Extreme worst case, junior legacy pilots get furloughed. But still have a career to come back to.

Most likely if this drags on, the legacies will just let their substantial retirements reduce headcount, with short-term staff tuning via voluntary LOA, reduced lines, etc. Furloughs at multi-fleet airlines are waaaay more costly, due to multiple training events for each furlough, then repeated for each recall.

Extreme worst case?? I think you might be seriously underestimating how destructive a global recession can be. There is no guarantee that this mess in Iran ends quickly or cleanly. Add to the fact that the battlefield is on top of one of the most significant costs (Oil) to an airline only exasperates the potential negative impact. Depressed demand and higher operating cost is never good.

We obviously don't know yet.

But I do know in detail how this (ill advised) adventure will be executed. Iran is not likely to be able to interfere with the SoH for too much longer. That's just military math... capabilities, assets, stockpiles.

Plus at some point (if there's not a deal negotiated) we and other nations *will* prioritize to facilitating commerce through the strait. Political reality.

How long it takes the economic fallout to resolve is too complicated for me to guess at.

heez, why are all pilots so doom and gloomy and not forward thinkers? Today it's raining so the world will flood.
Obtuse

I’d wager it’s 1991, 2001, Age 65, and 2008. Plus the end of pensions coupled with the lost decade and food stamp wages at RJ operators in the 1990s and 2000s. Couple all that with the fact that many here on APC are older than most - typically Xers or older and hit more of those speed bumps.

Does it make sense anymore? Recent history and industry consolidation suggests not, but time will tell. Could still be pretty damn rough if you’re at the wrong place.

I missed 1991 but got kicked in the sack on all the others and I just dont see the point of the overly dramatic pessimist.
every contract negotiation and there are many who insist we need to sign yesterday because the economy will collapse tomorrow.
hard to get ahead when people are willing to settle for last weeks wages

How do you know in detail??

Attritions about to hit a grinding halt I’d be very surprised if we run any new hires this year now.

Shrinking to 78 aircraft with these recalls we are going to be overstaffed by 450 Pilots.

Guessing these scenarios are covered extensively in military war college. People who understand how to plan wars can recognize patterns.

How many accepted the recall? Surely not enough to cover March’s attrition…