LFG F9Nk
10-30-2024 | 05:05 PM
#157
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2014
Posts: 870
Likes: 25
Furloughs are horrible, selling aircraft bad, and kicking the 1B loan payment down the road is meh … the earnings are about to be conservatively -250M for the last quarter. When that drops it will be full on panic. They have announced all these cost saving moves prior to earnings to cushion the blow for the kitchen sink loss quarter when it is only the worst quarter so far. Max aircraft parked for engine issues peaks end of 24 and first quarter 25. Still looking at 350 days with engine off wing for repair with no spares. A merger or buyout would be a choreographed bankruptcy with an exit plan that included a merger after renegotiated debts.
10-30-2024 | 05:14 PM
#158
That/It/Thang
Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 3,463
Likes: 275
Furloughs are horrible, selling aircraft bad, and kicking the 1B loan payment down the road is meh … the earnings are about to be conservatively -250M for the last quarter. When that drops it will be full on panic. They have announced all these cost saving moves prior to earnings to cushion the blow for the kitchen sink loss quarter when it is only the worst quarter so far. Max aircraft parked for engine issues peaks end of 24 and first quarter 25. Still looking at 350 days with engine off wing for repair with no spares. A merger or buyout would be a choreographed bankruptcy with an exit plan that included a merger after renegotiated debts.
The company is in NO RUSH to get those planes back. They are getting a small amount of money from RTX for them being down, and they cant make money with them if they had them back tomorrow.
This just lines up for the prepackaged bankruptcy merger with Frontier
10-30-2024 | 06:46 PM
#159
Line Holder
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,226
Likes: 29
From: baller, shot caller
The earnings are actually a "beat" on revised estimaes, that guidance has already come out. Its a monster loss but better than previous estimates.
The company is in NO RUSH to get those planes back. They are getting a small amount of money from RTX for them being down, and they cant make money with them if they had them back tomorrow.
This just lines up for the prepackaged bankruptcy merger with Frontier
The company is in NO RUSH to get those planes back. They are getting a small amount of money from RTX for them being down, and they cant make money with them if they had them back tomorrow.
This just lines up for the prepackaged bankruptcy merger with Frontier
Having to leave and start over midcareer at the bottom of a huge legacy list would suck, but watching TC and Bendo eat crow would at least be somewhat satisfying on the way out.
10-30-2024 | 08:57 PM
#160
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 302
Likes: 8
I just realized I posted this totally in the wrong spot. I for some reason, thought I was posting it here, since this IS an F9NK thread. So here it goes, with some tweaks since a little Info has changed since posting this a couple of days ago.
This is just me being bored and looking at numbers. I’m sometimes truly this bored.
According to the FFTpilot page (numbers may not be entirely accurate but it’s what I have so they are what I’ll use) by end of 2024 frontier will have 159 airplanes and around 2100-2200 pilots on property. End of 2025, frontier will have 180 planes.
Spirit has about 192 airplanes end of year if you already calculate the 23 CEOS that are now sold and will be gone by early next year. Spirit takes delivery of an additional 5 airplanes in 2025, so end of 2025 spirit has 197 airplanes not counting neo problems. Spirit has 3251 active pilots on property and just announced a 330 furlough.
Spirit runs about 16 pilots per plane, not sure how many frontier runs but with current math I’d say maybe 14 or so per plane.
spirit / frontier combined has an active pilot list of about 5359 pilots.
at the end of 2025, spirit / frontier combined will have a fleet of about 377 airplanes.
377 airplanes at fifteen pilots per plane (average of F9 at 14 per plane and NK at 16 per plane is 5655 pilots. With a combined pilot list end of 2025 of 5359 pilots (not counting attrition or most recent furlough announcement).
Now, i know those numbers don’t take into consideration the grounded spirit airplanes. But it also doesn’t take into consideration the attrition that is about to really pick back up now that hiring is coming back some. I would guess the possibility would be at least 500 pilots between the two airlines minimum for 2025. So theoretically that would put the combined groups at about 4859 pilots more or less after a guesstimated attrition. The airplane number that spirit is grounding is a very fluid number and hard to determine what it wlll be from day to day.
if you take the worse case scenario numbers - frontiers 180 airplanes and if all airplanes spirit needs to ground are grounded by end of next year, that puts spirit at about 130 airplanes end of 2025. that’s 310 airplanes at 15 pilots per plane is 4650 pilots. But like I say, the groundings are very fluid and is hard to predict.
I know we have a LOT of more senior folks that will be leaving now that legacy hiring is ramping back up. It will certainly be interesting to see how things play out.
just the two cents from someone who has nothing better to do than to look at numbers and play with their iPhone calculator.
This is just me being bored and looking at numbers. I’m sometimes truly this bored.
According to the FFTpilot page (numbers may not be entirely accurate but it’s what I have so they are what I’ll use) by end of 2024 frontier will have 159 airplanes and around 2100-2200 pilots on property. End of 2025, frontier will have 180 planes.
Spirit has about 192 airplanes end of year if you already calculate the 23 CEOS that are now sold and will be gone by early next year. Spirit takes delivery of an additional 5 airplanes in 2025, so end of 2025 spirit has 197 airplanes not counting neo problems. Spirit has 3251 active pilots on property and just announced a 330 furlough.
Spirit runs about 16 pilots per plane, not sure how many frontier runs but with current math I’d say maybe 14 or so per plane.
spirit / frontier combined has an active pilot list of about 5359 pilots.
at the end of 2025, spirit / frontier combined will have a fleet of about 377 airplanes.
377 airplanes at fifteen pilots per plane (average of F9 at 14 per plane and NK at 16 per plane is 5655 pilots. With a combined pilot list end of 2025 of 5359 pilots (not counting attrition or most recent furlough announcement).
Now, i know those numbers don’t take into consideration the grounded spirit airplanes. But it also doesn’t take into consideration the attrition that is about to really pick back up now that hiring is coming back some. I would guess the possibility would be at least 500 pilots between the two airlines minimum for 2025. So theoretically that would put the combined groups at about 4859 pilots more or less after a guesstimated attrition. The airplane number that spirit is grounding is a very fluid number and hard to determine what it wlll be from day to day.
if you take the worse case scenario numbers - frontiers 180 airplanes and if all airplanes spirit needs to ground are grounded by end of next year, that puts spirit at about 130 airplanes end of 2025. that’s 310 airplanes at 15 pilots per plane is 4650 pilots. But like I say, the groundings are very fluid and is hard to predict.
I know we have a LOT of more senior folks that will be leaving now that legacy hiring is ramping back up. It will certainly be interesting to see how things play out.
just the two cents from someone who has nothing better to do than to look at numbers and play with their iPhone calculator.
