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Originally Posted by NKSpilot
(Post 3355941)
Vanguard owning 9% of SAVE is not the same as SAVE being 9% of Vanguard's holdings
As far as your opinion on the affect of first year pay on attrition, I suppose we’ll just have to agree to differ. |
Originally Posted by NKSpilot
(Post 3355941)
Vanguard owning 9% of SAVE is not the same as SAVE being 9% of Vanguard's holdings
Let's look at one single Vanguard Fund - VTSAX As of September 30, 2021 VTSAX held 3,065,028 shares. (That's the quickest number I could find. Lazy googling.) VTSAX is an index fund, so it holds its shares by market cap weight passively, on autopilot based on something called the CRSP index. Based on today's stock price, those shares are worth about $71million. The total market cap of save is $2.4billion, so that means that one Vanguard index fund owns about 3% of the company. |
Originally Posted by Halon1211
(Post 3355868)
could be. But I did hear Bendo is making an appearance in BWI tomorrow at 9AM. The airport has him listed as giving a speech. Any ideas?
https://m.imgur.com/TVz8MyC Seems like a totally legit, not the least bit made up at all, headline from what I’m sure is a reputable news-like totally not a meme generating website. |
Originally Posted by TipTanks
(Post 3355970)
Exactly.
Let's look at one single Vanguard Fund - VTSAX As of September 30, 2021 VTSAX held 3,065,028 shares. (That's the quickest number I could find. Lazy googling.) VTSAX is an index fund, so it holds its shares by market cap weight passively, on autopilot based on something called the CRSP index. Based on today's stock price, those shares are worth about $71million. The total market cap of save is $2.4billion, so that means that one Vanguard index fund owns about 3% of the company. Principal Investment Strategies The Fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the CRSP US Total Market Index, which represents approximately 100% of the investable U.S. stock market and includes large-, mid-, small-, and micro-cap stocks regularly traded on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. The Fund invests by sampling the Index, meaning that it holds a broadly diversified collection of securities that, in the aggregate, approximates the full Index in terms of key characteristics. But none of that matters to the point I was making which is that with ~ 60% institutionally held AND a poison pill NK is an unlikely target for a hostile buy out. My other point, that we should treat our newbies better if we want to keep them you and I can still disagree about, but with even MESA giving their newbies a $20k bonus just for passing IOE, our first year remuneration is looking increasingly embarrassing. FUPME might be a mantra some believe appropriate directed at management, it shouldn’t be how we treat our junior pilots - not if we expect them to stay. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3356073)
First of all read the prospectus:
Even mighty Vanguard does not REALLY passively invest. If they did they would have a pro rata share of ALL companies based upon their market capitalization. They would have never acquired 3% (far less 9%) of SAVE without having a similar capitalization percentage of everyone else, which they obviously don’t. If they ever did set up a computer program to do that the small lot charges would eat them alive. They APPROXIMATE the CRSP by CHOOSING stocks that they believe represent asset classes. And that’s just the index funds. Most Vanguard funds ( not the biggest perhaps) are actively managed. But none of that matters to the point I was making which is that with ~ 60% institutionally held AND a poison pill NK is an unlikely target for a hostile buy out. My other point, that we should treat our newbies better if we want to keep them you and I can still disagree about, but with even MESA giving their newbies a $20k bonus just for passing IOE, our first year remuneration is looking increasingly embarrassing. Ummm...I don't think we actually disagree but...maybe? VTSAX absolutely holds all ~4000 companies on the CRSP index and they trade in those positions daily. They're not technically holding the "Total Stock Market" as the fund name implies, but that's because CRSP intentionally excludes some stuff. To be added to the CRSP index, a company must operate a for-profit U.S. business, have a stock-market value of at least $15 million, and at least 12.5% of its shares outstanding must trade publicly, among other criteria. CRSP adds and drops stocks every quarter, and reflects some big initial public offerings and secondary offerings in a matter of days. Additions to the CRSP index—and thus, to the Vanguard fund—can rock parts of the market. When 164 stocks were added to the index in mid-September, their combined trading volume that week doubled from the average of the prior four weeks, according to FactSet. And their prices jumped 3.6 percentage points more than comparable microcap stocks in the same five-week period." Apple is like 5% of net assets of VTSAX. The position in SAVE is probably 0.1% or less of the net assets of VTSAX. There was a great WSJ article (I pulled that quote about CRSP from it) called "The Mutual Fund That Ate Wall Street"....recommended read. |
Spirit’s FY21 / Q4 results to be announced February 9th. Legacies are still bleeding money right now, but Delta is on the path to profitability - United in trail, and AA … well, they lost just under $1 billion in the last 90 days.
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Originally Posted by Voski
(Post 3356642)
AA … well, they lost just under $1 billion in the last 90 days.
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3356073)
First of all read the prospectus:
Even mighty Vanguard does not REALLY passively invest. If they did they would have a pro rata share of ALL companies based upon their market capitalization. They would have never acquired 3% (far less 9%) of SAVE without having a similar capitalization percentage of everyone else, which they obviously don’t. If they ever did set up a computer program to do that the small lot charges would eat them alive. They APPROXIMATE the CRSP by CHOOSING stocks that they believe represent asset classes. And that’s just the index funds. Most Vanguard funds ( not the biggest perhaps) are actively managed. But none of that matters to the point I was making which is that with ~ 60% institutionally held AND a poison pill NK is an unlikely target for a hostile buy out. My other point, that we should treat our newbies better if we want to keep them you and I can still disagree about, but with even MESA giving their newbies a $20k bonus just for passing IOE, our first year remuneration is looking increasingly embarrassing. FUPME might be a mantra some believe appropriate directed at management, it shouldn’t be how we treat our junior pilots - not if we expect them to stay. |
https://www.barrons.com/articles/sou...?siteid=yhoof2
Southwest had a meltdown (I think I was before January 1st) and was still able to post a profit. Let’s hope Spirit can do the same. |
Originally Posted by Halon1211
(Post 3360867)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/sou...?siteid=yhoof2
Southwest had a meltdown (I think I was before January 1st) and was still able to post a profit. Let’s hope Spirit can do the same. |
Originally Posted by Tranquility
(Post 3361206)
No way we post a profit. I’ll bet my Miata on it…..:D
ZERO chance of a profit. ZERO |
Originally Posted by DrDHD
(Post 3361234)
when times were good pre Rona in 2019 we weren’t making investors profit forecasts and were falling short. In fact remember when old Ted admitted he pushed the operation too lean in July 2019 on the investor call. The stock fell 39 percent in a-month from 60 dollars. Your stock historic Stonk charts remember.
ZERO chance of a profit. |
Originally Posted by Tranquility
(Post 3361235)
So you’re saying I can’t ditch a piece of **** car??? :D
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Originally Posted by Tranquility
(Post 3361206)
No way we post a profit. I’ll bet my Miata on it…..:D
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https://www.yahoo.com/sports/bitcoin...172316133.html
There is a typo here...they meant to say airline pilots and not football players |
Originally Posted by DrDHD
(Post 3361234)
when times were good pre Rona in 2019 we weren’t making investors profit forecasts and were falling short. In fact remember when old Ted admitted he pushed the operation too lean in July 2019 on the investor call. The stock fell 39 percent in a-month from 60 dollars. Your stock historic Stonk charts remember.
ZERO chance of a profit. ZERO Results overshadowed by “the merger.” Insert shocked face |
I think this merger had to happen or it wouldn’t have. It may have been for survival of both sides.
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Originally Posted by dualinput
(Post 3369236)
I think this merger had to happen or it wouldn’t have. It may have been for survival of both sides.
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Originally Posted by DrDHD
(Post 3369252)
why spirit prints money!! Despite the losses!!! 😂😂😂
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Originally Posted by JulesWinfield
(Post 3369264)
The balance sheet is pretty healthy, all things considered. More cash on hand than current liabilities and they paid off a bunch of debt in Q3. 2021 revenue is back to 2018 levels and was nearly double 2020. I suspect we'll start making money again this quarter, but fuel prices are clearly killing us.
So you mean no more 19 dollar transcon fares? |
So what are you guys/gals going to do with your Spirit stock?
are you going to ride this wave going up and sell it? Or are you gonna let it convert to frontier stock? |
I'm going to hold it long term. It'll be converted to ULCC at a price premium but I will hold it for a long time
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Originally Posted by Aero1900
(Post 3369466)
I'm going to hold it long term. It'll be converted to ULCC at a price premium but I will hold it for a long time
No way of knowing what the price of ULCC will be on that day. And you’ll get a straight buy out in cash of $2.13 per share of However many shares of SAVE you owned. Im Hanging onto all my shares .. when the conversion happens I’ll have several thousand shares of ULCC. |
I was wondering when is that payout and stock conversion? When the merger closes later this year?
I'm hanging onto my SAVE shares. I got them when they were under $10 back in May 2020 when Spirit did the stock offering at $10. I don't see a reason to sell it right now? |
What’s the typical trajectory of airline stocks? Even held for another 10 years and 800 planes in the combined company where will it be? This may actually be a good exit for most IMO.
Spirit and Frontier stocks were always kind of like investing in a start up even though the companies themselves have been around for ages. Grow enough and cause enough irritation to the competition until you get acquired and cash out. It could be argued for an investor that there may be another step to that plan a few years from now but it seems to me for SAVE conversion to ULCC plus cash there really isn’t much more meat on the bone in the future for stock price at least. |
SAVE stock now needs a 100% gain to reach the value of the jetBlue offer. I wonder how shareholders feel about that.
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Give me my 33
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Originally Posted by dualinput
(Post 3369800)
What’s the typical trajectory of airline stocks? Even held for another 10 years and 800 planes in the combined company where will it be? This may actually be a good exit for most IMO.
Spirit and Frontier stocks were always kind of like investing in a start up even though the companies themselves have been around for ages. Grow enough and cause enough irritation to the competition until you get acquired and cash out. It could be argued for an investor that there may be another step to that plan a few years from now but it seems to me for SAVE conversion to ULCC plus cash there really isn’t much more meat on the bone in the future for stock price at least. |
Originally Posted by dualinput
(Post 3420875)
Give me my 33
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The stock just tanked 6% in the last 30 mins of trade on heavy volume. Maybe the deal fell apart? Seems like someone knows something.
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Originally Posted by panpanpan
(Post 3504467)
The stock just tanked 6% in the last 30 mins of trade on heavy volume. Maybe the deal fell apart? Seems like someone knows something.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/388765...vidend-payment Spirit Airlines (NYSE:SAVE) dropped 6% after a NYSE notice reportedly indicated that shareholders would have to be holders of record in order to get a $2.50/share special dividend associated with the company's planned sale to JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU). An NYSE notice today indicated that shareholders of record on Sept. 12 would be the only holders able to get a $2.50/share special dividend as part of the original agreement from late July, according to traders, who saw a copy of the NYSE notice that was circulating. JetBlue (JBLU) announced in late July that it agreed to acquire Spirit Airlines (SAVE) for $33.50/share in cash, including a prepayment of $2.50 per share in cash payable upon Spirit stockholders’ approval of the transaction. There was an expectation before the NYSE notice today that an individual didn't have to be a shareholder of record to get the $2.50/share dividend, according to traders. JetBlue (JBLU) and Spirit (SAVE) didn't immediately respond to Seeking Alpha request for comment. Earlier this month Spirit (SAVE) set its holder vote for its sale to JetBlue for Oct. 19. Earlier this month Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) requested that that the U.S. Department of Justice heavily scrutinize the airline deal and ultimately block the combination. |
This should not be a surprise. The stock market is really bizarre. |
Originally Posted by panpanpan
(Post 3504509)
This should not be a surprise. The stock market is really bizarre.
It's almost pricing like the deal won't go through, like twitter was. Then BAM! I wonder what will happen here. Personally in the camp of it gets approved. |
Originally Posted by ridinhigh
(Post 3510709)
It's almost pricing like the deal won't go through, like twitter was.
Then BAM! I wonder what will happen here. Personally in the camp of it gets approved. Kidding. Equities are kryptonite right now. |
Originally Posted by Cockpit997
(Post 3510728)
Buy the dip! 😂
Kidding. Equities are kryptonite right now. |
I like equities and when they are down is the time to buy them. And I’m genuinely impressed by how much NK has been able to increase their flying and revenue over 2019, BUT…
Buying stock in the company you work for voluntarily is a bad idea. UA pilots were REQUIRED to take some of their payment in UAL stock for a few years before UA’s last bankruptcy when it became worthless. Single point failure modes are risky. Too risky for this kid. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3510810)
Buying stock in the company you work for voluntarily is a bad idea. UA pilots were REQUIRED to take some of their payment in UAL stock for a few years before UA’s last bankruptcy when it became worthless.
Single point failure modes are risky. Too risky for this kid. Point of the story, I’m trading our company’s stock, however I never bought with the intention of it being a long term asset. Yes, you can buy your company’s stock…. |
Originally Posted by Tranquility
(Post 3510815)
It can be risky, if you don’t know what you’re doing and also don’t leverage your future to it. I started buying in early 2020 and sold half that June for a double. Playing with house money now until the JetBlue transaction closes at…. What was it, $33-something??
Point of the story, I’m trading our company’s stock, however I never bought with the intention of it being a long term asset. Yes, you can buy your company’s stock…. |
Originally Posted by Tranquility
(Post 3510815)
It can be risky, if you don’t know what you’re doing and also don’t leverage your future to it. I started buying in early 2020 and sold half that June for a double. Playing with house money now until the JetBlue transaction closes at…. What was it, $33-something??
Point of the story, I’m trading our company’s stock, however I never bought with the intention of it being a long term asset. Yes, you can buy your company’s stock…. it’s almost a double from here if it goes through. And if it doesn’t it’s like the rest of my crap kicking my nutz. Good luck! |
Originally Posted by Tranquility
(Post 3510760)
Buying equities now is like trying to catch a falling knife…. 1-2 year paper is yielding north of 4%, seems a good risk/reward to me now….
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