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Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R
(Post 3849022)
I just realized I posted this totally in the wrong spot. I for some reason, thought I was posting it here, since this IS an F9NK thread. So here it goes, with some tweaks since a little Info has changed since posting this a couple of days ago.
This is just me being bored and looking at numbers. I’m sometimes truly this bored. According to the FFTpilot page (numbers may not be entirely accurate but it’s what I have so they are what I’ll use) by end of 2024 frontier will have 159 airplanes and around 2100-2200 pilots on property. End of 2025, frontier will have 180 planes. Spirit has about 192 airplanes end of year if you already calculate the 23 CEOS that are now sold and will be gone by early next year. Spirit takes delivery of an additional 5 airplanes in 2025, so end of 2025 spirit has 197 airplanes not counting neo problems. Spirit has 3251 active pilots on property and just announced a 330 furlough. Spirit runs about 16 pilots per plane, not sure how many frontier runs but with current math I’d say maybe 14 or so per plane. spirit / frontier combined has an active pilot list of about 5359 pilots. at the end of 2025, spirit / frontier combined will have a fleet of about 377 airplanes. 377 airplanes at fifteen pilots per plane (average of F9 at 14 per plane and NK at 16 per plane is 5655 pilots. With a combined pilot list end of 2025 of 5359 pilots (not counting attrition or most recent furlough announcement). Now, i know those numbers don’t take into consideration the grounded spirit airplanes. But it also doesn’t take into consideration the attrition that is about to really pick back up now that hiring is coming back some. I would guess the possibility would be at least 500 pilots between the two airlines minimum for 2025. So theoretically that would put the combined groups at about 4859 pilots more or less after a guesstimated attrition. The airplane number that spirit is grounding is a very fluid number and hard to determine what it wlll be from day to day. if you take the worse case scenario numbers - frontiers 180 airplanes and if all airplanes spirit needs to ground are grounded by end of next year, that puts spirit at about 130 airplanes end of 2025. that’s 310 airplanes at 15 pilots per plane is 4650 pilots. But like I say, the groundings are very fluid and is hard to predict. I know we have a LOT of more senior folks that will be leaving now that legacy hiring is ramping back up. It will certainly be interesting to see how things play out. just the two cents from someone who has nothing better to do than to look at numbers and play with their iPhone calculator. I don’t know what the record speed is for two companies merging/being able to fly on each others metal but I assume at least two years. |
Originally Posted by Stayontarget
(Post 3849026)
I don’t know what the record speed is for two companies merging/being able to fly on each others metal but I assume at least two years.
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Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R
(Post 3849027)
That’s a damn good question. Which I have no idea the answer. I know they can file for emergency hearings and such to speed up the red tape process. But, especially with a prepackaged chapter 11 it that’s the way it goes, that will take a little time. Then after all has been approved, JCBA and sli. So yeah I could guess those would take a bit even with everything else expedited
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Originally Posted by Wk067781
(Post 3849056)
It'll go to Judge Young again, this one's for you Spirit customers!
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Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R
(Post 3849068)
I personally think Judge Young would let it pass. He specifically said he didn’t approve the case based off the specifics on what were brought to him. He definitely left the door open to way different evidence should it be brought back to him. All the same, I still think he’s an idiot
I think if he were to see it today, he would realize maybe NK isn’t as financially strong as he, the Feds, and Ted made it out to be. People forget that Ted went very easy on the “flailing firm” argument, where he should have made the case that without the merger, NK is going to fail. |
Originally Posted by Wk067781
(Post 3849056)
It'll go to Judge Young again, this one's for you Spirit customers!
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Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R
(Post 3849022)
I just realized I posted this totally in the wrong spot. I for some reason, thought I was posting it here, since this IS an F9NK thread. So here it goes, with some tweaks since a little Info has changed since posting this a couple of days ago.
This is just me being bored and looking at numbers. I’m sometimes truly this bored. According to the FFTpilot page (numbers may not be entirely accurate but it’s what I have so they are what I’ll use) by end of 2024 frontier will have 159 airplanes and around 2100-2200 pilots on property. End of 2025, frontier will have 180 planes. Spirit has about 192 airplanes end of year if you already calculate the 23 CEOS that are now sold and will be gone by early next year. Spirit takes delivery of an additional 5 airplanes in 2025, so end of 2025 spirit has 197 airplanes not counting neo problems. Spirit has 3251 active pilots on property and just announced a 330 furlough. Spirit runs about 16 pilots per plane, not sure how many frontier runs but with current math I’d say maybe 14 or so per plane. spirit / frontier combined has an active pilot list of about 5359 pilots. at the end of 2025, spirit / frontier combined will have a fleet of about 377 airplanes. 377 airplanes at fifteen pilots per plane (average of F9 at 14 per plane and NK at 16 per plane is 5655 pilots. With a combined pilot list end of 2025 of 5359 pilots (not counting attrition or most recent furlough announcement). Now, i know those numbers don’t take into consideration the grounded spirit airplanes. But it also doesn’t take into consideration the attrition that is about to really pick back up now that hiring is coming back some. I would guess the possibility would be at least 500 pilots between the two airlines minimum for 2025. So theoretically that would put the combined groups at about 4859 pilots more or less after a guesstimated attrition. The airplane number that spirit is grounding is a very fluid number and hard to determine what it wlll be from day to day. if you take the worse case scenario numbers - frontiers 180 airplanes and if all airplanes spirit needs to ground are grounded by end of next year, that puts spirit at about 130 airplanes end of 2025. that’s 310 airplanes at 15 pilots per plane is 4650 pilots. But like I say, the groundings are very fluid and is hard to predict. I know we have a LOT of more senior folks that will be leaving now that legacy hiring is ramping back up. It will certainly be interesting to see how things play out. just the two cents from someone who has nothing better to do than to look at numbers and play with their iPhone calculator. https://airlinegeeks.com/2024/10/30/...losses-mount/# |
Originally Posted by Wk067781
(Post 3849056)
It'll go to Judge Young again, this one's for you Spirit customers!
Also DOJ might not bother to file another lawsuit to block the merger, especially if they're unemployed which we'll know next week. |
Lets not act like JBs lawyers actually tried to defend the buy.
They wanted to put a stop to F9 and NK because if we merged, JB would be in serious trouble. |
Originally Posted by spooldup
(Post 3849113)
Lets not act like JBs lawyers actually tried to defend the buy.
They wanted to put a stop to F9 and NK because if we merged, JB would be in serious trouble. |
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