EIL/Unpaid Leave Extension????
 

I'm on EIL, and plan on taking the unpaid leave to complete the 15 months away plan. Looking at the projections for pax returning, it seems that there would be a possibility for NK to offer a continued "voluntary furlough" for an extended time. Any thoughts? I haven't flown since March so I admit my finger is not quite on the pulse of what is going on.

J

I think anything is possible at this point.


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Where are you seeing these projections at? Ultimately, no one has any clue. Like the morons that claim we won’t be pre-Covid until 2024 or 2030 or not until 55 years from now. 🙄

Heres what I know. Every holiday weekend has been bigger and better than the one before. July 4th we hit 760k. Labor Day weekend was nearly 1 million coming in at 980k pax.

A lot of people feared/expected that September (after Labor Day) everything was going to nose dive hard with school resuming and summer being over. That hasn’t happened.

We are still holding well into the 700ks on weekends and improving Tues/Weds and Sat numbers Week over Week.

I just read 22 states are seeing increases in cases now. Yet again, pax numbers aren’t decreasing. This is a good sign.

We just dropped a ton of flying out of FLL in IOT for October. Restarted multiple International flights. I don’t think they are adding this much back on a hope and prayer type strategy.

Given the trend, Thanksgiving/Xmas season will absolutely be well over 1mill pax a day during those weekends.

I have no idea what's going to happen after the EIL, but from the last P2P, VIL numbers will be much lower than before for November. I guess we'll find out in a couple of days.

Dang son, you're over there talking about who's gonna win the Heisman and we're still in the preseason :D

In all seriousness, I would be floored if EILs continued beyond the current projection. I'm even betting they ask people to come back early. Election season is almost over, a vaccine will be available at some point during that time frame, and unless they can conjure up something super scary, like COVID mutating into a zombie inducing hell where people die and start eating each other, then I think life will largely return back to normal by next spring/summer.

Hahah. I took another flying job, just trying to prognosticate. I sure hope it comes back sooner than later.


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doubt there will be any more eil. we are adding back a ton and have heard they will be asking pilots to come back early

I agree...email today from the scheduling committee confirmed that there is a "slight uptick in load" and they expect more hours for November. I hope they do ask guys to come back first of the year...better than the alternative when there most likely will be legacy carriers with guys on the street still.

I even heard we are going to start hiring again. You heard it here first!

It would definitely be great news if they started to offer early returns from EIL but I was kind of looking forward to 6-8 months in lineholder territory.

if we add flying back and recall/hire you will hold a line quickly anyway

And no VILs for November will be offered..all good news and probably shows that they might need pilots sooner vs later

I hope it's real. All I hear on the news is that cases are going to skyrocket starting next month. 23 states already increasing. I've never been a doom and gloom guy, but I think the economy is about to fall off a cliff. I think hospitals are going to fill up soon, election fraud allegations from both sides, the stock market shall react to all of this, I just don't see a short-term recovery. Maybe Spring next year. But until this vaccine is here, this might be a short-lived rebound like June or July was. I HOPE I AM WRONG!!! I so want to get back to normal life.

Gotta stop watching the news and look around.


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Take a breath. You were able to dodge a furlough; you’re playing with house money at this point. Enjoy the ride

Absolutely right. No complaints! Won’t be back for at least 8 months. Beyond thankful for how well mngnt and Union did putting this together.

As far as the outlook for the fall, I’m hoping it comes true, but we all saw what happened in June/July when bookings vaporized. Fingers crossed it all works out

they didnt though, our bookings were 1-2 weeke out, no one was buying tickets 3-4 months out so market planning was kinda lost.

Well call me crazy but bookings rose during those times because the media stopped non stop focus on Covid and spent the month on BLM and the George Floyd murder; and because our bookings have been close in, people took a moment to focus on other things and many traveled. Ted even mentioned something along these in an earnings call.

For the last few weeks the media has been trying to push the CDC report on people being exposed to Covid on planes (even though they say they can’t definitively say where the person contracted Covid) but that hasn’t stuck with the public and it seems numbers are still holding steady and increasing; enough that more block hours are coming.

My 2 cents is people are now at the acceptance phase of Covid, many have the belief a vaccine will be available to Americans soon enough, and many more are educating themselves about the low probability of complications of it. Not trying to downplay, but it does seem Covid fatigue has really set in for most Americans and we now accept it as just a part of life for the moment. We are fortunate that we live in a country where we don’t have to “accept” many risks when we wake up each morning.

Nonetheless, many are putting their big boy pants on, doing what they can to limit exposure with masks, trying to social distance when able, and starting to live a life again

Discontinue your sensible thinking immediately! Thank you. Sincerely, CDC


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Not to get off topic but it wasn’t a murder. See his autopsy report. Right then, carry on.....

Triggered much? I read the autopsy report(s). You can live in your world and I’ll live in mine. I’m not taking the bait and going down the political rabbit hole you’re attempting to get me to follow you down. I enjoy the FACT the Spirit forums stays pretty much politically free.

His username is pretty accurate. Lots of Whack going on inside that brain.

Haha. Pretty much. He just drops political crap all over the forums like a puppy who has the runs, crap everywhere he goes.

The political and Covid crap seems to have distracted him enough to allow us a break from his constant ravings on the SWA forum about how much better it ("it" meaning everything) was at AirTran.

I pity the poor saps that have to fly with him.

Tell him he's wrong. It was better at ValuJet.

wack job seems to live his life on these forums (where everyone else just checks in from time to time). Pretty pathetic I’d say. But I’m sure he’s a trusty news source....🙄

No trust, just a verified whack job that can’t get over the ValueJet / AirTran disaster that he thought was the cat’s ass of the industry. He’s still trying to figure out why there's more zeros on his paycheck and his QOL is better. He likes that battered wife I'm the victim syndrome. It's his mantra. That and not know jack about aerodynamics, at least in the vertical axis mode.

Valujet is still alive:

www.valujet.com

You got me. Lol

Chatted with one of the base CP this morning. Word is we are the leading airline in Load Factor.

That's awesome, but it doesn't mean we are making money.

0 cash burn is the goal way before making money

Ticket prices are in the dump for all airlines, so the fact we can still fill up planes, when airlines like AA are essentially giving seats away, is a good sign IMO; because even at $10 tickets, people are still flying us vs AA and the like. And when Spirit sells a $10 ticket and AA sells a $10 ticket to compete with NK, AA just loses more money on that ticket. No surprise their cash burn remains epic; while fortunately we have issued revised guidance that our burn will be on the “better end” of what was anticipated.

The ULCC model is why we came here. Yeah, they hired us, but many of us knew that this model would hold up better than most in tough time, and are these tough times.

Not to mention we can sell a $10 ticket and end up getting $85 out of it in bags, perks, profit on snacks, fees, etc. whereas AA and more importantly SWA only get $10 out of it.

there is no good airline news in 2020, but at least we are delicately trending in the right direction in terms of loads, reducing cash burn, and increasing capacity

And SWA still isn’t selling the middle seat....they say their passengers list that as one of the main reasons they are flying with SWA; however they just asked for immediate and quick concessions from labor groups or they will have to furlough. I personally would not be too thrilled with someone asking for concessions while they only sell 2/3 of their tickets.

unfortunately all of our boats float together. If bankruptcies start happening the pressure will be put on even at the non-bankrupt airlines.

the ink isn’t even dry on United’s trash deal and the other CEOs are already posturing. Evidenced by Gary Kelly’s comments. I guess the good news if you want to call it that is we are already the lowest paid...

dont you just love that in good times it’s impossible to negotiate mid cycle improvements but when times are tough the airlines immediately come to the employees with their hand out. So far I’ve been happy with how spirit is handling this disaster but I sleep with one eye open too.

please explain to me again why Spirit will feel the pressure to declare bankruptcy even if we are profitable again? This makes no sense

I sleep with both eyes closed and keep both eyes open when awake. You can fear the boogie man but remember anything given back mid cycle is a voluntary concession by the pilots. And as much as I was not happy with the UAL deal personally, the pilot group voted it in. And if they finally finish up some sort of second round of payroll protection, that deal goes away and they keep the small gains of the deal.

I am sorry but I dont agree with your "pressure will be put on the non pressure airlines." The MEC has already stated no concessions the last time the company mentioned the topic. And instead of entertaining concessions, they inked a deal to allow a lot of our pilots, including me, paid time off to spend my morning disagreeing with you on the forums, while being paid. Now if legacy carriers file BK, have CBAs renegotiated, in or out of the courts, will that effect our next section 6 talks, sure. The price/value of pilots changes, but the numbers in 2022/2023/2024 will need to support that claim.

Not pressure to file for bankruptcy if we are making money, but pressure put on pilot groups to avoid bankruptcy. If other airlines are going bankrupt it would certainly be amazing if we are in the black at the same time but that’s unlikely imo.

Have we forgotten the last 19years. We’ve all seen this before. Once concessions start happening in one place managements start applying pressure even if they don’t have a need to

Was Southwest not profitable when Delta, United and eventually the old AMR declared ch.11?? Different business models.... Back then, Southwest was actually low cost, and leisure oriented. Sound familiar?