Any guesses as to when there might be new hires classes again? At some point there has to be classes again right,sometimes I wonder.

New bid opens today and the unfilled spots will be for the next new hire class. I have no hard knowledge but I would expect classes to start in JAN after the holidays. If we are lucky they will run 1 big class a month in NOV and DEC.

The reality is we are in the slow season right now and we don't need the new hires until next summer. We barely made it through this summer so hiring is absolutely necessary, just be patient.

Your FIRST lesson as an airline pilot, when a company feels they can't possibly make it through summer without you, you'll be in class.

When they think they can fill the schedule with one less pilot, they'll feel free to cast you aside.

Do not misplace loyalty in this business.

MoP, when does the bid close? Floating in the pool and am curious as to bid timing and any (cross-the-fingers) possible class Nov/Dec. Thanks.

OCT 6 is the closing date. the bid is not as big as I thought it would be but there will still be unfilled spots. Well know more on OCT 7/8.

Where are you getting this info from? First it's wrong. The first new-hire, returning pilot class is slated for FEB. There is only one class, and that might get moved to MAR. This is directly from the company new hire coordinator.

Buzz Kill

Thanks though

I didn’t state anything as a fact.

There was supposed to be classes starting in NOV then they said no not tell MAR......MAYBE they will bring them back to NOV.

For new hires to get a class, there have to be unfilled vacancies. There are no 737, bus or meaningful 756 vacancies. The 756 in DEN will probably be filled with current pilots.


Once the awards are done, any unfilled vacancies will be allocated to new hires. Since there are no slots meant for new hires, no classes. JAN-FEB is the current guess for classes. Even then, the classes can be changed on a moments notice. Earlier or later. No guarantees.


But in summary, since there are no unfilled vacancies to be anticipated, no classes any time soon.

Considering the MIN/MAX number for ALL FO 737 bases (except GUM) are the same, I think we can anticipate unfilled vacancies......

Maybe. Remember the MIN-Max sheet is kind of pie in the sky anyway. Essentially meaningless. Manpower can make those numbers say anything they want, then adjust the trickle downs in any fashion they choose.

My guess is they are fat in at least a couple of domiciles, so they will temper the trickle downs to thin the ranks for fall and winter flying.

That is incorrect.

Once it is published it is controlling. So, in this case, the following seats that don't have advertised vacancies do have matching min and max:
EWR 777 CAP

DCA 737 CAP
IAH 737 CAP
DEN 737 CAP

IAH 787 CAP


DCA 737 FO
EWR 737 FO
CLE 737 FO
ORD 737 FO
IAH 737 FO
DEN 737 FO

IAH 787 FO


So, anybody who takes a bid out of one of those seats creates a required backfill vacancy into the seat they left. Additionally, LAX 777 FO only has a difference of 1 between min and max, so if more than one LAX 777 FO takes a bid, then the 2nd and beyond must be backfilled.

Long story short, the only way there wont be unfilled vacancies on this bid is if a whole bunch of 320 and 756 FOs take all the 737 FO bids.

That's some "plan" Mr. Kirby has. Meanwhile DAL and SWA hiring continues unabated. Rome burns while Kirby fiddles.

Anyone else thinking this Kirby guy was forced into place to assure a short-term gain in the stock and exit plan for our friends at PAR and Altimeter?

Maybe Kirby will buy Air Berlins 60+ A320's

Someone is going to get them.

MH just signed to take 6 A330's from AB.

What are you talking about? If he was put in for a short term gain by PAR then he FAILED epically. Our stock is down 40%:confused:

Delta hires more pilots because they have a fleet of 100 seaters that we don't.

SW has hired fewer pilots than us over the same period of time.

Don't forget FedEx... 400/yr. That's nearly 10% of the pilot force. Lots of guys have started recently either from UAL or have swimming in the pool at UAL and couldn't wait anymore for a class.

AA hiring plenty. UPS. JBU... on and on.

His plan was to stop capital spending. PAR and Altimeter counted on that shooting the stock price up and it hasn't. Now were so far behind in hiring and aircraft acquisition that we're a distant #3 size wise. The "plan" isn't working and Kirby's flailing. SWA is on track to hire 1000 pilots so I beg to differ regarding that.

Behind in ACFT acquisition? Where have you been man? we have the first of 161 737MAX's showing up next year, we just took delivery of 14 777-300s and ordered 4 more due next year, the first of our 787-10s start showing up next year and we have 4 more 787-9s due at the end of this year.

DL has 858 jets and will be parking 176 MD80s by 2020 that takes them down to 682 aircraft in the next 2 years plus the rest of their 747s by the end of this year. They will be taking a few older 321s, the Cseries and a handful of 350s but other than that they don't have any aircraft on order......No MAXs, No NEOS, No 777. At best DL breaks even.

AA has 947 aircraft. they are parking most of their 767-300s most of their 757s and the rest of their MD80s over the next couple years. thats close to 100 aircraft. They start taking the first of their MAXs this year at best they will break even.

UA has 749 aircraft with over 180 on order over the next couple years and we are not parking anything now that the 747 is gone. So we should have 850-900 jets, basically even with DL within the next few years.

If Kirby was brought in to curb capital spending it looks like he failed at that too since he upped the A350 order, upped the MAX order and bought 4 more 777-300s....:rolleyes:

So Delta and AA will be static huh? Wonder why on earth they are hiring so many when we are hiring so few?

Hope your right but if you'd like to make a wager, I'd say your wrong. We will languish behind the rest in distant 3rd place as long as PAR and Altimeter have anything to do with it.

whats the old adage thats thrown around by United pilots? Hire right up until the day they furlough?

DL just parked the first of their MD80s, 170 to go by 2020. I bet you see hiring at DL fall way off in 2018 and 2019 as they shuffle all those MD80 pilots around. When the shuffling is done they will be the same size as they just don't have the aircraft on order to grow. AA has a ton more retirements than us so they are hiring more as they are replacing 1-1 on aircraft, but again they don't have enough aircraft on order to grow. We on the other hand our aircraft on order are for growth.

Id wager that by 2025 all three majors (AA, DL, UA) will all be within 100 acft of each other. We may still be third but it wont be distant.

How's that koolaide tasting? :D Almost all of those aircraft orders were on the books before Kirby got here-oh and speaking of aircraft orders, lets not forget the 65ish 737's he cancelled in step with signing on 60+ 50 seater agreements, and early retirement of the 747. You talk about AA and Delta retiring all their old 76's and 75's and we are keeping ours indefinitely. I would wager ours leave roughly around the same time. And the 350's? They're just kicking that can down the road-I bet we still never see those on property.

I used to share your enthusiasm, but it has been one disappointment after another with this guy. 1200 new hires, no wait, 500 new hires, no wait.. 0 new hires...

Hopefully I'm wrong on this, and your enthusiasm is warranted.

As a total, sure. But for their size and as a percentage of pilots on property, what's it look like? Make sure to include our stellar less than 300 for 2017 and 2018's projected 450

I belive at OBAP it was published that SW was just shy of 900 this year.

AA hiring is ok, but "plenty" may be a stretch when you remove the number of flows. They'll probably take roughly the same amount off the street or a little less than we do next year.

And the question STILL lingers, how do we staff them? This year HAD 2 BI classes planned months ago, then it went to what, 6? Then reduces to 4? And now "TBD".......

DAL may taper off their hiring, who knows? OR, they were just smarter at getting ahead of the curve than Willis Tower was.....

Same here. 800->650->400 = less than 300 (253) for 2017, ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha......

Can’t argue with that. We are WAY behind the curve.

Yep hiring sucks, but there are other factors at play beyond Kirby is out to screw everything up.

1) TK is a construction mess
2) We quite rapidly displaced the most senior fleet with the whale
3) Failed to train bumps to allow effective redeployment (cough cough
34 TDY's into 777 SFO next month)
4) Completely bungled closing the Chief Scabliner base

Incompetence has it's price unfortunately. Training resources are tapped.

Yep hiring sucks, but there are other factors at play beyond Kirby is out to screw everything up.

1) TK is a construction mess
2) We quite rapidly displaced the most senior fleet with the whale
3) Failed to train bumps to allow effective redeployment (34 TDY's
into 777 SFO next month :rolleyes:)
4) Completely bungled closing the Chief Scabliner base

Incompetence has it's price unfortunately. Training resources are tapped.

Barring a merge/acquisition, next year will be interesting on a staffing level.

Such a damn fine post by intrepid the interwebz put it up TWICE!!!!

And I’ll post it again because he is completely correct.

Totally wrong about Delta. They are taking delivery of 45 A321's, 100ish 737-900's and 75 C100's. If anything, they will be ahead when the 88 fleet is gone.

Delta has already taken 84 of its 130 737-900ERs on order with its newest one being delivered SEP 1. They have 25 of the 45 A321s already on property with the last one deliver AUG 11th.

So basic math says 141 deliveries. Still short of a 1-1 MD80/90 retirement and, as I said basically flat growth. The only way DL grows, as of what we know today, is if they keep the MD-90 into the 2020's.

So how am I totally wrong? If you have facts put them out there. I basically just googled DL aircraft orders and used Airfleets as a source.

MOP is fake news! Sad.

:D

1) Common excuse used with great success, and bought, by many pilots.

2)Those displacements didn't go to the 737, 320, or 756. So why no new hire training in those fleets?

3) They failed to offer vacancies for the right seat 777 in SFO. That's why the TDYs. They thought they'd get more bumps from the -400 to the 777 and were wrong, as usual.

4) Absolutely. Who's ultimately responsible for that?

MOP is destined for a management roll. Then he can more easily sell the koolaid he's swimming in.

Side note for all those who believe that the TK construction is limiting training.....

ALL sims are available, accessible, and up and running and have been for months. The construction is not a training constraint. The different routes you have to walk in order to get to them may be different but the sims and FTDs are up and running. Stop using the construction as an excuse.

Nah no management for me, zero desire. I’m a life long line guy. I just refused to be depressed all the time.

You don't have to be gullible to be happy. And being a realist isn't the recipe for depression.

Agreed. Just returned from TK, it was a ghost town. Lots of sims with open doors and drawbridges down.

Ran into a friend that applied for the 737 PI position a few months ago. They were looking for 27-30 new 737 PI's and after he talked to the Fleet Captain, they only hired about 15.

One of the APD's said he was going to "Job Share" status, month in TK, month on the line, from his current full time TK Fleet position.

I asked around a bit, and no one seems to know what's going on.

Something is clearly going on. Pretty much everyone else is hiring at max capacity and we are at a complete standstill. Everyone says it’s due to training capacity, but you go to TK and it’s pretty empty. The few people you talk to are either there for recurrent or landings. Something is up.

Maybe Spirit is gonna buy United ;)

100 of the maxes were converted to the 10 and deferred till 2020.