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Stayontarget 10-30-2024 10:12 PM


Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R (Post 3849022)
I just realized I posted this totally in the wrong spot. I for some reason, thought I was posting it here, since this IS an F9NK thread. So here it goes, with some tweaks since a little Info has changed since posting this a couple of days ago.

This is just me being bored and looking at numbers. I’m sometimes truly this bored.

According to the FFTpilot page (numbers may not be entirely accurate but it’s what I have so they are what I’ll use) by end of 2024 frontier will have 159 airplanes and around 2100-2200 pilots on property. End of 2025, frontier will have 180 planes.

Spirit has about 192 airplanes end of year if you already calculate the 23 CEOS that are now sold and will be gone by early next year. Spirit takes delivery of an additional 5 airplanes in 2025, so end of 2025 spirit has 197 airplanes not counting neo problems. Spirit has 3251 active pilots on property and just announced a 330 furlough.

Spirit runs about 16 pilots per plane, not sure how many frontier runs but with current math I’d say maybe 14 or so per plane.

spirit / frontier combined has an active pilot list of about 5359 pilots.

at the end of 2025, spirit / frontier combined will have a fleet of about 377 airplanes.

377 airplanes at fifteen pilots per plane (average of F9 at 14 per plane and NK at 16 per plane is 5655 pilots. With a combined pilot list end of 2025 of 5359 pilots (not counting attrition or most recent furlough announcement).

Now, i know those numbers don’t take into consideration the grounded spirit airplanes. But it also doesn’t take into consideration the attrition that is about to really pick back up now that hiring is coming back some. I would guess the possibility would be at least 500 pilots between the two airlines minimum for 2025. So theoretically that would put the combined groups at about 4859 pilots more or less after a guesstimated attrition. The airplane number that spirit is grounding is a very fluid number and hard to determine what it wlll be from day to day.

if you take the worse case scenario numbers - frontiers 180 airplanes and if all airplanes spirit needs to ground are grounded by end of next year, that puts spirit at about 130 airplanes end of 2025. that’s 310 airplanes at 15 pilots per plane is 4650 pilots. But like I say, the groundings are very fluid and is hard to predict.

I know we have a LOT of more senior folks that will be leaving now that legacy hiring is ramping back up. It will certainly be interesting to see how things play out.


just the two cents from someone who has nothing better to do than to look at numbers and play with their iPhone calculator.

All of the math checks out but each airline has to staff their own airline appropriately until they are to join. So Frontier has to hire to cover the growth and Spirit will have to furlough or have attrition for shrinkage until then. All still predicated on a large “IF” but I’m thinking the chances of a marriage are high.

I don’t know what the record speed is for two companies merging/being able to fly on each others metal but I assume at least two years.

Born2FlyAv8R 10-30-2024 11:16 PM


Originally Posted by Stayontarget (Post 3849026)
I don’t know what the record speed is for two companies merging/being able to fly on each others metal but I assume at least two years.

That’s a damn good question. Which I have no idea the answer. I know they can file for emergency hearings and such to speed up the red tape process. But, especially with a prepackaged chapter 11 it that’s the way it goes, that will take a little time. Then after all has been approved, JCBA and sli. So yeah I could guess those would take a bit even with everything else expedited

Wk067781 10-31-2024 04:59 AM


Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R (Post 3849027)
That’s a damn good question. Which I have no idea the answer. I know they can file for emergency hearings and such to speed up the red tape process. But, especially with a prepackaged chapter 11 it that’s the way it goes, that will take a little time. Then after all has been approved, JCBA and sli. So yeah I could guess those would take a bit even with everything else expedited

It'll go to Judge Young again, this one's for you Spirit customers!

Born2FlyAv8R 10-31-2024 05:37 AM


Originally Posted by Wk067781 (Post 3849056)
It'll go to Judge Young again, this one's for you Spirit customers!

I personally think Judge Young would let it pass. He specifically said he didn’t approve the case based off the specifics on what were brought to him. He definitely left the door open to way different evidence should it be brought back to him. All the same, I still think he’s an idiot

CincoDeMayo 10-31-2024 07:07 AM


Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R (Post 3849068)
I personally think Judge Young would let it pass. He specifically said he didn’t approve the case based off the specifics on what were brought to him. He definitely left the door open to way different evidence should it be brought back to him. All the same, I still think he’s an idiot

He made a bad decision based on idealistic fairy tale land where everyone gets what they want and money isn’t a reality.

I think if he were to see it today, he would realize maybe NK isn’t as financially strong as he, the Feds, and Ted made it out to be.

People forget that Ted went very easy on the “flailing firm” argument, where he should have made the case that without the merger, NK is going to fail.

colonials13 10-31-2024 07:13 AM


Originally Posted by Wk067781 (Post 3849056)
It'll go to Judge Young again, this one's for you Spirit customers!

Didn't he retire, since?

rickair7777 10-31-2024 07:16 AM


Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R (Post 3849022)
I just realized I posted this totally in the wrong spot. I for some reason, thought I was posting it here, since this IS an F9NK thread. So here it goes, with some tweaks since a little Info has changed since posting this a couple of days ago.

This is just me being bored and looking at numbers. I’m sometimes truly this bored.

According to the FFTpilot page (numbers may not be entirely accurate but it’s what I have so they are what I’ll use) by end of 2024 frontier will have 159 airplanes and around 2100-2200 pilots on property. End of 2025, frontier will have 180 planes.

Spirit has about 192 airplanes end of year if you already calculate the 23 CEOS that are now sold and will be gone by early next year. Spirit takes delivery of an additional 5 airplanes in 2025, so end of 2025 spirit has 197 airplanes not counting neo problems. Spirit has 3251 active pilots on property and just announced a 330 furlough.

Spirit runs about 16 pilots per plane, not sure how many frontier runs but with current math I’d say maybe 14 or so per plane.

spirit / frontier combined has an active pilot list of about 5359 pilots.

at the end of 2025, spirit / frontier combined will have a fleet of about 377 airplanes.

377 airplanes at fifteen pilots per plane (average of F9 at 14 per plane and NK at 16 per plane is 5655 pilots. With a combined pilot list end of 2025 of 5359 pilots (not counting attrition or most recent furlough announcement).

Now, i know those numbers don’t take into consideration the grounded spirit airplanes. But it also doesn’t take into consideration the attrition that is about to really pick back up now that hiring is coming back some. I would guess the possibility would be at least 500 pilots between the two airlines minimum for 2025. So theoretically that would put the combined groups at about 4859 pilots more or less after a guesstimated attrition. The airplane number that spirit is grounding is a very fluid number and hard to determine what it wlll be from day to day.

if you take the worse case scenario numbers - frontiers 180 airplanes and if all airplanes spirit needs to ground are grounded by end of next year, that puts spirit at about 130 airplanes end of 2025. that’s 310 airplanes at 15 pilots per plane is 4650 pilots. But like I say, the groundings are very fluid and is hard to predict.

I know we have a LOT of more senior folks that will be leaving now that legacy hiring is ramping back up. It will certainly be interesting to see how things play out.


just the two cents from someone who has nothing better to do than to look at numbers and play with their iPhone calculator.

Airlinegeeks is reporting another 300 NK furloughs, so your math checks.

https://airlinegeeks.com/2024/10/30/...losses-mount/#

rickair7777 10-31-2024 07:20 AM


Originally Posted by Wk067781 (Post 3849056)
It'll go to Judge Young again, this one's for you Spirit customers!

Are you sure a BK would go to that judge? I think those might be different courts?

Also DOJ might not bother to file another lawsuit to block the merger, especially if they're unemployed which we'll know next week.

spooldup 10-31-2024 08:05 AM

Lets not act like JBs lawyers actually tried to defend the buy.

They wanted to put a stop to F9 and NK because if we merged, JB would be in serious trouble.

fcoolaiddrinker 10-31-2024 08:30 AM


Originally Posted by spooldup (Post 3849113)
Lets not act like JBs lawyers actually tried to defend the buy.

They wanted to put a stop to F9 and NK because if we merged, JB would be in serious trouble.

I think that was part of jb’s thinking when thier initial offer included a large premium to nk current market value. Over time as the value decreased for multiple issues, legal, engine inspections, debt, the fact the buyout was hostile (non cooperative nk management), ect… they became less enthusiastic to see it through to the end.

Noisecanceller 10-31-2024 08:52 AM


Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo (Post 3849094)

People forget that Ted went very easy on the “flailing firm” argument, where he should have made the case that without the merger, NK is going to fail.


I didn’t forget.

NEVER FORGET!

Chimpy 10-31-2024 01:20 PM


Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3849103)
Are you sure a BK would go to that judge? I think those might be different courts?

Also DOJ might not bother to file another lawsuit to block the merger, especially if they're unemployed which we'll know next week.


you guys are insane if you think the DOJ is going to sue to try and block an F9/NK Merger.

dera 10-31-2024 08:52 PM


Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo (Post 3849094)
He made a bad decision based on idealistic fairy tale land where everyone gets what they want and money isn’t a reality.

I think if he were to see it today, he would realize maybe NK isn’t as financially strong as he, the Feds, and Ted made it out to be.

People forget that Ted went very easy on the “flailing firm” argument, where he should have made the case that without the merger, NK is going to fail.

He didn't go "very easy" on it. He completely dismissed it. Ted said they have a path to profitability and the merger was not necessary for the success of Spirit.

flyboyike 11-01-2024 06:04 AM


Originally Posted by Chimpy (Post 3849210)
you guys are insane if you think the DOJ is going to sue to try and block an F9/NK Merger.

I would say it's unlikely that they would sue using the same arguments that were used in the context of NK/B6, but that does not mean they could not come up with other arguments...

Swakid8 11-01-2024 06:11 AM


Originally Posted by spooldup (Post 3849113)
Lets not act like JBs lawyers actually tried to defend the buy.

They wanted to put a stop to F9 and NK because if we merged, JB would be in serious trouble.

This will keep getting lost in the noise...... JetBlue didn't want to take on Spirit at the agreed price point. It is my firm belief JetBlue used the court room to find a off ramp from the merger... That they found…

fcoolaiddrinker 11-01-2024 06:18 AM


Originally Posted by Swakid8 (Post 3849329)
This will keep getting lost in the noise...... JetBlue didn't want to take on Spirit at the agreed price point. It is my firm belief JetBlue used the court room to find a off ramp from the merger... That they found…

Yeah dropping the appeal a week later after the judge left the door wide open in his summary was a bit telling.

fw90 11-02-2024 05:07 PM


Originally Posted by Swakid8 (Post 3849329)
This will keep getting lost in the noise...... JetBlue didn't want to take on Spirit at the agreed price point. It is my firm belief JetBlue used the court room to find a off ramp from the merger... That they found…

this. AND Young got a 2am phone call from Icahn. His retirement is safe now.

Born2FlyAv8R 11-06-2024 04:36 AM


Originally Posted by fw90 (Post 3849676)
this. AND Young got a 2am phone call from Icahn. His retirement is safe now.

soooooo how long til an official merge announcement?

Halon1211 11-06-2024 06:19 AM


Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R (Post 3850342)
soooooo how long til an official merge announcement?


I think frontier is gonna have some competition now!

if Harris would’ve won, the only thing this administration would allow another Frontier merger.

in January with a Republican DOJ and DOT coming into office, they are going to be really soft on antitrust. I think they would approve just about anything.

frontier might have to pony up some money if they want to secure NK.

I am on my way out of here so I don’t have a dog in this fight if you think I’m being biased.

putzin 11-06-2024 07:00 AM


Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R (Post 3850342)
soooooo how long til an official merge announcement?

Who knows. We’re like the trash sitting on the edge of the street just waiting to get picked up. 🤣

Tranquility 11-06-2024 07:04 AM


Originally Posted by putzin (Post 3850367)
Who knows. We’re like the trash sitting on the edge of the street just waiting to get picked up. 🤣

This is the best analogy... 🤣🤣🤣
Free mattress or couch on the curb!!!
(Who knows what lurks within.). 😬

loudclouds 11-10-2024 04:07 PM

So when are they going to announce a merger? After the inaugeration? Will it be a bidding war now?

putzin 11-10-2024 05:02 PM


Originally Posted by loudclouds (Post 3851313)
So when are they going to announce a merger? After the inaugeration? Will it be a bidding war now?

Nobody knows. Airlines might just come by and dig through the proverbial trash, put the pieces they want in their beat up shopping cart and off they go. Does that include employees, unknown. We might just be the left over shti in the gutter.

PNWFlyer 11-10-2024 05:49 PM


Originally Posted by loudclouds (Post 3851313)
So when are they going to announce a merger? After the inaugeration? Will it be a bidding war now?

it’s kind of like moving to Thailand. Is not a great idea, all you do is eat Thai food very day. I mean how much Thai food can you eat? You get hand jobs. How many handjobs is enough? 1? 2? 5 hand jobs? 10 hand jobs? That’s ridiculous, 20 is way too much. 50 hand jobs?

Halon1211 11-10-2024 06:02 PM


Originally Posted by PNWFlyer (Post 3851329)
it’s kind of like moving to Thailand. Is not a great idea, all you do is eat Thai food very day. I mean how much Thai food can you eat? You get hand jobs. How many handjobs is enough? 1? 2? 5 hand jobs? 10 hand jobs? That’s ridiculous, 20 is way too much. 50 hand jobs?


how much tequila have you drank tonight?

FriendlyPilot 11-10-2024 06:14 PM


Originally Posted by loudclouds (Post 3851313)
So when are they going to announce a merger? After the inaugeration? Will it be a bidding war now?

The debt creates a poison pill for an acquisition. The stock being low doesn't make Spirit "cheap to buy". The debt makes it expensive to buy.

hoover 11-11-2024 04:02 AM


Originally Posted by PNWFlyer (Post 3851329)
it’s kind of like moving to Thailand. Is not a great idea, all you do is eat Thai food very day. I mean how much Thai food can you eat? You get hand jobs. How many handjobs is enough? 1? 2? 5 hand jobs? 10 hand jobs? That’s ridiculous, 20 is way too much. 50 hand jobs?

let us not forget the lady boys.

DumboDrop 11-11-2024 04:30 AM


Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3851332)
how much tequila have you drank tonight?

It's from a reels or something. Pretty funny.

PNWFlyer 11-11-2024 05:48 AM


Originally Posted by DumboDrop (Post 3851363)
It's from a reels or something. Pretty funny.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7b1t...FvcXE0cDduYg==

Jdub2 11-11-2024 06:40 AM


Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3851332)
how much tequila have you drank tonight?

Shut up and let the man cook!!

WHACKMASTER 11-11-2024 05:30 PM


Originally Posted by Halon1211 (Post 3851332)
how much tequila have you drank tonight?

Why does it have to be tequila specifically, Halon? Are you signaling your weakness?

B200 Hawk 11-12-2024 01:47 PM

well this thread can get retired now.

spooldup 11-12-2024 01:48 PM


Originally Posted by B200 Hawk (Post 3851756)
well this thread can get retired now.

no real sources said anything about anything... its all hearsay.

B200 Hawk 11-12-2024 01:51 PM


Originally Posted by spooldup (Post 3851758)
no real sources said anything about anything... its all hearsay.

https://www.wsj.com/business/airline...r-bid-5d492e80

CincoDeMayo 11-12-2024 01:59 PM


Originally Posted by spooldup (Post 3851758)
no real sources said anything about anything... its all hearsay.

You're in denial my man...

spooldup 11-12-2024 02:20 PM


Originally Posted by B200 Hawk (Post 3851759)

I cant read behind the paywall.


Originally Posted by CincoDeMayo (Post 3851760)
You're in denial my man...

not really.

69fastback 11-12-2024 02:30 PM


Originally Posted by spooldup (Post 3851774)
I cant read behind the paywall.



not really.

Cliff notes say, frontier bailed. Spirit bankruptcy in the next few weeks. Already confirmed by guys in the union.

Noisecanceller 11-12-2024 02:50 PM


Originally Posted by 69fastback (Post 3851777)
Cliff notes say, frontier bailed. Spirit bankruptcy in the next few weeks. Already confirmed by guys in the union.


Confirmed by who? They are not privy to that information anytime before Wall Street. They won’t know of a bankruptcy until we all get it straight from the news

Born2FlyAv8R 11-12-2024 02:52 PM


Originally Posted by Noisecanceller (Post 3851786)
Confirmed by who? They are not privy to that information anytime before Wall Street. They won’t know of a bankruptcy until we all get it straight from the news

I dunno - one thing about fastback, he’s been pretty spot on with the calls he’s made previously.

Noisecanceller 11-12-2024 02:55 PM


Originally Posted by Born2FlyAv8R (Post 3851790)
I dunno - one thing about fastback, he’s been pretty spot on with the calls he’s made previously.

Anyone paying attention the last year knew we were headed for bankruptcy.


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