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Originally Posted by robthree
(Post 2388913)
I think you're right about Spirit being a more realistic bite, but then I think about the next move. If we were to get Spirit, then AA and DL would look to pick up a mid major too. If WE can't get B6 because we are in EWR and they are in JFK, how can AA or DL justify taking B6? They both already have big JFK and BOS bases, and AA also has MIA. B6 is by far the biggest mid-major. DL has a thousand more pilots than us. AA has two thousand. B6 might be a better fit in terms of competition, with WN, but then the all-737 fleet plan goes toes up for most of the decade.
If there is further consolidation, unless B6 is a buyer (Frontier, Allegiant, Alaska!?!), UA merging with B6 is the most apt combination in terms of network synergies and the least likely to draw the attention of anti-trust regulators in the DOT. Assuming that the Trump Administration has even nominated someone for that job. Frontier if any |
Originally Posted by MaxQ
(Post 2389104)
You are most correct sir
I just always used to write it lower case "q". So the capitol made it a bit less obvious to me. Anyway that's my excuse for having to ask. |
Originally Posted by 757Driver
(Post 2389114)
I'd venture to guess that AK will buy or merge with B6 before we do and it won't be questioned. Would complete the picture for AK and fill in the missing East Coast part of the equation.
But who knows. |
Also, isn't Alaska dumping the East Coast VA stuff?
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Rumors have been going for a while at Allegiant that UAL is buying us. Especially since our ex managers keep washing up there, and United suddenly seems interested in "basic coach", used Airbi, and smaller airports. We have zero overlap.
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Originally Posted by svergin
(Post 2388447)
JetBlue's market cap is $7.5B plus they have $5B in debt. So buying them at market value would cost about $12.5B. It would be even stupider than Alaska spending effectively $4B for Virgin America. Given how management is throwing cash at stock repurchases, there is no way they would dilute the stock with an all stock merger and there isn't enough cash on hand to do it.
I predict a big order in the fall for jets and United will grow organically. |
Originally Posted by ecam
(Post 2390210)
Rumors have been going for a while at Allegiant that UAL is buying us. Especially since our ex managers keep washing up there, and United suddenly seems interested in "basic coach", used Airbi, and smaller airports. We have zero overlap.
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Originally Posted by ecam
(Post 2390210)
Rumors have been going for a while at Allegiant that UAL is buying us. Especially since our ex managers keep washing up there, and United suddenly seems interested in "basic coach", used Airbi, and smaller airports. We have zero overlap.
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Originally Posted by svergin
(Post 2388447)
JetBlue's market cap is $7.5B plus they have $5B in debt. So buying them at market value would cost about $12.5B.
. JB actually has paid off quite a significant portion of debt and has a quite favorable Debt to Earnings ratio. (In the .3 range). United's is around 1, AA's around 2.3, SWA .01, DAL .4 Alaska's jumped from 0 to .7 with the purchase of VA this year. They had a ton of cash to burn clearly. So no...JB really isn't carrying a high debt load. |
Originally Posted by svergin
(Post 2390289)
Oh great, another SLI to go through.
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Originally Posted by SUX4U
(Post 2390356)
I would hope UALPA would do a fine job of fencing off anything above the A320 for many many years to any ULCC pilot group. I'd say they base it off how many years our youngest pilot has to go until retirement and that number would be a fair fence in my book.
Considering Frontier's payrates for Captain top out at about 6th year narrowbody FO payrates at UA, I think I know where they would end up. Then you wouldn't need to worry about a fence! |
Originally Posted by SUX4U
(Post 2390356)
I would hope UALPA would do a fine job of fencing off anything above the A320 for many many years to any ULCC pilot group. I'd say they base it off how many years our youngest pilot has to go until retirement and that number would be a fair fence in my book.
Or a staple job would work as well.... |
Originally Posted by Triumph
(Post 2390395)
Or a staple job would work as well....
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I don't see a merger happening any time soon at UA. Definitely not Frontier. DOT would take issue with the United monopoly in Denver. Last I heard UA already had 40% of DEN flights and SW had 33%.
On anther note, all things 787 now has a UA delivery date for the 787-10 in 08/18! Now, if we could just get a replacement for our aging 737-700's and 319's. Maybe 50 of the technologically superior CS 300's? Also, let's go ahead and trade out of the 100 Max 10's for 100 797's and buy 100 A-321NEO's. United, PM me if you need help with the fleet plan. I'm here to help.:p |
I know the LCC guys are salivating at the idea of coming in as a senior WB Capt. I think the #1 JB pilot is what a 2000 hire? I don't think an LCC or ULCC SLI isn't something we really want right now. Curious to see how the VA/AK SLI shakes out.
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Originally Posted by stis202
(Post 2390550)
I know the LCC guys are salivating at the idea of coming in as a senior WB Capt. I think the #1 JB pilot is what a 2000 hire? I don't think an LCC or ULCC SLI isn't something we really want right now. Curious to see how the VA/AK SLI shakes out.
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Originally Posted by stis202
(Post 2390550)
I know the LCC guys are salivating at the idea of coming in as a senior WB Capt. I think the #1 JB pilot is what a 2000 hire? I don't think an LCC or ULCC SLI isn't something we really want right now. Curious to see how the VA/AK SLI shakes out.
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If UAL bought Allegiant would they have to fire Ca Alex again? Apparently threating to kill your FO with your brand new H&K .40 FFDO weapon isn't that funny of a "joke" after all.
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Originally Posted by Half wing
(Post 2390448)
I don't see a merger happening any time soon at UA. Definitely not Frontier. DOT would take issue with the United monopoly in Denver.
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Originally Posted by Airhoss
(Post 2390774)
If UAL bought Allegiant would they have to fire Ca Alex again? Apparently threating to kill your FO with your brand new H&K .40 FFDO weapon isn't that funny of a "joke" after all.
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Fleet plan
Originally Posted by Barley
(Post 2390848)
It's my understanding Frontier only has six gates in Denver now. They spread their network out over multiple domiciles and satellite hubs a couple years ago. Buying them wouldn't mean a Denver monopoly.
And even if it did, if swa has 33% cap in Denver. That ain't that bad. I wonder what the spread is in DTW, MSP, SLC, and ATL for DAL. How is the capacity spread in CLT, & DFW for AMR? Just frustrated Grrrr On the other hand... Organic growth would be soooo much better. New routes. Fresh faces. Moving on up. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
Originally Posted by JoePatroni
(Post 2390558)
The Northwest-Republic merger would be a good read before any salivating starts.
Originally Posted by stis202
(Post 2390550)
I know the LCC guys are salivating at the idea of coming in as a senior WB Capt. I think the #1 JB pilot is what a 2000 hire? I don't think an LCC or ULCC SLI isn't something we really want right now. Curious to see how the VA/AK SLI shakes out.
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Originally Posted by Grumble
(Post 2390931)
Yup! Blue book/green book and 20 year fences. Anyone who thinks they got screwed should in UAL/CAL merger, should try venting to one of those guys.
Study up in the above merger, the only windfall they'd be allowed is our pay rates and work rules. No way a LCC merger goes through without substantial fences. Just being picky. It was "red book" nwa and "green book" republic. Blue book are post merger hires. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
Originally Posted by svergin
(Post 2390567)
If we ever see it. They need a contract 1st and its going to take a LONG time for Alaska management to agree to a contract. They'll fly the groups separate and play them off each other like they do Horizon/Alaska pilots.
Originally Posted by SUX4U
(Post 2390406)
I was under the impression a stable job between two ALPA carriers isn't possible.
It just has to be fair and equitable. Theoretically, stapling can be fair and equitable to an arbitration panel. |
Originally Posted by Grumble
(Post 2390931)
Yup! Blue book/green book and 20 year fences. Anyone who thinks they got screwed should in UAL/CAL merger, should try venting to one of those guys.
Study up in the above merger, the only windfall they'd be allowed is our pay rates and work rules. No way a LCC merger goes through without substantial fences. The takeaway I got was that once those fences came down 20 years later Republic guys jumped to the top. If that happened here my single digit retirement seniority would take a substantial hit. I could see it passing with a yes vote by the majority of people who don't have 20 years left in the game. |
Originally Posted by stis202
(Post 2391027)
The takeaway I got was that once those fences came down 20 years later Republic guys jumped to the top. If that happened here my single digit retirement seniority would take a substantial hit. I could see it passing with a yes vote by the majority of people who don't have 20 years left in the game.
The red book was suing until the bitter end that the a330 was a dc10 replacement. So you have that to possibly look fwd to. I think we should face the fact that the nwa republic merger might have been put together even more poorly than the UAL CAL merger integration. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
Originally Posted by stis202
(Post 2391027)
The takeaway I got was that once those fences came down 20 years later Republic guys jumped to the top. If that happened here my single digit retirement seniority would take a substantial hit. I could see it passing with a yes vote by the majority of people who don't have 20 years left in the game.
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Originally Posted by SUX4U
(Post 2391061)
Exactly why my proposal of fences until our youngest pilot retires has to be a must in the event we ever got tied up with a ULCC.
Doubt such things would happen as well as United buying jetblue. From our side nobody I have talked with thinks they are just going to roll over to widebody skipper. I think JetBlue pilots are far more realistic. |
Originally Posted by pilotpayne
(Post 2391094)
So like a 40 year fence?
Doubt such things would happen as well as United buying jetblue. From our side nobody I have talked with thinks they are just going to roll over to widebody skipper. I think JetBlue pilots are far more realistic. Those guys you speak of that wouldn't expect a widebody captain position are being realistic. However they sure as hell would love to beat me and thousands of other FO's on the legacy side of the list to that seat a few years down the road. So fences until our youngest retires or a staple should be the baseline opener for any ULCC being purchased by a Legacy. |
Originally Posted by SUX4U
(Post 2391201)
It's only a matter of time before one of the big 3 rolls the dice with the purchasing of a ULCC.
Those guys you speak of that wouldn't expect a widebody captain position are being realistic. However they sure as hell would love to beat me and thousands of other FO's on the legacy side of the list to that seat a few years down the road. So fences until our youngest retires or a staple should be the baseline opener for any ULCC being purchased by a Legacy. |
Originally Posted by stis202
(Post 2391027)
The takeaway I got was that once those fences came down 20 years later Republic guys jumped to the top. If that happened here my single digit retirement seniority would take a substantial hit. I could see it passing with a yes vote by the majority of people who don't have 20 years left in the game.
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Originally Posted by DaMnad
(Post 2391231)
There is NOT a vote
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Originally Posted by pilotpayne
(Post 2391094)
So like a 40 year fence?
Doubt such things would happen as well as United buying jetblue. From our side nobody I have talked with thinks they are just going to roll over to widebody skipper. I think JetBlue pilots are far more realistic. Secondly anything less than a 10 year fence would mean nothing to 80% of the seniority list. First of all, even with a 100% status and category merger, plus adjustments for differential in pay and work rules, the most senior JetBlue pilot would be "seniority fenced", meaning he wouldn't have the seniority to just jump into a WB left seat. Let's say he ended up around 6,000 out of 13,000 on the list, which is probably 8-10 years from WB Captain. Sure he could hold WB FO, but there would have to be a fence on that as well. It would still take 10 years to hold a seat, so why even have a fence for Captain? I don't like fences. They kick the problem down the road and have unintended consequences as are happening now. A seniority list integration should take that into account. Flying WB Captain is a career expectation, which unlike a fence, doesn't have a 5 or 10 year expiration. Our 2,000 or so pilots under the age of 40 will agree with that. I sympathize with those former United pilots who went from retiring at around 400 on the list to over 2,000 because of the merger, even though they will be NB Captains sooner (many of them are now). I didn't experience that and I'm grateful. A bad integration with a carrier like JB just exacerbates that problem. |
Originally Posted by pilotpayne
(Post 2391206)
Sure that could be the opener and I would expect nothing less. United pilots should look out for united pilots. But with us both being Alpa, I am sure there would be some type of fence but I don't think it would be 40 years. at some point you would need to be realistic just like you would want us to be. But it's all theory and I really doubt it happens.
So realistic expectations from your side of the fence? Just curious if the "no chance" did happen, what in your opinion would be reasonable for such a odd ball integration? |
Originally Posted by SUX4U
(Post 2391658)
It's all fun and games to speculate the what if's with the disclaimer of it likely not going to happen. However after I saw my previous airline (Republic) purchase not one but two major airlines plus a turbo prop operator within a few months of each other, I will never doubt the possibility of a "no chance" merge/purchases.
So realistic expectations from your side of the fence? Just curious if the "no chance" did happen, what in your opinion would be reasonable for such a odd ball integration? Please, please, please realize this is meaningless internet entertainment and nothing more!
Originally Posted by Sunvox
(Post 2260541)
I hesitate to enter the fray over SLIs, but what the heck it's all "Pie in the Sky" anyways.
Today's SLIs are fairly simply to calculate given the propensity of the arbitrators to use the new found algorithmic tool. As such one can hazard a guess how they would approach a UAL/JBLU SLI. Stovepiped Category and Class sorted by a percentage usage of longevity. The end result would put the most senior JBLU pilot beneath the most junior WB captain at UAL in a Stovepiped list (which is not the same as the actual current bidding list). Without digging into actual numbers and just going on my own guesses AND JUST FOR FUN!!! A UAL/JBLU SLI MIGHT look something like this: pilots UAL JBLU WB-Cap 2500 0 NB-CAP 3000 1200 WB-FO 3000 0 NB=FO 3500 1200 RJ-Cap 0 400 RJ-FO 0 400 What does that mean? It means JBLU Airbus captains fall from 2500 to 8500 seniority, Airbus FOs fall 8500 to 11500 and RJ pilots are on the bottom of the list, and I would expect a 5 year fence to be included as well. Keep in mind that within those groupings the sort is then dependent on what percentage is given to longevity. At 100% longevity the categories are sorted purely on date of hire. That would put the most senior JBLU captain pretty far down the list since they are (I think) 1999 hires and as a result would end up much closer to 6000 than 2500. Now before anyone gets their panties in a bunch just remember this is an internet forum and we're talking about a rumor and nothing more so this is pure entertainment. Also, I want to emphasize for any JBLU pilot that might read this who doesn't fully understand what I mean by Stovepiped that the actual most senior RJ pilot will not end up on the bottom of the list because in a Stovepiped list it is assumed every pilot bids the most senior position possible which is, of course, never the case in the actual world. My primary point is that recent SLIs have been somewhat mechanical as the "science" is sort of settled at the moment given that all 3 of the recent legacy mergers were Stovepiped Category and Class. |
Originally Posted by Sunvox
(Post 2391776)
Please, please, please realize this is meaningless internet entertainment and nothing more!
1) ALPA merger policy states that the factors that must be considered in constructing a fair and equitable integrated seniority list, in no particular order and with no particular weight, now include but are not limited to career expectations, longevity, and status and category. Therefore, Sunvox, I think you are giving away the store before even considering the issues present in such an asymmetric combination. ;)2) Multiplication by zero equals zero 3) In the absence of a collective bargaining agreement, JB pilots all are working under individual, and personally signed, employment agreements that explicitly state that they have zero long term (greater than one year) employment expectations in the event of a transaction. |
Originally Posted by cadetdrivr
(Post 2391844)
Then in that spirit here's my thoughts considering:
1) ALPA merger policy states that the factors that must be considered in constructing a fair and equitable integrated seniority list, in no particular order and with no particular weight, now include but are not limited to career expectations, longevity, and status and category. Therefore, Sunvox, I think you are giving away the store before even considering the issues present in such an asymmetric combination. ;)2) Multiplication by zero equals zero 3) In the absence of a collective bargaining agreement, JB pilots all are working under individual, and personally signed, employment agreements that explicitly state that they have zero long term (greater than one year) employment expectations in the event of a transaction. |
Originally Posted by Flyingphi
(Post 2391860)
Since JetBlue voted in ALPA, no one signs a contract and seniority/longevity is protected like any other air carrier. Therefore, your last point is moot.
Could you please share the scope, successorship, and fragmentation language of the in-force collective bargaining agreement? (Hint: it's not actually protected unless there's a basis for protection. But if you are hanging your hat on McCaskill-Bond I'd like you to ask a former Airtran pilot about Guadalupe Holdings. :( ) |
Originally Posted by cadetdrivr
(Post 2391873)
Awesome.
Could you please share the scope, successorship, and fragmentation language of the in-force collective bargaining agreement? (Hint: it's not actually protected unless there's a basis for protection. But if you are hanging your hat on McCaskill-Bond I'd like you to ask a former Airtran pilot about Guadalupe Holdings. :( ) So staple the JetBlue pilot group? |
Originally Posted by pilotpayne
(Post 2391895)
So staple the JetBlue pilot group?
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