"Earnings Live"
 

An unusual amount of hoopla leading into Tuesday's earnings announcement. Anyone wanna guess at any big announcements?

I'm guessing about three dozen new build 767-300s and the new uniform reveal. No used Airbii, I think that ship has sailed.

It has been quiet... almost a little too quiet on the rumor front lately.

I bet it’ll be just as much of a disaster as the last one and nothing good for us will come out of it.

No used Airbii except for these you mean . . . :D

https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/a...a319s-2018.jpg

Heard the German govt blocked the Easyjet Airbus aquistion, it was part of their Air Berlin asset purchase approval.

Yeah, whoops. ;) I meant the rumored purchase of a few dozen more additional used Airbii like Grumble alluded to. An additional purchase jived with the moves last fall to start ramping up hiring to >1000 this year... and the subsequent retreat down to more mundane pilot retirement replacement numbers suggests the deal fell through or has been delayed considerably. I'd be happy to be wrong.

January airbus fleet update says 7 additional 319 from CSN with option for 7 more in 2019.

So few more coming.

Another whoops, shouldn't have posted just before bedtime - the "Earnings Live" event is actually Thursday and the regular earnings report/conference call is today. So far, nothing unusual on today's release from what I've read/heard.

Perhaps Thursday will be more interesting, but maybe it will just be today's info repackaged for the worker bees.

I think today is just a release of the numbers. Thursday is the Q&A and the forward looking statements.


From the company earnings report:


"UAL management will host an Investor Event at 4:30pm ET today to discuss fourth-quarter and full-year 2017 earnings, outline 2018 priorities, provide an update on United's network strategy and deliver a financial update. During this presentation, UAL will provide full-year 2018 guidance including earnings per share and establish long-term earnings targets. Please visit ir.united.com to access the first-quarter 2018 investor update, the webcast of the event and the company's presentation made available during the webcast, the entirety of which will be available on the website at the conclusion of the event."

Company fleet plan shows 3 additional used 767-300’s second half of 18.

http://ir.united.com/~/media/Files/U...e-earnings.pdf

They are planning to grow RJ flying as a key part of their strategy. What the heck!!! 31 added RJs in 2018!!

"We expect to pay our pilots the best among our peers" and "we have a pilot contract due in January 2019j"

signed a deal to bring on 3 767-300ERs!!

Those are the rumored Hawaiian jets.

But allegedly, we lose one to be retired.

Oscar says they are committed to be the first major to plan for pilot contract on time and highest amongst peers

24 more mainline aircraft. While I don't like to see the RJ number increase, mainline's also increasing.

Watching CNBC right now - Phil LeBeau is saying that United plans on growing ASMs 4-6% for 2018, 2019, 2020. Not only are they going to have to add those aircraft to grow by that number, they're also going to have to increase daily utilization rates on aircraft.

We should also watch RJ reliability numbers. I don't think they'll be able to find enough pilots to add that much RJ capacity - my understanding is that regional carriers are already struggling with finding pilots.


I am very glad to hear 4-6% growth per year; that's a reversal of our previous (lack of) growth trends.

OMG - Kirby is negotiating in public! He just said he expects to get ALPA to agree to trade fifty 50 seaters for 50 larger RJs. He is smokin' crack!!!

Where are you hearing these quotes? Is he on a conference call?

On the earnings call. Am I sensing some surprise to hearing about the desire to get us to give up more scope?

No surprise from me of course thats what he wants. I thought the call was on thursday, thats why I wasn't looking for it today.

You've seen and heard all this before. Enjoy charm school. You'll be getting a heaping dose while there I'm sure.

Not according to fleet plan I posted above from today’s results release. At least not in 18 shows net gain of 3 767-300’s.

I think he’s just saying that to reduce the negative analyist comments because of anounced growth next three years.

The only way I see The MEC agreeing to any more 70/76 seaters and then the pilots is if it’s flown by UAL mainline pilots at a mainline size appropriate rate, additionally with scope protections to prevent loss of 737 and Airbus flying. Otherwise no deal and a much longer traditional section 6 negotiating cycle.

On the plus side they are reiterating that UAL is done shrinking and will grow to compete where we have geographic strengths.

I can call this one from the cheap seats. Kirby tells he need relief on scope and we say No. He then says ok, we'll let you guys fly them but we won't be budging on the already agreed upon crappy rates that we gobbled up when we fell over ourselves ratifying the extension.

But Mr. Kirby, says we, Delta's pay rates are way higher than ours for those particular RJ's. Bet you can guess what Kirby's reply will be. :rolleyes:

Yes, honestly I am very surprised. I think Mr. Kirby is smart so I assume he knows the pilot group is unified on the issue of Scope. One poster suggested that the comment was meant to appease Wall St. and had no real weight. I am simply surprised at the comment. The reality is the company is adding 31 fifty seat planes next year because they are "choked" and can not add 72 seat planes. So to me Scope is working and now we have the upper hand and THAT may give Todd the bargaining chip we need to finally get RJ flying "in house".

I listened to the call, and multiple analysts asked about scope. Kirby did mention wanting a higher ratio of 76 seaters, but actually defended the pilot group's animosity towards scope relief. He mentioned cities like Rochester, MN, are ideal rj destinations but management in the past used them on routes like EWR-ATL while furloughing. He said it was the wrong move and that UA pilots are rightfully mistrustful of scope relief.

In fact, Oscar and Kirby both stood up against some analyst comments when it came to labor costs on a couple of questions. Pretty refreshing change from Smisek but still worries me on the activist investor front.

Said "stay tuned" with regards to a 100 seat aircraft.

Oh, and Oscar also said he wants an "on-time" industry leading contract for the pilot group.

They were under serious fire from the Wall Street gang the entire call for the projected 4-6% growth.

As for RJ's coming in house, I don't know if we will ever see that. Staffing with mainline pilots is one thing, but what if now you have to add mainline FAs, MX, rampers, etc? Two biggest costs are fuel and labor and now DL and AA can bleed you to death.

It should be an interesting 12 months.

During the JCBA negotiations the company proposed a provisional concept of bringing a limited number of 50 seats to mainline. Flown with mainline pilots but staffed by regional FA’s and below the wing with regional staffing. Both MEC’s decided to pass on it at that time.

Nothing stops the company from bringing 70-76 seaters flown by mainline pilots and staffed with regional FA’s and below the wing regional employees. Last time it was too outside the box perhaps not now with proper protections not lose any Airbus or 737 flying.

With 24 mainline frames coming this year and lots of -9/-10 Maxes over the next few years I'm beginning to wonder if the 4-6% growth is already baked in with no need for any additional mainline buys. Too much math and time involved in figuring it out either way. I do think we'll see some retirements announced before long of the oldest 756s.

When the rumor of an order of new build 767s got going last fall, the numbers mentioned in the press were pretty high (50-100). With the 3 used Hawaiian frames finally publicly confirmed, I think even 50 is ridiculously high. Three dozen for us tops, BA would have to find homes elsewhere for more than that and I'm not sure they can. And, if we could find a dozen or so additional used frames then I think we'd pass on new 767s entirely until the 797 arrives.

You betcha. Thanks for the summary, didn't get the chance to catch the call live. Wondering if any more shoes will drop on Thursday... uniforms? Hope they end up looking better than Alaska's new ones.

We could be buying Expressjet...few articles have been published about it over last several months. We are only legacy that doesnt own regional feed. We need to streamline our ops.

Expressjet is losing more pilots than any other regional. United needs to step up and offer major contract gains to keep regional pilots around. Without a reliable regional feed, there is no mainline.

After United reported earnings, I would say most airline stocks are a short except SkyWest since United will expand regional flying. Increasing capacity will drive ticket prices down a lot further. United and others cannot compete with LCCs like Spirit/Frontier. These pilots are willing to fly mainline aircraft for more than 50% less than mainline! Passengers have been clear, they don’t want to pay much for their tickets.

The domestic/foreign low cost airlines will eventually cause major problems for mainline and drive pilot wages lower...if you can’t see this, you’re blind!

So what’s your solution? Shrink and give up more market share? Don’t compete? No **** domestic and foreign LCC’s are problematic for US majors. Luckily there is this thing called a pilot shortage coming. Have you seen Spirit’s TA? Pretty good for what they are. UA stock will continue to get beat up(down 10% today) until we get our capacity to where we want it. Oh well, it’s what we need to do and helps slow the growth of LCC’s.

Sweet flame bruh. How’s that ideal time in the crash pad going?

The 50 seaters are the least fuel efficient highest CASM aircraft in the United fleet, the passengers hate them and they drive the brand straight into the ground. If it wasn't for scope choke on the 76 seaters the 50 seater would already be dead.

All 50 seaters going away will HELP United compete......if you don't see that you are blind!

Well, a 24 year old, hunched over a laptop, wearing boxers and his black flying sox, is less visually horrific than a 63 year old 570 performing the same maneuver.

Come to think of it. same same. LOL

I rarely disagree with Joe, including this time. Couldn't agree more.

And your stock buyback program will nab even more shares!!!

Double bonus!

You must be the blind one! United is adding 50 seat flying! AirWisconsin? Duh!! ExpressJet is adding more 50 seat jets as well! United passengers absolutely hate the entire United product! 50 seat jets are much more comfortable rather than being trapped in a middle seat (no legroom) mainline flight. Passengers would rather have the E175 vs the E145. I hope you don't expand the E175 flying, but prepare to lose more market share. United is the best short out of all the airlines. $$$

You’re either an idiot or a troll. Enjoy that RJ pay, does it come with the koolaid or is that separate?

def a troll especially with only 8 posts :cool: