Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo (Post 3682630)

1) Why is there a recession coming? Hasn't that been the chicken little call the last few years?
2) If you think the "Big 3 locking in their contracts" means anything in a recession, you haven't been paying attention or were around in the years 2000-2012.

Sorry but history has shown over and over that whoever is on top today, is the first to be sent to the bottom tomorrow, there is no "future proofing". Welcome to the airlines, it isnt all what some have seen the last 5 years, there is an ugly side to it. Not trying to be nasty to you, but there are way too many pilots who think the last 5 years is the "norm" and are not ready to see what the airlines really are outside of this swan even we have seen the last 5 years.

Originally Posted by SoFloFlyer (Post 3682831)

The reality is, if there’s a recession so bad that would force furloughs at the big 3, NK/B6 probably gonna be hit even harder. The big 3 have massive retirements that will offset any necessary furloughs. NK/B6 doesn’t have that on deck.Go to whatever seems right in your gut. No way of knowing the right decision in the moment. You’ll know when you retire.

Originally Posted by RemoveB4flght (Post 3682918)

I love the hyperbole people regurgitate. If external economic circumstances serious enough to necessitate a 13-18,000 pilot airline to initiate a furlough, the fact that they have 300-500 retirements a year is going to safeguard junior pilots there.

Originally Posted by SoFloFlyer (Post 3682981)

Tell us some reasons you think we’re wrong with that synopsis. I’m open to a thoughtful discussion

Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo (Post 3683064)

Because the original point was not about furloughs, it was about contracts and the notion that the legacy carriers “recession proofed” themselves with their contracts; that is fantasy land. History shows time and time again that a legacy carrier will file BK in bad times to help reset labor wages. If the Union doesn’t agree to concessions, and 1113 can be filed to be forced to give deeper concessions. There is no “we got in before the industry took a dip, we good”. Anyone who thinks this has not been watching this program for long enough.


As far as retirements balancing out any possible furloughs, please remember the old line, “hire until you fire”.

Originally Posted by todd1200 (Post 3685768)

......... When things are good, at the legacies, they are really good, but when they’re bad, they can be really bad.

Of course, next time could be completely different. The first few pages of this thread prove how bad pilots can be at predicting the future.

Originally Posted by skitheline (Post 3689111)

Looks like Alaska rates will see a hike due to their step up clause. Looking forward to another survey so we can vote with up to date information.

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...-boosts-wages/

Originally Posted by Lincoln Osiris (Post 3689232)

How does their step up clause change the bar that had already been set before?