ULCC model in the USA weakening
08-11-2023 | 09:04 AM
#111
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,247
Likes: 257
There are a lot of different aspects to the problem.
One is that the pay difference between WBFO and NBCA is not that large and WBFO is a great life.
You guys also missed one important aspect of why there are unfilled CA vacancies at United. Things are moving very quickly there. Monthly vacancies. The current open vacancy bid has 200 CA vacancies. 119 CA vacancies on the current snapshot are unfilled ... there are more than a few last minute bids which will fill most of those unfilled vacancies. Many will hold off on bidding up when they can do it next month or a few months later and time their training dates to something that works for them.
But the two biggest reasons why United, Delta, and American have so many upgrades available are due to 1) retirements and 2) rapid growth. Neither of which are present a Spirit and Frontier.
In fact, I have posted in the past that once the majors are done picking regionals clean, they'll be hiring as many pilots as possible from the ULCCs. And for the ULCCs, that means they will have similar problems as regionals for lifers - the seniority list doesn't grow, very few retirements, and lifers stay stagnant or even lose relative seniority at their airline because all of the FOs are leaving for legacies.
Maybe B6 will solve this problem for NK pilots, but B6 is also losing pilots to the legacies.
This is the reverse of the 15 or so years after 9/11.
One is that the pay difference between WBFO and NBCA is not that large and WBFO is a great life.
You guys also missed one important aspect of why there are unfilled CA vacancies at United. Things are moving very quickly there. Monthly vacancies. The current open vacancy bid has 200 CA vacancies. 119 CA vacancies on the current snapshot are unfilled ... there are more than a few last minute bids which will fill most of those unfilled vacancies. Many will hold off on bidding up when they can do it next month or a few months later and time their training dates to something that works for them.
But the two biggest reasons why United, Delta, and American have so many upgrades available are due to 1) retirements and 2) rapid growth. Neither of which are present a Spirit and Frontier.
In fact, I have posted in the past that once the majors are done picking regionals clean, they'll be hiring as many pilots as possible from the ULCCs. And for the ULCCs, that means they will have similar problems as regionals for lifers - the seniority list doesn't grow, very few retirements, and lifers stay stagnant or even lose relative seniority at their airline because all of the FOs are leaving for legacies.
Maybe B6 will solve this problem for NK pilots, but B6 is also losing pilots to the legacies.
This is the reverse of the 15 or so years after 9/11.
Money is a lot, but it isn’t everything.
I can’t help but wonder what a year of seniority would go for if I could be auction d off in an open market.
08-11-2023 | 09:51 AM
#112
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
Not saying there aren’t reasons to go to the legacies but whatI AM saying is that being a DEC anywhere, be it regional or even a legacy, means you are going to be getting the $hitty end of the stick for a long time, because that’s simply the way the seniority system works. Which is why although the “second tier”, which today I would say includes NK, F9, WN, and AS, may be bleeding FOs to the legacies, is tempting for mostly only the very junior (and or younger) CAs to change carriers. Even with prompt upgrades.
Money is a lot, but it isn’t everything.
I can’t help but wonder what a year of seniority would go for if I could be auction d off in an open market.
Money is a lot, but it isn’t everything.
I can’t help but wonder what a year of seniority would go for if I could be auction d off in an open market.
UAL won't be doing traditional DEC.
And unless they start awarding CA at indoc (possible with the new contract, but I don't consider it probable), no one is being forced into NBCA. One can stay NB or WB FO for their entire career at UAL.
As far as junior CAs, I know UAL's starting to get not-so junior CAs from F9 and LUV. I'm sure there are even a few not-so-junior NK and B6 CAs going to legacies.
08-11-2023 | 10:20 AM
#113
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Joined: May 2023
Posts: 665
Likes: 48
I'm not even sure what you guys are debating (Excargodog and Andy). Of course it makes sense for a lot of new FO's at ULCC's to leave for legacies. It may make sense for some captains in certain circumstances to leave as well. Will the majority leave? No. Will guys who stay be the equivalent of "regional lifers" and experience no seniority growth? No. To think that someone will be stagnant at Spirit because FO's will continue to get scooped up at this rate is not looking at the big picture. This current hiring environment is a blip on the radar of a 30-year career. If he/she is young enough, he/she can ride an incredible wave when the 40 something's start retiring down the road.
The upcoming contract seems to open the door for DEC's or de facto DEC's where someone gets 100 hours on the line and then is awarded an upgrade. The general consensus seems to be that this will attract captains from WN, NK, F9, etc. who want to go to UA but don't want to give up their CA money. What I think is more likely to happen is you have a 2000 hour F9 FO with 1000 hours right seat in an airbus bid captain, get their 350 hours in a 737, and then upgrade with less than 2500 total time, minimal time in Boeing aircraft and less than a year on property. Unless those vacancies get filled soon, it's likely to happen.
The upcoming contract seems to open the door for DEC's or de facto DEC's where someone gets 100 hours on the line and then is awarded an upgrade. The general consensus seems to be that this will attract captains from WN, NK, F9, etc. who want to go to UA but don't want to give up their CA money. What I think is more likely to happen is you have a 2000 hour F9 FO with 1000 hours right seat in an airbus bid captain, get their 350 hours in a 737, and then upgrade with less than 2500 total time, minimal time in Boeing aircraft and less than a year on property. Unless those vacancies get filled soon, it's likely to happen.
08-11-2023 | 10:51 AM
#114
Almost there
Joined: Apr 2021
Posts: 2,010
Likes: 143
There are a lot of different aspects to the problem.
One is that the pay difference between WBFO and NBCA is not that large and WBFO is a great life.
You guys also missed one important aspect of why there are unfilled CA vacancies at United. Things are moving very quickly there. Monthly vacancies. The current open vacancy bid has 200 CA vacancies. 119 CA vacancies on the current snapshot are unfilled ... there are more than a few last minute bids which will fill most of those unfilled vacancies. Many will hold off on bidding up when they can do it next month or a few months later and time their training dates to something that works for them.
But the two biggest reasons why United, Delta, and American have so many upgrades available are due to 1) retirements and 2) rapid growth. Neither of which are present a Spirit and Frontier.
In fact, I have posted in the past that once the majors are done picking regionals clean, they'll be hiring as many pilots as possible from the ULCCs. And for the ULCCs, that means they will have similar problems as regionals for lifers - the seniority list doesn't grow, very few retirements, and lifers stay stagnant or even lose relative seniority at their airline because all of the FOs are leaving for legacies.
Maybe B6 will solve this problem for NK pilots, but B6 is also losing pilots to the legacies.
This is the reverse of the 15 or so years after 9/11.
One is that the pay difference between WBFO and NBCA is not that large and WBFO is a great life.
You guys also missed one important aspect of why there are unfilled CA vacancies at United. Things are moving very quickly there. Monthly vacancies. The current open vacancy bid has 200 CA vacancies. 119 CA vacancies on the current snapshot are unfilled ... there are more than a few last minute bids which will fill most of those unfilled vacancies. Many will hold off on bidding up when they can do it next month or a few months later and time their training dates to something that works for them.
But the two biggest reasons why United, Delta, and American have so many upgrades available are due to 1) retirements and 2) rapid growth. Neither of which are present a Spirit and Frontier.
In fact, I have posted in the past that once the majors are done picking regionals clean, they'll be hiring as many pilots as possible from the ULCCs. And for the ULCCs, that means they will have similar problems as regionals for lifers - the seniority list doesn't grow, very few retirements, and lifers stay stagnant or even lose relative seniority at their airline because all of the FOs are leaving for legacies.
Maybe B6 will solve this problem for NK pilots, but B6 is also losing pilots to the legacies.
This is the reverse of the 15 or so years after 9/11.
08-11-2023 | 10:58 AM
#115
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
That's like talking about growth at regionals a couple of years ago.
Net pilot growth for '22 and thus far in '23 for the LCC/ULCCs?
Hiring is not covering much more than attrition.
Given the large number of retirements and legacy growth over the next decade, this trend is not going to reverse any time soon.
I must say that it's very ironic to read that rapid upgrades are bad on the NK forum where there used to be rapid upgrades. Now? Not so much.
08-11-2023 | 11:49 AM
#117
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,247
Likes: 257
'
That's like talking about growth at regionals a couple of years ago.
Net pilot growth for '22 and thus far in '23 for the LCC/ULCCs?
Hiring is not covering much more than attrition.
Given the large number of retirements and legacy growth over the next decade, this trend is not going to reverse any time soon.
I must say that it's very ironic to read that rapid upgrades are bad on the NK forum where there used to be rapid upgrades. Now? Not so much.
That's like talking about growth at regionals a couple of years ago.
Net pilot growth for '22 and thus far in '23 for the LCC/ULCCs?
Hiring is not covering much more than attrition.
Given the large number of retirements and legacy growth over the next decade, this trend is not going to reverse any time soon.
I must say that it's very ironic to read that rapid upgrades are bad on the NK forum where there used to be rapid upgrades. Now? Not so much.
08-11-2023 | 07:50 PM
#118
Almost there
Joined: Apr 2021
Posts: 2,010
Likes: 143
'
That's like talking about growth at regionals a couple of years ago.
Net pilot growth for '22 and thus far in '23 for the LCC/ULCCs?
Hiring is not covering much more than attrition.
Given the large number of retirements and legacy growth over the next decade, this trend is not going to reverse any time soon.
I must say that it's very ironic to read that rapid upgrades are bad on the NK forum where there used to be rapid upgrades. Now? Not so much.
That's like talking about growth at regionals a couple of years ago.
Net pilot growth for '22 and thus far in '23 for the LCC/ULCCs?
Hiring is not covering much more than attrition.
Given the large number of retirements and legacy growth over the next decade, this trend is not going to reverse any time soon.
I must say that it's very ironic to read that rapid upgrades are bad on the NK forum where there used to be rapid upgrades. Now? Not so much.
Your legacy growth isn’t all you make it out to be. Yes United has a large order but 3/5 airframes are just replacing old birds. Age 67 is another wildcard.
08-12-2023 | 07:21 AM
#119
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
You need to find a new boogey man to scare your fellow NKers from applying to the legacies.
08-12-2023 | 07:52 AM
#120
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 339
Likes: 0
From: A320 For Your Health
You and guys like you have made that statement (economic downturn, furloughs, human sacrifice, cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria) claim all through this mass hiring spree at legacies over the last 5+ years. And that mass hiring at legacies is going to continue for another decade, with or without an economic downturn.
You need to find a new boogey man to scare your fellow NKers from applying to the legacies.
You need to find a new boogey man to scare your fellow NKers from applying to the legacies.
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