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-   -   Save stock down way more than competitors? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/spirit/128171-save-stock-down-way-more-than-competitors.html)

MCDUmanipulator 03-25-2020 11:48 AM

Anyone see the picture that shows spirit has the lowest cancellation % of any major airline in the world. Still don’t know if that’s good or bad.

anyone know what our breakeven load factor is with jet fuel $1 a gallon?

Qotsaautopilot 03-25-2020 12:06 PM


Originally Posted by MCDUmanipulator (Post 3011457)
Anyone see the picture that shows spirit has the lowest cancellation % of any major airline in the world. Still don’t know if that’s good or bad.

anyone know what our breakeven load factor is with jet fuel $1 a gallon?

kind of depends on the average ticket price and average ancillary revenue from those passengers. Prices are much lower now and the grants/loans to the industry will give others the ability to match or beat us on price I’m sure.

Broxis 03-26-2020 05:12 AM

Some news just came out that unemployment applications are now at 3.28million, and you would have to be crazy to think it wont go higher than that. Recession/depression seems all but certain now.

Seems quite likely that cheap tickets are going to be all that matters when this thing passes over us. People wont have as much spending money to pay an extra $100 for 2 inches of leg room.

Still waiting to see what these grants/loans look like. I dont think struggling companies can afford to match us for too long if depression drags on. Its not cheap.

CAirBear 03-26-2020 06:34 AM


Originally Posted by Broxis (Post 3012243)
Some news just came out that unemployment applications are now at 3.28million, and you would have to be crazy to think it wont go higher than that. Recession/depression seems all but certain now.

Seems quite likely that cheap tickets are going to be all that matters when this thing passes over us. People wont have as much spending money to pay an extra $100 for 2 inches of leg room.

Still waiting to see what these grants/loans look like. I dont think struggling companies can afford to match us for too long if depression drags on. Its not cheap.

I would assume a lot of these claims are people working in service industry (bars restaurants etc). Barring the restaurant or bars not opening up again after this, which most should open up again, most of these people will be employed again at that time I suspect.

I have friends in both SI and corporate 9-5ers. No one I know, personally, in the Corp 9-5 world is in any jeopardy at all of losing their jobs. It’s business as usual just at home on their laptops now.

If this bill works as advertised then a lot of these smaller restaurants and businesses will be able to stay afloat.

I know my hometown has had a ton of local support for our small local restaurants as they have gone to takeout. They will definitely be employing their old wait staff when this is over. It’s been great to see and be a part of.

spirited 03-26-2020 06:56 AM


Originally Posted by CAirBear (Post 3012381)
I know my hometown has had a ton of local support for our small local restaurants as they have gone to takeout. They will definitely be employing their old wait staff when this is over. It’s been great to see and be a part of.

While I am a big fan of shopping local - Eating out or takeout seems an unnecessary risk if you haven't already had the Corona. No assurances against contamination. If it is food that can be reheated to kill virus - sure - failing that? Not for me.

Qotsaautopilot 03-26-2020 07:07 AM


Originally Posted by spirited (Post 3012411)
While I am a big fan of shopping local - Eating out or takeout seems an unnecessary risk if you haven't already had the Corona. No assurances against contamination. If it is food that can be reheated to kill virus - sure - failing that? Not for me.

thinking the same thing. Package covered in China virus. If you don’t pay online you pass your card back and forth. Merchant is wearing gloves but that protects them. They touch everyone’s card and their POS system with the same gloves. Same w TSA. I sani wipe my id as soon as they hand it back.

SeriousShirley 03-26-2020 07:42 AM


Originally Posted by spirited (Post 3012411)
While I am a big fan of shopping local - Eating out or takeout seems an unnecessary risk if you haven't already had the Corona. No assurances against contamination. If it is food that can be reheated to kill virus - sure - failing that? Not for me.

The recommendation is to transfer the food to your own dishes, throw out the delivery packaging, wash your hands, microwave the food for a few seconds even if already hot, then eat. Pay online if you can or wipe your card down after paying. It does sound like a hassle, but for some it’s worth it. Hopefully local businesses can stay afloat long enough.

flyboyike 03-26-2020 07:44 AM


Originally Posted by SeriousShirley (Post 3012502)
The recommendation is to transfer the food to your own dishes, throw out the delivery packaging, wash your hands, microwave the food for a few seconds even if already hot, then eat. Pay online if you can or wipe your card down after paying. It does sound like a hassle, but for some it’s worth it. Hopefully local businesses can stay afloat long enough.

Then don a space suit, walk around the house forty-two times reciting incantations.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

MCDUmanipulator 03-26-2020 08:51 AM


Originally Posted by flyboyike (Post 3012504)
Then don a space suit, walk around the house forty-two times reciting incantations.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

exactly! This isn’t like Ebola we’re dealing with or something.

Punkah Louvre 03-26-2020 09:19 AM


Originally Posted by MCDUmanipulator (Post 3012575)
exactly! This isn’t like Ebola we’re dealing with or something.

you're correct. its here. and you'll likely catch it...

Tjamaica 03-26-2020 09:21 AM

This article was published before the Bill passed but may give insight to where some money is going...

"The grant aid would be based on airlines’ salary and benefits in the second and third quarter of 2019. JPMorgan estimates that American Airlines would receive $6.3 billion; United, $5.7 billion; Delta, $5.6 billion; Southwest, $3.6 billion; Alaska, $1.15 billion; JetBlue, $1.15 billion; and Spirit, $440 million."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyb.../#65a9459e70ad

SAABoroowski 03-26-2020 09:26 AM


Originally Posted by Tjamaica (Post 3012614)
This article was published before the Bill passed but may give insight to where some money is going...

"The grant aid would be based on airlines’ salary and benefits in the second and third quarter of 2019. JPMorgan estimates that American Airlines would receive $6.3 billion; United, $5.7 billion; Delta, $5.6 billion; Southwest, $3.6 billion; Alaska, $1.15 billion; JetBlue, $1.15 billion; and Spirit, $440 million."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyb.../#65a9459e70ad

i think those numbers equate to 6 months of payroll for for Q something 2019

Tjamaica 03-26-2020 09:28 AM

The grant aid would be based on airlines’ salary and benefits in the second and third quarter of 2019. From the article...

MCDUmanipulator 03-26-2020 10:30 AM


Originally Posted by Punkah Louvre (Post 3012611)
you're correct. its here. and you'll likely catch it...

yup I fully expect to. And I fully expect to be just fine after it just like the large majority of people.

Qotsaautopilot 03-26-2020 12:55 PM


Originally Posted by MCDUmanipulator (Post 3012575)
exactly! This isn’t like Ebola we’re dealing with or something.

I’m not worried about me I’m worried about my elderly family members. For them it’s very risky

MCDUmanipulator 03-27-2020 03:12 AM


Originally Posted by IHATEPLANES (Post 3013429)
Maybe its because your airline is a ghetto gliding white flash caravan Smells like low tide on your taxi cabs.


you must live such a sad life to just get drunk and post on APC.

spirited 03-27-2020 04:03 AM


Originally Posted by MCDUmanipulator (Post 3013448)
you must live such a sad life to just get drunk and post on APC.

Well - he just hates planes. ;)

Halon1211 03-27-2020 05:49 AM

Just wondering who all bought it when SAVE was around $8? How is everyone doing? Did you cash out already and double your money? I’m holding on to mine longer.

and this was for yesterday since we are already back down to $14 currently.

Stryker172 03-27-2020 06:08 AM


Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3013588)
Just wondering who all bought it when SAVE was around $8? How is everyone doing? Did you cash out already and double your money? I’m holding on to mine longer.

and this was for yesterday since we are already back down to $14 currently.

I bought at 10 and sold at 18. Not bad for a weeks work.

gringo 03-27-2020 11:27 AM


Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3013588)
Just wondering who all bought it when SAVE was around $8? How is everyone doing? Did you cash out already and double your money? I’m holding on to mine longer.

and this was for yesterday since we are already back down to $14 currently.

Do I hold and watch it go down, or sell and watch the stock go up?

🤔

Stryker172 03-27-2020 02:21 PM


Originally Posted by gringo (Post 3013974)
Do I hold and watch it go down, or sell and watch the stock go up?

🤔

Hold. I wanna some more.

ridinhigh 03-29-2020 08:09 PM


Originally Posted by gringo (Post 3013974)
Do I hold and watch it go down, or sell and watch the stock go up?

🤔


Sold to watch go down.
Will jump in again near the previous low. It’s coming. Crap news for ages.
For all airlines.

Halon1211 03-30-2020 02:25 AM

When the Coronavirus does eventually blow over do you think we will be back around $40/share, or do you all think it will take sometime afterwards to to get their because of the financial impact?

Stan446 03-30-2020 02:27 AM


Originally Posted by stevo22 (Post 2999870)
Any idea why our stock is down WAY more than competing airlines? Obviously everyone is taking a huge hit for the coronavirus, but why is Spirit doing the worst? I personally felt we were in a somewhat decent position comparatively to weather this storm.
I admit, I'm not the most savvy when it comes to anything Wall St. related, but this is a bit concerning, is it not?

In the past month, this is how aviation stocks have fared:

SAVE down 66%
DAL - 35%
LUV - 29%
ALGT - 32%
JBLU - 48%
AAL - 52%
HA - 50%
UAL - 48%
ALK - 42%

Because airline stock is a poor investment

stevo22 03-30-2020 05:42 AM

Management afraid of a hostile takeover?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp...ing-2020-03-30

FNGFO 03-30-2020 06:19 AM


Originally Posted by stevo22 (Post 3016936)
Management afraid of a hostile takeover?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp...ing-2020-03-30

I’m sure it’s on their minds. I think one investment group already acquired a good bit of United’s debt, and anyone forgoing the stimulus payout isn’t bound by the no M/A language contained within.

SAABoroowski 03-30-2020 06:26 AM


Originally Posted by FNGFO (Post 3016971)
I’m sure it’s on their minds. I think one investment group already acquired a good bit of United’s debt, and anyone forgoing the stimulus payout isn’t bound by the no M/A language contained within.

so I guess they don’t plan on taking the grant money

FNGFO 03-30-2020 06:56 AM


Originally Posted by SAABoroowski (Post 3016979)
so I guess they don’t plan on taking the grant money

That crossed my mind. We’re not in any position to purchase anyone else or a portion of anyone else. But there are investment groups positioned to do it, and I can think of at least one airline who can probably forgo the grants while keeping a predatory eye out for competitors and market share.

DrJekyll MrHyde 03-30-2020 09:22 AM


Originally Posted by FNGFO (Post 3016971)
I’m sure it’s on their minds. I think one investment group already acquired a good bit of United’s debt, and anyone forgoing the stimulus payout isn’t bound by the no M/A language contained within.

I literally just did a word search on 883 page document. Nowhere in the Stimulus Bill does the word “merger” appear. “Acquisition” appears 11 times and it is only in reference to “the acquisition of warrants, stock options, common or preferred stock” of one’s own company.

From what I have searched (the whole document), taking grant money or loans does NOT preclude airlines from mergers or acquisitions according to the Bill.

The timeline for our arranged marriage may have been pushed up. Only a handful of people know.

FNGFO 03-30-2020 09:40 AM


Originally Posted by DrJekyll MrHyde (Post 3017218)
I literally just did a word search on 883 page document. Nowhere in the Stimulus Bill does the word “merger” appear. “Acquisition” appears 11 times and it is only in reference to “the acquisition of warrants, stock options, common or preferred stock” of one’s own company.

From what I have searched (the whole document), taking grant money or loans does NOT preclude airlines from mergers or acquisitions according to the Bill.

The timeline for our arranged marriage may have been pushed up. Only a handful of people know.

Thanks for that, and I actually wasn’t referring to Frontier. We don’t know how healthy or willing Indigo is to weather this while seeking partners. Franke seems willing though.

SAABoroowski 03-30-2020 09:41 AM


Originally Posted by DrJekyll MrHyde (Post 3017218)
I literally just did a word search on 883 page document. Nowhere in the Stimulus Bill does the word “merger” appear. “Acquisition” appears 11 times and it is only in reference to “the acquisition of warrants, stock options, common or preferred stock” of one’s own company.

From what I have searched (the whole document), taking grant money or loans does NOT preclude airlines from mergers or acquisitions according to the Bill.

The timeline for our arranged marriage may have been pushed up. Only a handful of people know.

hopefully that’s like Tom Hanks/Rita Wilson marriage F9/NK and not an OJ SIMPSON Type marriage......where SWA is OJ and we’re Nicole......

FNGFO 03-30-2020 09:47 AM


Originally Posted by SAABoroowski (Post 3017242)
hopefully that’s like Tom Hanks/Rita Wilson marriage F9/NK and not an OJ SIMPSON Type marriage......where SWA is OJ and we’re Nicole......

I’m afraid it might be a situation where SWA catches NK and F9 courting each other and steps in like OJ.

SAABoroowski 03-30-2020 09:55 AM


Originally Posted by FNGFO (Post 3017249)
I’m afraid it might be a situation where SWA catches NK and F9 courting each other and steps in like OJ.

yeah I’m sure that’s exactly what will happen

DrJekyll MrHyde 03-30-2020 10:00 AM


Originally Posted by FNGFO (Post 3017240)
Thanks for that, and I actually wasn’t referring to Frontier. We don’t know how healthy or willing Indigo is to weather this while seeking partners. Franke seems willing though.

No misunderstanding here, I didn’t take that as you specifically referring to F9. I was just pointing to the possibility that many have pointed out for a long time may actually be coming under an expedited timetable. Our excuses (pre-COVID19) for why it wasn’t going to happen in the near term, like “organic growth” and such, seem less valid now than they did 6 weeks ago.

Chief Brody 03-30-2020 10:14 AM


Originally Posted by SAABoroowski (Post 3017242)
hopefully that’s like Tom Hanks/Rita Wilson marriage F9/NK and not an OJ SIMPSON Type marriage......where SWA is OJ and we’re Nicole......

I was thinking more along the lines of Bill McKinney and Ned Beatty

torn 03-30-2020 10:58 AM

For the new guys on here, like myself, what happened when SWA bought Airtran? I hear it joked about, but wondering what the details were with pilots and equipment.

senecacaptain 03-30-2020 11:18 AM


Originally Posted by torn (Post 3017308)
For the new guys on here, like myself, what happened when SWA bought Airtran? I hear it joked about, but wondering what the details were with pilots and equipment.

AirTran was publicly traded company (stock market). As was SWA.

Frontier is privately owned. Sun Country also. It is yet to be seen if the "owners" (Private Equity companies) will cause a speed bump for bail-out money, funded by taxpayers.

flyingpuma1 03-30-2020 11:21 AM

Save stock down way more than competitors?
 
Swa buying us is the least of our problems right now. Right now no one has any extra money, though I would welcome swa buying us because I have more faith that I would have an airline to come back to then I do at Spirit right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

SAABoroowski 03-30-2020 11:59 AM


Originally Posted by flyingpuma1 (Post 3017333)
Swa buying us is the least of our problems right now. Right now no one has any extra money, though I would welcome swa buying us because I have more faith that I would have an airline to come back to then I do at Spirit right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


you’re not the only one......probably why our stock is the only one to consistently take a much harder hit than the rest.....

Chief Brody 03-30-2020 12:08 PM


Originally Posted by senecacaptain (Post 3017326)
AirTran was publicly traded company (stock market). As was SWA.

Frontier is privately owned. Sun Country also. It is yet to be seen if the "owners" (Private Equity companies) will cause a speed bump for bail-out money, funded by taxpayers.

Are you saying they should not receive an airline bailout because they are private equity held companies?
As a taxpayer and investor I would trust Indigo more with a return than any of the Big 3.
You need to educate yourself about the bailout funds. The grant is in lieu of unemployment claims. So either way "your" tax dollars and my tax dollars are gonna pay for this one way or another.


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