A week from Nov 1 - too quiet
10-24-2022, 07:20 AM
#1
Gets Weekends Off
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Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 403
A week from Nov 1 - too quiet
Anyone else feel it's way too quiet to be a week out from TA1 closing?
Haven't seen anything on NC since last Wed and it was pretty much "we are waiting for the company..."
One of two things needs to happen:
1) There is large movement in the updated QWL items proposed and economic portions of the TA. I'm not super confident in this. I don't think management has ever seen this as a benefit to them (even though we do) so why change their stripes now?
2) We punt. We go down the road of "throwing" punches. I think in order for this to happen we need this TA to go down in flames with extreme prejudice (like 90%+ No vote)
The first two punches will be filing for mediation by ALPA and the company "doom and gloom" comm of the economy, parking aircraft, and less growth.
What I find strange is again the lack of comm. I know the ALPA BOD was front and center these last 2 weeks. But we literally have only 1 week left to vote on this TA and we only a tiny blurb that mentions "vote closing Nov 1" last Wed.
We don't have any information on the progress of the UPA minus rumors. What I don't like from comm is UAL ALPA not letting our new guys and reminding our old guys what happens next before this TA1 closes...
I think the NC calls an Audible late this week with a new TA2, and the date gets pushed back for road shows and PowerPoints. In a normal cycle, comm would be more "militant" and skeptical and information on SPSC spin up and P2P would have already been in full swing.
Why not put out comm everyday telling everyone to make sure and login to vote, while touting the gains of Alaska in QWL (pay rates meh) and the fact that DL & SWA have filed for mediation (probably can't explicitly tell us to vote No)
We are giving SK and management negotiators so much time, it just doesn't make a lot of sense that we haven't already punted and sent out comm that we won't reach a new TA2 by Nov 1.
So, I'm going to go out on a limb and say we will get some comm late this week on movement from UAL mgt, but it won't be enough, so we'll push back the deadline. UAL ALPA has given SK so much wiggle room, and UAL stock has been pumping since our earnings report.
We are also faced with the upcoming holiday season (Winter is coming). Here's where company and ALPA NC don't want to be negotiating during Thanksgiving and Christmas. The whole ALPA MEC doesn't want to be doing road shows over this time as well (I know they will, but doesn't mean they want to).
With the recalls incoming, in the spirit of the Hamilton musical, will SK throw away "his shot"?
If this closes and voted down with extreme prejudice, the Next plan will have to become the "Next - -" plan. Those orders for Max 10 aircraft (converted to Max 9 as the backup) might get tabled, or threatened at tabling (the proverbial stick).
We are coming down to the wire and we are just mushrooms here in the dark.
Haven't seen anything on NC since last Wed and it was pretty much "we are waiting for the company..."
One of two things needs to happen:
1) There is large movement in the updated QWL items proposed and economic portions of the TA. I'm not super confident in this. I don't think management has ever seen this as a benefit to them (even though we do) so why change their stripes now?
2) We punt. We go down the road of "throwing" punches. I think in order for this to happen we need this TA to go down in flames with extreme prejudice (like 90%+ No vote)
The first two punches will be filing for mediation by ALPA and the company "doom and gloom" comm of the economy, parking aircraft, and less growth.
What I find strange is again the lack of comm. I know the ALPA BOD was front and center these last 2 weeks. But we literally have only 1 week left to vote on this TA and we only a tiny blurb that mentions "vote closing Nov 1" last Wed.
We don't have any information on the progress of the UPA minus rumors. What I don't like from comm is UAL ALPA not letting our new guys and reminding our old guys what happens next before this TA1 closes...
I think the NC calls an Audible late this week with a new TA2, and the date gets pushed back for road shows and PowerPoints. In a normal cycle, comm would be more "militant" and skeptical and information on SPSC spin up and P2P would have already been in full swing.
Why not put out comm everyday telling everyone to make sure and login to vote, while touting the gains of Alaska in QWL (pay rates meh) and the fact that DL & SWA have filed for mediation (probably can't explicitly tell us to vote No)
We are giving SK and management negotiators so much time, it just doesn't make a lot of sense that we haven't already punted and sent out comm that we won't reach a new TA2 by Nov 1.
So, I'm going to go out on a limb and say we will get some comm late this week on movement from UAL mgt, but it won't be enough, so we'll push back the deadline. UAL ALPA has given SK so much wiggle room, and UAL stock has been pumping since our earnings report.
We are also faced with the upcoming holiday season (Winter is coming). Here's where company and ALPA NC don't want to be negotiating during Thanksgiving and Christmas. The whole ALPA MEC doesn't want to be doing road shows over this time as well (I know they will, but doesn't mean they want to).
With the recalls incoming, in the spirit of the Hamilton musical, will SK throw away "his shot"?
If this closes and voted down with extreme prejudice, the Next plan will have to become the "Next - -" plan. Those orders for Max 10 aircraft (converted to Max 9 as the backup) might get tabled, or threatened at tabling (the proverbial stick).
We are coming down to the wire and we are just mushrooms here in the dark.
10-24-2022, 07:41 AM
#2
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 122
Originally Posted by Zoomie
Anyone else feel it's way too quiet to be a week out from TA1 closing?
Haven't seen anything on NC since last Wed and it was pretty much "we are waiting for the company..."
One of two things needs to happen:
1) There is large movement in the updated QWL items proposed and economic portions of the TA. I'm not super confident in this. I don't think management has ever seen this as a benefit to them (even though we do) so why change their stripes now?
2) We punt. We go down the road of "throwing" punches. I think in order for this to happen we need this TA to go down in flames with extreme prejudice (like 90%+ No vote)
The first two punches will be filing for mediation by ALPA and the company "doom and gloom" comm of the economy, parking aircraft, and less growth.
What I find strange is again the lack of comm. I know the ALPA BOD was front and center these last 2 weeks. But we literally have only 1 week left to vote on this TA and we only a tiny blurb that mentions "vote closing Nov 1" last Wed.
We don't have any information on the progress of the UPA minus rumors. What I don't like from comm is UAL ALPA not letting our new guys and reminding our old guys what happens next before this TA1 closes...
I think the NC calls an Audible late this week with a new TA2, and the date gets pushed back for road shows and PowerPoints. In a normal cycle, comm would be more "militant" and skeptical and information on SPSC spin up and P2P would have already been in full swing.
Why not put out comm everyday telling everyone to make sure and login to vote, while touting the gains of Alaska in QWL (pay rates meh) and the fact that DL & SWA have filed for mediation (probably can't explicitly tell us to vote No)
We are giving SK and management negotiators so much time, it just doesn't make a lot of sense that we haven't already punted and sent out comm that we won't reach a new TA2 by Nov 1.
So, I'm going to go out on a limb and say we will get some comm late this week on movement from UAL mgt, but it won't be enough, so we'll push back the deadline. UAL ALPA has given SK so much wiggle room, and UAL stock has been pumping since our earnings report.
We are also faced with the upcoming holiday season (Winter is coming). Here's where company and ALPA NC don't want to be negotiating during Thanksgiving and Christmas. The whole ALPA MEC doesn't want to be doing road shows over this time as well (I know they will, but doesn't mean they want to).
With the recalls incoming, in the spirit of the Hamilton musical, will SK throw away "his shot"?
If this closes and voted down with extreme prejudice, the Next plan will have to become the "Next - -" plan. Those orders for Max 10 aircraft (converted to Max 9 as the backup) might get tabled, or threatened at tabling (the proverbial stick).
We are coming down to the wire and we are just mushrooms here in the dark.
Haven't seen anything on NC since last Wed and it was pretty much "we are waiting for the company..."
One of two things needs to happen:
1) There is large movement in the updated QWL items proposed and economic portions of the TA. I'm not super confident in this. I don't think management has ever seen this as a benefit to them (even though we do) so why change their stripes now?
2) We punt. We go down the road of "throwing" punches. I think in order for this to happen we need this TA to go down in flames with extreme prejudice (like 90%+ No vote)
The first two punches will be filing for mediation by ALPA and the company "doom and gloom" comm of the economy, parking aircraft, and less growth.
What I find strange is again the lack of comm. I know the ALPA BOD was front and center these last 2 weeks. But we literally have only 1 week left to vote on this TA and we only a tiny blurb that mentions "vote closing Nov 1" last Wed.
We don't have any information on the progress of the UPA minus rumors. What I don't like from comm is UAL ALPA not letting our new guys and reminding our old guys what happens next before this TA1 closes...
I think the NC calls an Audible late this week with a new TA2, and the date gets pushed back for road shows and PowerPoints. In a normal cycle, comm would be more "militant" and skeptical and information on SPSC spin up and P2P would have already been in full swing.
Why not put out comm everyday telling everyone to make sure and login to vote, while touting the gains of Alaska in QWL (pay rates meh) and the fact that DL & SWA have filed for mediation (probably can't explicitly tell us to vote No)
We are giving SK and management negotiators so much time, it just doesn't make a lot of sense that we haven't already punted and sent out comm that we won't reach a new TA2 by Nov 1.
So, I'm going to go out on a limb and say we will get some comm late this week on movement from UAL mgt, but it won't be enough, so we'll push back the deadline. UAL ALPA has given SK so much wiggle room, and UAL stock has been pumping since our earnings report.
We are also faced with the upcoming holiday season (Winter is coming). Here's where company and ALPA NC don't want to be negotiating during Thanksgiving and Christmas. The whole ALPA MEC doesn't want to be doing road shows over this time as well (I know they will, but doesn't mean they want to).
With the recalls incoming, in the spirit of the Hamilton musical, will SK throw away "his shot"?
If this closes and voted down with extreme prejudice, the Next plan will have to become the "Next - -" plan. Those orders for Max 10 aircraft (converted to Max 9 as the backup) might get tabled, or threatened at tabling (the proverbial stick).
We are coming down to the wire and we are just mushrooms here in the dark.
10-24-2022, 07:52 AM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: 787 Captain
Posts: 1,512
Originally Posted by EwrRocks
Now with new American AIP don’t be surprised if Nov 1st gets punted to Dec 1st so they can evaluate and assess next steps.
I have no doubt that they're as ready for that fight as we are.
10-24-2022, 08:59 AM
#6
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 122
Originally Posted by AxlF16
I don't think we'll punt. On or about Nov 10th the voting dynamics of the MEC will be EXTREMELY different than now. IMO the company will either agree to a solid TA that can be accepted prior to Nov 10th, or they'll dig in their heels for the longer fight with us.
I have no doubt that they're as ready for that fight as we are.
I have no doubt that they're as ready for that fight as we are.
10-24-2022, 12:58 PM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,803
Originally Posted by Zoomie
We are coming down to the wire and we are just mushrooms here in the dark.
Settle in.
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