I would not want to be in charge of Manpower.

I still think the attrition will be disproportinately FOs. Ironically they had a headstart as many of them prob had their apps out before the merger denial/delay.

I don't know how the balance is right now between Caps and FOs, but if it was reasonably balanced previously then it will be out of balance shortly. As the Captain numbers will likely outsize the FO numbers by a larger and larger number in the short term, you will likely see a displacement of Captains before you would see any furlough. Then it comes down to how good they are at predicting how many Captains will actually leave. Since those that leave will only be giving 2 weeks notice, deciding how many to displace is going to be a wild arse guess that has to be done well before the company actually knows who is leaving. Then once you tell folks they are displaced, those that hadn't sent out their apps already will prob do so. That means that your training plan is going to be blown up multiple times.

I guess the good news is that the big 3 have been poaching Spirit folks for awhile, so they should have a good baseline of attrition to work from. Now they just need to figure out how many folks further up the seniority list have seen the light at the end of the tunnel and now believe it is in fact a train!

So, I would not want to be in charge of Manpower.

per the Town Hall and Investors call, no hiring and no upgrading for the rest of the year.

my guess is no furloughs either because I bet the company is thinking attrition will pick up with all the bad news.

They won't wait 8 months for 500 pilots to trickle out through attrition. The axe is coming

Looking at the latest fleet plan, and using 16 pilots/airframe, EOY 2024 we'll have 215 airframes which needs 3,400-3,500 pilots. EOY 2025 we'll need 3,700-3,800. Now, how many of those aircraft will actually be flying???

It’s February…. The axe should have already come. Why would they furlough before the spring break and summer time push? Just relax this is the airline industry welcome to not all sunshine and rainbows…

The only reason they haven't happened yet is because of the merger agreement. Ted and Joanna have hog tied each other with this deal. Double edged sword this agreement is. I'm relaxed though I could care less about furloughs. Like you said it's all Airline stuff

15 planes out of service at the lowest 40 at the highest, average of 27 they say

Id bet 500 will be gone by end of Q1

500-700

filler