You have to keep in mind, for at least the next 6 months, our salaries are covered by the grants. So our break even point is considerably different between now and the fall.

I flew mid 90s and 80s to and from LAX last week. My Houston turns have been averaging 80s down and 50/60s back.

Some flights have had a decent amount of bags below. Not sure how many carry ons we had, but I’m sure a few of those as well.

With fuel this cheap, I honestly wouldn’t be shocked at all to have a fair amount of flights break even or lose minimal amount between now and the fall.

The longer this goes on, a lot, of people are going to start resuming their lives. I’ve seen it in my hometown. Roads far busier this week than 2 weeks ago. Target and stores far busier. Way more people out walking around.

The recent study of anti bodies that people already have is incredible. I’m absolutely convinced when this is all over, millions will have had it (and most never even knew it). Mass anti bodie testing will certainly help.

How on earth are you flying enough to have any personal data on this? I don't know anyone who's flying more than once or twice every 2 weeks tops, unless...bot

Twofold problem
 

It’s almost impossible to answer some key questions right now. How many people will want to fly? How soon? How many people will be afford it? What will the competition do, flood the market with overcapacity and operate at a loss? For how long? Which carriers will file for chap 11 and how soon?

My personal forecast:

Let’s assume that in QTR4 ‘20 everybody wants to fly again. No more covid19 fears. We’re ready to hit the road. I hardly think that 90% of the costumers that flew with us in ‘19 will be able to afford to do so. I’m giving it at least a 10-15% reduction in demand by QTR4 solely based on economic factors.

Now let’s play some what ifs with covid19 fears. Assuming we re-open the economy in June, we know for sure many costumers that could still afford to fly will certainly delay their leisure travel plans. Some will take some awesome $$$ deals maybe in late July/early August, although I think more than half of them will still cancel their travel plans for the remainder of the summer. Then, low season will arrive. Probably thanksgiving will bring some hope and some solid desire to fly again, but less people will be able to afford it.
Mixing these factors I’d say May and June will be bloody months, and July we’ll see the first signs of steady increase in demand. Being optimistic, I’d say demand will be back at 50% by July/August and maybe 70-85% by December.

For NK, as far as going back to pre-covid19 levels, I have my money on spring brake ‘21 but it could be easily pushed back to summer ‘21. Whatever happens to us next year will be greatly affected by how the rest of the airlines financially emerge from this. The big winners will be airlines that could rise cash to fuel swap. SWA it’s the one to watch. They entered this crisis in a great financial position and will benefit in renegotiating MAX deliveries. They’ll absolutely try to hedge as much fuel as possible. They could give hell to the rest of the industry in ‘21-‘22.

???

Im simply stating when I did my LAX turn last week I had mid 90s going down and mid 80s coming back. I have only flown one LAX turn, but that is the number of pax I had. I’ve heard similar numbers from the base chat for our LAX turns.

As for Houston, The rest of the month all I have done is IAH turns. I’ve done multiple turns and still have a few to go this month. So yeah considering I do this flight multiple times a week, I think I have a pretty good idea the number I’ve been taking. I’m actually going tonight. Come join us.

Spirit can charge $29.99 fee for a mask if you forgot it like your boarding pass. 😂

The fact that you're squeezing so much flying is impressive. Hats off to you.

Haha, thanks! Just got off first year pay so loading up when I can. Figured a month off with pay (TAJ) and then the ability to pick up on days off, won’t happen again anytime soon.

So true. Make what you can while you can.

q2-q3 2022....

Spring Brake? Spirit Airlines finest there. 😂