750 flights/day
 

Let's start a pool. What day will Spirit return to 750 flights/day? Post your guess and let's see how this post ages. I vote 11/19/20 with no scientific evidence.

The condiment is neither a condom nor a mint--- discuss.

May 1, 2021. If we're lucky.

04-14-2020

Since this summer got wasted and people couldn't travel, they will go the extra mile next summer, hopefully.

July 2020

back up above 70% in early June

I’m guessing we’ll be at 80-90% capacity by August 2020 but I don’t see us back to 100% until March 2021

Never.

we file Chapter 7 and the Smug Legacy Pilots (who would have failed but are too big) will say “told ya the ULCC Model wasnt good” while they themselves emerge from BK a 6th time........

butttt if we do survive my guess is May 2022

7/2/21.....

I’ll take a hit of whatever you’re smoking. Must be some good ****

Hopefully before I would get furloughed but realistically I’m thinking summer 2022.


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A Sun Sentinel article states 600 a day was Pre-COVID levels. https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronav...avu-story.html

This site says 116 parked. I think when we see planes get un-parked then hopefully things are turning around.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Spirit-Airlines

Ted said during the Town Hall that we were doing 700+ pre-COVID.

sounds good.

People are tired of being stuck at home and the longer this goes on the less scared people will be. The fact is, if you’re under age 50 and don’t have a preexisting condition, your chance of death is minuscule in the event you contract the virus. I’m betting that we still salvage something by the end of the summer. Plus, other airlines have already reported sales increasing for flights more than three months out, I would imagine our numbers are picking up as well.

I also had over 100 people on a flight just a few days ago, another good sign that not everyone has lost their minds over this.

Or a good sign that when you slash 95% of capacity and combine 10 flights into one, you still don't have a full plane.
Wild guess is May 2021, but I hope I'm wrong and it's much sooner.

What is the 750 flights number ? Was that how many flights you guys had per day before all the parked planes ?

if the orlando parks are closed those flights will be empty, last i read Disney is looking at Jan 2021 to reopen parks but hoping sooner

where did you read that? I saw a UBS report that was using that as a baseline but everything else I’ve seen (Disney Hotel Promos) are targeting June 1 But that realistically is probably too soon. Who knows


https://www.themeparktourist.com/new...ening-strategy

I hope it’s sooner than the end of September or the government handout/loan lasts.
I don’t think you are going to see pre-covid loads unfortunately. I think we are still going to see modifications in travel such as strong recommendations of leaving the center seat open, pax issues with other pax’s they suspect of being sick because they coughed. Our loads all depend on the markets we serve reopening. It definitely isn’t going to be a flip of a switch.

You do realize everything is canceled through the summer (concerts, sports, festivals, etc)? Corporate travel isn’t even looking at starting to book until Q4 this year. These are all the things that drive travel demand. Oh and by the way we are going to be approaching 20% unemployment in the next few months. I love optimism but we have to look at reality.

all pax and FAs should be required to wear a mask. This will cut down immensely on pax conflicts on board

from where to where. I am curious

This is a lose/ lose proposition. I understand the sentiment, but forcing masks will have the opposite effect.

There will be conflict regardless mask or no mask requirement.

If the mask worked, no one in Asia would ever become sick. They've been wearing them for years.

Plane Coffee

I had 119 and 83 respectively on an LAX turn recently.

SEA-LAS is booked 127 out of 145 tomorrow (Thursday). go to the employee travel and see for yourself.

Booked is one thing. How many show is another.

I had 182 booked to Los Angeles. A third no showed. About half no showed for the return trip.

Is NK being forced to refund that or issue a travel credit?

Also the yield is probably horrendous

Those numbers are adjusted as pax cancels or get rebook. So if 10 pax cancels now (for tomorrow’s fight), that number would drop. Which tells me, if it’s booked to 127, those people either want to go or didn’t want to or can’t cancel / rebook.

That Senecacaptain fellow who constantly throws shade on the LCC model posted this gem. I’m sure blocking the middle seat won’t hurt the legacies, lol



https://paxex.aero/2020/04/lcc-colla...stancing-iata/

Sir, I am just posting articles about impact to the industry. Nothing against any particular model or company.

My apologies

i don’t think 70% is anywhere near our break even point, and NK is probably one of the few airlines that could run 120 pax on a 320 and still at least tread water without increasing ticket prices.

We could probably do that or come close at 90-100 per 320 which is only 3 people in each row of six. That’s if previous break even load reports are accurate and our contract is indeed cost neutral.

You have to keep in mind, for at least the next 6 months, our salaries are covered by the grants. So our break even point is considerably different between now and the fall.

I flew mid 90s and 80s to and from LAX last week. My Houston turns have been averaging 80s down and 50/60s back.

Some flights have had a decent amount of bags below. Not sure how many carry ons we had, but I’m sure a few of those as well.

With fuel this cheap, I honestly wouldn’t be shocked at all to have a fair amount of flights break even or lose minimal amount between now and the fall.

The longer this goes on, a lot, of people are going to start resuming their lives. I’ve seen it in my hometown. Roads far busier this week than 2 weeks ago. Target and stores far busier. Way more people out walking around.

The recent study of anti bodies that people already have is incredible. I’m absolutely convinced when this is all over, millions will have had it (and most never even knew it). Mass anti bodie testing will certainly help.

How on earth are you flying enough to have any personal data on this? I don't know anyone who's flying more than once or twice every 2 weeks tops, unless...bot

Twofold problem
 

It’s almost impossible to answer some key questions right now. How many people will want to fly? How soon? How many people will be afford it? What will the competition do, flood the market with overcapacity and operate at a loss? For how long? Which carriers will file for chap 11 and how soon?

My personal forecast:

Let’s assume that in QTR4 ‘20 everybody wants to fly again. No more covid19 fears. We’re ready to hit the road. I hardly think that 90% of the costumers that flew with us in ‘19 will be able to afford to do so. I’m giving it at least a 10-15% reduction in demand by QTR4 solely based on economic factors.

Now let’s play some what ifs with covid19 fears. Assuming we re-open the economy in June, we know for sure many costumers that could still afford to fly will certainly delay their leisure travel plans. Some will take some awesome $$$ deals maybe in late July/early August, although I think more than half of them will still cancel their travel plans for the remainder of the summer. Then, low season will arrive. Probably thanksgiving will bring some hope and some solid desire to fly again, but less people will be able to afford it.
Mixing these factors I’d say May and June will be bloody months, and July we’ll see the first signs of steady increase in demand. Being optimistic, I’d say demand will be back at 50% by July/August and maybe 70-85% by December.

For NK, as far as going back to pre-covid19 levels, I have my money on spring brake ‘21 but it could be easily pushed back to summer ‘21. Whatever happens to us next year will be greatly affected by how the rest of the airlines financially emerge from this. The big winners will be airlines that could rise cash to fuel swap. SWA it’s the one to watch. They entered this crisis in a great financial position and will benefit in renegotiating MAX deliveries. They’ll absolutely try to hedge as much fuel as possible. They could give hell to the rest of the industry in ‘21-‘22.

???

Im simply stating when I did my LAX turn last week I had mid 90s going down and mid 80s coming back. I have only flown one LAX turn, but that is the number of pax I had. I’ve heard similar numbers from the base chat for our LAX turns.

As for Houston, The rest of the month all I have done is IAH turns. I’ve done multiple turns and still have a few to go this month. So yeah considering I do this flight multiple times a week, I think I have a pretty good idea the number I’ve been taking. I’m actually going tonight. Come join us.

Spirit can charge $29.99 fee for a mask if you forgot it like your boarding pass. 😂

The fact that you're squeezing so much flying is impressive. Hats off to you.

Haha, thanks! Just got off first year pay so loading up when I can. Figured a month off with pay (TAJ) and then the ability to pick up on days off, won’t happen again anytime soon.

So true. Make what you can while you can.

q2-q3 2022....

Spring Brake? Spirit Airlines finest there. 😂