimulus plan gets approved, then buying back in when it inevitably drops again. I believe Spirit will be successful long term as long as they can survive this.

“It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em”

Spectre186 03-24-2020 11:40 AM


Originally Posted by Silver02ex (Post 3009891)
“It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em”

It is, but I’m only playing with money I can afford to lose. More than anything it’s giving me an exciting hobby to play with.

Halon1211 03-24-2020 02:26 PM

I didn’t realize Sun Country is doing cargo flights for Amazon. Maybe we could do Spirit Cargo in these trying times

“Less Passengers, more Cargo” ?

https://www.airliners.net/photo/Prim...BCF-WL/5940687

DrSteveBrule 03-24-2020 02:45 PM


Originally Posted by Spectre186 (Post 3009917)
It is, but I’m only playing with money I can afford to lose. More than anything it’s giving me an exciting hobby to play with.

Exactly. I made a butt load on save puts, rolled it into xlp calls and have damn near zeroed my account lol yolo

RemoveB4flght 03-24-2020 03:22 PM

My buy and holds are in my Roth IRA.

My ‘mentor’ I guess you could call him for investing always said “it’s not buy low/sell high, it’s buy high and sell higher!” Get in, see a few points gain, get back out and look for the next one. I don’t have a crystal ball and I’ve made a few mistakes, but overall I’m more up than down.

I remember a few years ago when crypto was the “thing” and out of boredom I decided to give it a shot. Turned 5k into 8k, took the white meat out bought a nice new set of scuba gear. Let the 5k ride a bit made another ~2ishk around the peak, got out totally and took a kick ass dive trip. One of my best friends who never played in the market got into crypto near the beginning and made almost a six figure profit. He refused to sell and rode it all the way back down to earth. To this day I’ll still randomly call him “bitcoin” to see what combination of expletives he comes up with.

SSlow 03-24-2020 05:03 PM


Originally Posted by RemoveB4flght (Post 3010215)
My buy and holds are in my Roth IRA.

My ‘mentor’ I guess you could call him for investing always said “it’s not buy low/sell high, it’s buy high and sell higher!” Get in, see a few points gain, get back out and look for the next one. I don’t have a crystal ball and I’ve made a few mistakes, but overall I’m more up than down.

I remember a few years ago when crypto was the “thing” and out of boredom I decided to give it a shot. Turned 5k into 8k, took the white meat out bought a nice new set of scuba gear. Let the 5k ride a bit made another ~2ishk around the peak, got out totally and took a kick ass dive trip. One of my best friends who never played in the market got into crypto near the beginning and made almost a six figure profit. He refused to sell and rode it all the way back down to earth. To this day I’ll still randomly call him “bitcoin” to see what combination of expletives he comes up with.

Good on you for timing the market correctly, but my experience has been quite the opposite. Last year when I was bored on reserve I thought I would get into day trading with some play money...and whew boy was it ugly. When I finally threw in the towel I was down like $2k or so, which was sad considering that even the village idiot could've turned a good profit in 2019 by just buying and holding pretty much anything. You live and learn...

So starting in 2020 I swore off day trading and decided to just buy and hold for awhile in hopes of turning a small profit...and you can probably guess how well that has turned out so far. I sold on the way down since I might be needing that money if this all keeps up. Safe to say that was my last foray into the stock market for now. I learned my lesson, and that is there are much better minds suited for this kind of stuff, and I am not one of them. I'll just settle for being the airplane driver.

Balker 03-24-2020 05:36 PM


Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3010137)
I didn’t realize Sun Country is doing cargo flights for Amazon. Maybe we could do Spirit Cargo in these trying times

“Less Passengers, more Cargo” ?

https://www.airliners.net/photo/Prim...BCF-WL/5940687

I’ve ran into some crafty pilots at spirit. Maybe we can get together and come up with a plan to cut a hole, install a cargo door and reinforce floors on our oldest airframes. 319s might be a little tricky considering how short they are, but I’m sure we can figure it out. As far as the STC goes, don’t worry, I’ll take care of it Boeing style....

a2cbus 03-24-2020 05:37 PM


Originally Posted by SSlow (Post 3010354)
Good on you for timing the market correctly, but my experience has been quite the opposite. Last year when I was bored on reserve I thought I would get into day trading with some play money...and whew boy was it ugly. When I finally threw in the towel I was down like $2k or so, which was sad considering that even the village idiot could've turned a good profit in 2019 by just buying and holding pretty much anything. You live and learn...

So starting in 2020 I swore off day trading and decided to just buy and hold for awhile in hopes of turning a small profit...and you can probably guess how well that has turned out so far. I sold on the way down since I might be needing that money if this all keeps up. Safe to say that was my last foray into the stock market for now. I learned my lesson, and that is there are much better minds suited for this kind of stuff, and I am not one of them. I'll just settle for being the airplane driver.

I feel like you are the first pilot ever to admit their loses. Like yourself, I’ll leave it to the pros.

SSlow 03-24-2020 05:50 PM


Originally Posted by a2cbus (Post 3010401)
I feel like you are the first pilot ever to admit their loses. Like yourself, I’ll leave it to the pros.

I always chuckle when I see the PCRA option to self manage my retirement fund. Hard pass, I'll leave that to the pros. I don't need my 401k looking like the opening scene of Saving Private Ryan.

SAABoroowski 03-24-2020 06:01 PM


Originally Posted by SSlow (Post 3010408)
I always chuckle when I see the PCRA option to self manage my retirement fund. Hard pass, I'll leave that to the pros. I don't need my 401k looking like the opening scene of Saving Private Ryan.

ehhh, you are wasting a lot of money by not doing that. Throughout the course of your working life the amount of fees you are paying really add up. You could do the PCRA and do a very simple Vanguard 3 fund portfolio........head on over to https://www.bogleheads.org/

RemoveB4flght 03-24-2020 06:08 PM


Originally Posted by SSlow (Post 3010354)
Good on you for timing the market correctly, but my experience has been quite the opposite. Last year when I was bored on reserve I thought I would get into day trading with some play money...and whew boy was it ugly. When I finally threw in the towel I was down like $2k or so, which was sad considering that even the village idiot could've turned a good profit in 2019 by just buying and holding pretty much anything. You live and learn....

Sorry to hear it man, I am by no means a market star or financial guru. When I say I’m more up than down it’s not to say I’m off to sail the Caribbean on a yacht any time soon. Day trading is definitely a grind, and I don’t have the tenacity to work the up and down ticks every day.

My point was that when you figure an historical average of 5-7% market return and you’ve hit 40% in a day, why not realize some of that good fortune. If the stock doubles again tomorrow so what, you still kicked butt.

It’s like if you play roulette and double your money on red five times in a row, some people can walk away feeling great, others think that if they took their chips down and red hits again, they actually lost.

Horses for courses and whatnot.


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